STATE OF EMERGENCY BRINGS SOME CALM TO EKITI STATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000095

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA
WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAOLO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI
SUBJECT: STATE OF EMERGENCY BRINGS SOME CALM TO EKITI STATE

REF: 06 LAGOS 1297

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Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary. Although controversial, President
Obasanjo's declaration in October 2006 of a state of
emergency in Ekiti State has provided citizens a respite from
the State's tumultuous political climate. Special
Administrator Tunji Olurin has brought some order to Ekiti.
However, the party primary season in December was filled with
controversy and defections in both major parties, the
People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the Action Congress (AC).
Indeed, the respite may be nearing the end of its life-span
as April elections promise more controversy and possible
political violence. End summary.

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Fayose Still in Hiding, but
His Failures Are Apparent
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2. (U) Poloff visited Ekiti State January 22-23. Ekiti, an
agricultural state, has little industrial development. There
was no new construction in Ado-Ekiti except for a guest house
complex nearing completion. In September 2006, Governor Ayo
Fayose's re-election campaign was getting into gear but then
the spotlight was shined on his political miscreancy by
opponents and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission
(EFCC). This catalyzed a chain of fast-moving events which
ended his control of the State house in October 2006. With
possible criminal charges facing him, Fayose has been on the
lam since then. The once-ubiquitous posters and billboards
extolling Fayose were almost all gone. Ironically, a large
billboard advertising Fayose's infamous 1.2 billion naira
($9.4 million) chicken farm was still standing. Media focus
on the disappearance of the money intended for the chicken
farm hotly pursued Fayose during his final year; this became
one of the major scandals leading to his descent from high
office.


3. (C) Chris Fejemifo, Chairman of the Nigerian Union of
Journalists and Director of Ekiti State television, could
find no encomiums for his former boss. Ekiti, a state since
1996, lost a great deal under Fayose and his cronies,
Fejemifo said. Fayose claimed he improved Ekiti's roads, but
Fejemifo pointed out the State paid three times more per
kilometer of construction than neighboring states. Even
then, the completed roads were poor quality "surface
improvements", Fejemifo commented. (Note: Fayose suspended
Fejemifo for 16 months for what Fayose saw as negative
political commentary on the local Ekiti television station.
End note)


4. (U) More adept at playing the fugitive than the role for
which he was elected, Fayose has been able to stymie further
EFCC investigation. In November 2006, the Federal Court in
Akure ruled Fayose could not be put on trial because he was
still formally a governor and thus constitutionally immune
from prosecution, a ruling which the EFCC has been trying to
overturn. The police investigating the August 2006 murder of
People's Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Ayodeji Daramola
arrested a Fayose aide, but the investigation has been
languishing and there was no certainty anyone will be tried
for this homicide.

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Olurin Administration Brings Calm
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5. (C) President Obasanjo chose retired general Adetunji
Olurin as Special Administrator for Ekiti State. According
to sources, Olurin was planning to run for the same Ogun
Central senate seat as President Obasanjo's daughter Iyabo
until Obasanjo conveniently appointed Olurin to his current
post in Ekiti. According to Fejemifo, Olurin's tenure has
improved the situation. Olurin has brought a measure of
peace to the state.


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6. (C) Olurin had declared January 22-23 a holiday in Ekiti
to encourage residents to register to vote. Fejemifo told
Poloff that Ekiti residents would not be able to get their
salary or be hired unless they could show they had registered
with the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC). Given this
type of coercion, registration lines understandably were
quite long in Ado-Ekiti.

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New Controversy Stalks the PDP
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7. (U) With Fayose discredited, the PDP nominated for
governor Segun Oni, the third place finisher in the primary
balloting. However, the nomination was plagued with
controversy as the top two finishers, Yinka Akerele and Segun
Ojo, claimed the right to a run-off election.


8. (U) In talking to Poloff and Polspec Ekiti PDP party
chairman Ropo Adesanya explained the top two candidates did
not meet the criteria for selection as governor. Adesanya
pointed out that primary electoral guideline 48(f) of the PDP
constitution allows the national committee to select a
gubernatorial candidate. The mistake of Akerele and Ojo was
to believe the primary vote was the only test, Adesanya
explained. The purpose of the primary was to weed out some
candidates, not to definitively select one of them, Adesanya
asserted. Any candidate must also receive favorable
intelligence reports and security reports from the police and
the Special Security Service (SSS). Adesanya said it was
necessary to remove the first two candidates because both had
ties to Fayose.

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Party Elders Promoted Candidates
Without Ties to Fayose
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9. (C) Adesanya bristled when Polspec asked about the
influence of ten elders in the Ekiti PDP. There were no
"So-called elders in charge", Adesanya responded. While the
elders tried to influence the PDP, the party consulted the
elders but did not allow them to select a candidate, Adesanya
claimed. (Comment: Adesanya was an ally of Fayose who helped
engineer Fayose's election in 2003. In fact, the elders
traveled to Abuja and complained the Ekiti PDP was trying to
swing the nomination toward two Fayose cronies, who would
presumably protect the former Governor from future
prosecution. End comment)


10. (C) However, according to Fejemifo, Oni captured the
nomination largely because of the influence of President
Obasanjo's senior private attorney, Afe Babashola. A bitter
Fayose opponent, Babashola and party leaders friendly to him
reportedly convinced Obasanjo that Akerele's and Ojo's close
association with Fayose made them poor choices for the PDP.


11. (C) Oni, on the other hand, was not allied with Fayose.
He was a member of the E-11 group, a group of Ekiti
professionals that included Action Congress (AC)
gubernatorial candidate Kayode Fayemi and attorney and 2003
gubernatorial candidate Femi Falana. This group of Ekiti
professionals has become a growing force in local politics.
Falana was a supporter of PM News, which published stories
detailing the corrupt dealings and mismanagement of the
Fayose administration. A friend of EFCC Chairman Ribadu,
Falana gave the EFCC information instrumental to its downing
of Fayose.

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Opposition: Fayose Will be an Issue in the Campaign
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12. (C) Encouraged by the turmoil in the PDP, 14 candidates
competed for the AC nomination, which Kayode Fayemi won.
Ekiti AC Chairman Awe told Poloff Fayemi won the most wards,
and Awe was confident that momentum was on the AC's side.
However, some reports indicated Fayemi did not win the most

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votes, but rather received the nod because he was the
favorite of Lagos Governor Bola Tinubu and the AC hierarchy.
Following the primaries, 12 AC candidates defected to the PDP.


13. (C) Despite the PDP's and Obasanjo's attempts to disown
the former Governor, a vengeful AC planned to use Fayose's
failed tenure to win support. According to Awe, the PDP
failed to rule because of leadership problems. Awe pointed
out that Fayose's failure led to the removal of the entire
leadership in Ekiti.


14. (C) However, some observers saw other possible winners
besides Fayemi. Musa Ayeni, who served as Ondo State Deputy
Governor in 1992, secured the All Nigeria People's Party
(ANPP) nomination. After a relatively easy primary, Fejemifo
believed Ayeni has the hearts and minds of many people and
has a chance to win outright provided the contest is a fair
one.
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Comment
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15. (C) In the murky world of Ekiti politics, few things are
certain besides more intrigue. With nowhere else to go,
Fayose's allies will likely remain in the PDP. Additionally,
with State Administrator Olurin being a de facto PDP
incumbent, the PDP retains the inside track as the election
nears. However, significant popular sentiment rests with the
opposition. Many believe the Fayose debacle should disbar
the PDP from another chance in Ekiti. With both sides
sensing a chance at victory, neither will be in the mood to
back down for the other. Political violence and intimidation
will likely come into play. In this case, Olurin's role as
Ekiti Administrator will be critical in whether Ekiti
electoral terrain is generally level or skewed in favor of
the PDP. End comment.

BROWNE