10,000 ARMED CRIMINALS, NIGER DELTA APPROACHING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000090

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: 10,000 ARMED CRIMINALS, NIGER DELTA APPROACHING
CIVIL INSURRECTION

REF: A. LAGOS 64

B. LAGOS '06 1408

C. LAGOS '06 1419

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Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B) and (
D)


1. (C) Summary. Secretary of Bayelsa State Government Dr.
Godknows Igali believes that the release on bail of four
jailed militant youths will result in the release of two
Italian employees of Agip held hostage since December 7;
kidnappers are willing to release the Lebanese hostage.
Igali sees the Niger Delta on the brink of civil
insurrection, with 10,000 armed youths engaged in criminal
activity, organized in military-style camps. Igali called
for a "post conflict"-style demobilization involving training
and job placement for youths with support from the
international community as the most effective way to resolve
the crisis. Absent the political and economic commitment of
the Government of Nigeria and the support of the
international community, it is difficult to see how Igali's
idealistic appeals to these youths can win out over the
enticements of guns and ill-gotten gains offered by the arms
dealer leadership of the Movement for the Emancipation of the
Niger Delta (MEND). End Summary.

RELEASE OF FOUR MILITANTS MAY RESULT IN RELEASE OF ITALIANS
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2. (C) Bayelsa Secretary to the State Government (SSG),Dr.
Godknows Igali, told Deputy Director for West African Affairs
Don Heflin the December 21 release of jailed militant Gani
Adams, leader of the militant pan-Yoruba Oodua People's
Congress, nearly derailed efforts to secure the release of
two Italian Agip employees in captivity since December 7.
(Ref B) Militants wanted to know why jailed leader Dokubo
Asari was not released when Adams was, Igali said. One
Italian had already been released on January 17. On January
25 the militants told Igali they would release the hostages
if four jailed youths would be released on bail of naira 5
million (approximately USD 40,000). In his January 27
conversation with Heflin, Igali was confident the Italians
would be released in early February. Igali said Agip has
already lost naira 160 million (approximately USD 1.25
million) trying to secure the release of its employees.


3. (C) Igali said he has dedicated himself to ending Niger
Delta militancy by the end of February. On the evening of
January 18, Ijaw leaders, including retired army Generals and
youth leaders from across the Delta met to develop a strategy
to address the issue of growing unrest. They decided to go
from camp to camp to talk to the youths and persuade them to
put down their weapons. This effort will go on for an entire
week. They will appeal to the freedom fighters and ask them
to stand firm in rejecting criminal conduct. (Note: Igali
reiterated his claim that the Movement for the Emancipation
of the Niger Delta (MEND) is a loose organization of militant
groups, of which Henry Okah (Ref C) functions as a kind of
leader. End Note.) Okah is very difficult to deal with,
Igali lamented, because he will not deviate from his
decisions. However, Dr. Igali found it promising that the
hostages' release is not strongly linked to demands for the
release of the jailed former governor of Bayelsa State,
Diepreye Alamieyeseigha. He commented that the militants'
willingness to exchange the Italians for four jailed youths
instead of jailed militant leader Dokubo Asari or
Alamieyeseigha suggests their interests are not ideological
and that they may be susceptible to moral pressure.

NIGER DELTA STRUGGLE DETERIORATES
--------------


4. (C) Igali estimated there are 10,000 armed youths engaged

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in criminal activities in the Niger Delta, which is nearing a
state of civil insurgency, Igali recently told President
Obasanjo. Igali has been distressed when he sees AK 47s,
rocket propelled grenades (RPGs) and hears talk of missiles
and more complex weapons while in the creeks. Henry Okah,
called "Master" by the youths, supplies the youths with
weapons, Igali said. Okah claims to have 20,000 followers in
camps throughout the Delta, although Igali thinks 10,000 is a
more accurate number. The camps are run like the military
and youths spend two weeks in and two weeks out of the camps.
This lifestyle is a way of passing time for these unemployed
young men. Igali is deeply disturbed by this trend, and
wonders when he steps into the camps whether Nigeria has
already slipped into a state of civil war. Igali confided to
us that youths have succeeded in capturing him on two
separate occasions.


5. (C) Igali told Heflin that militant leader Alhaji Farah
Dugogo and jailed militant leader Dokubo Asari both traveled
to Libya where they were introduced to militant Islam. Both
are driven by an interest in more equitable resource control.
Igali estimated Tom Polo, the leader of the Federated Niger
Delta Ijaw Communities (FNDIC),has between two and three
thousand armed youths at his camp. Other leaders playing
prominent roles in the Delta in 2005-2006 are Commander
Africa, Joshua McGuyver, and Prince Igido of Bayelsa State.
(Ref A) Since 2005, Igali has noticed an upsurge in criminal
groups which have no interest in resource control. Camps and
phones of both the militants and criminal groups have been
opened to Igali because he has gained the youths' trust.
Igali believes his intervention has prevented several serious
incidents.

POLITICAL & PRACTICAL RESPONSES FOR THE NIGER DELTA
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6. (C) The release of jailed militant leader Dokubo Asari
and former governor of Bayelsa State, Diepreye
Alamieyeseigha, are two political issues which need to be
addressed before the Niger Delta problem can be resolved,
Igali advised. Igali has asked President Obasanjo for
Asari's release, hoping that it will ease tensions in the
Delta. The Federal Government has asked to be presented with
a letter listing three individuals willing to guarantee that
Asari will not flee as a prerequisite to his release. Four
prominent Ijaws from Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Delta, and Bayelsa
states will sign the letter.


7. (C) The release of jailed former Bayelsa Governor
Diepreye Alamieyeseigha would also help calm the situation,
Igali said. Igali commented that Alamieyeseigha is sick, no
longer has armed youths around him, and can no longer be
considered a security threat. Therefore he could be released
without danger to the GON, Igali reasoned. Alamieyeseigha
still garners a lot of sympathy in Delta and Ondo states
because of his Ijaw ethnicity and the role he has played in
resolving disputes between Ijaws and other ethnic groups.
According to Igali, if accepted abroad for medical treatment,
Alamieyeseigha will return to Nigeria. Alamieyeseigha
remains in contact with many governors and is friends with
Vice President Atiku; as a result, Alamieyeseigha wants to
stay outside the country until Obasanjo is out of office.


8. (C) Igali has organized Ijaw leaders, retired generals
and activist youths who will visit the camps in early
February to persuade youths they should be Ijaw "freedom
fighters", not criminals, Igali said. The Niger Delta needs
to be looked at as a "post-war" situation requiring a
professionalized de-mobilization process. Mass training
programs could provide the youths with skills. This would be
in the interest of the international oil companies (IOCs).
Igali suggested some youths could be employed in security
companies while others could join the military. Igali said

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the Bayelsa State Government needs support in these efforts;
the militants are becoming increasingly sophisticated, as
evidenced by their successful attacks on oil rigs as much as
50 nautical miles from shore.

IGALI'S POLITICAL FUTURE AS YET UNDECIDED
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9. (C) According to Igali, President Obasanjo asked him if
he was interested in becoming governor, but told Igali he did
not want to force him if he was unwilling. Igali commented
that the political atmosphere in Bayelsa is tense, although
everyone agrees the PDP gubernatorial candidate needs to be
someone who both understands the Delta and can rally
political support. PDP strength and his own name recognition
mean Igali could run a short campaign.

COMMENT
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10. (C) Igali paints the most plausible picture we have of
MEND: a loose association of groups organized in
quasi-military camps and equipped with sophisticated weapons.
Igali's post-conflict model for demobilizing the youths is a
good one; it remains to be seen whether he can convince
President Obasanjo to take the steps necessary to effectuate
it. Absent political and economic commitment by the
Government of Nigeria, and the support of the international
community, it is hard to see how Igali's appeals to youth can
win out over the enticements of guns and ill-gotten gains
offered by the current situation. End Comment.


11. (U) AF/W Deputy Director Don Heflin cleared this cable.
BROWNE