Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07LAGOS89
2007-02-07 15:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Lagos
Cable title:  

TINUBU CHARTS THE AC'S COURSE IN THE ELECTION

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM NI 
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RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHOS #0089/01 0381517
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 071517Z FEB 07
FM AMCONSUL LAGOS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8475
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 8303
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 0116
RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ 0096
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 0103
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000089 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA
WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAOLO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: TINUBU CHARTS THE AC'S COURSE IN THE ELECTION

REF: 06 LAGOS 1398

LAGOS 00000089 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (b and d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000089

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA
WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAOLO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: TINUBU CHARTS THE AC'S COURSE IN THE ELECTION

REF: 06 LAGOS 1398

LAGOS 00000089 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: In a January 29 conversation with the Consul
General, Lagos Governor Bola Tinubu stated he would suggest
to his old friend Vice-President Atiku Abubakar to step down
from the presidential race. Tinubu thinks his friend's
chances are nil given the strength of presidential enmity
against Atiku. In place of Atiku, Tinubu wants an Action
Congress (AC) ticket of House Speaker Aminu Masari and Senate
President Ken Nnamani (Both are currently in the ruling
People's Democratic Party (PDP)). Tinubu predicted the GON
will manipulate the election to assure the PDP's Umaru
Yar'Adua's victory. Tinubu blamed the failure of an AC-All
Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) merger squarely on the
imperious behavior of ANPP candidate Muhammadu Buhari.
Tinubu remained confident the AC would retain its Lagos power
base. The Lagos Governor foresaw mass protests in Lagos
should the PDP attempt to "steal" the State on election day.
End summary.

--------------
Tinubu Proposes a New AC Ticket to Atiku
--------------


2. (C) In a January 29 conversation with the Consul General,
Lagos Governor Bola Tinubu quipped President Obasanjo and his
aides have mishandled Vice-President Atiku. By publicly
berating Atiku and trying to drive him from office by
visiting indignity after indignity on him, the Government has
generated more sympathy for Atiku than he could have done
himself. While they publicly cheer the powerful, the
Nigerian people sympathize with the underdog in their hearts,
explained Tinubu. By stripping Atiku of the endowments of
office, Obasanjo has turned the Vice-President into such an
underdog in the hearts of many. Wisdom would have counseled
the PDP to handle the Atiku affair with finesse; however,
with delicacy being a concept alien to the minds of Obasanjo
and his top political advisors, they have sought to publicly

browbeat Atiku. In doing so, they have generated more bad
will for themselves, contended Tinubu.


3. (C) Despite what he saw as Atiku's growing popularity,
Tinubu characterized himself as a realist who grasped the
ineluctable fact Obasanjo would never allow Atiku the
presidency. With this in mind, Tinubu planned to travel to
Abuja accompanied by a hefty morsel of an unsolicited and
potentially unwelcome proposal for his friend Atiku. Tinubu
would ask Atiku to eschew his presidential ambitions and
assume the role of "statesman or guardian of democracy".
Instead of running for office, Atiku would convert himself
into a campaigner for free and fair elections, for the end of
the People's Democratic Party (PDP) as the majority party
and, of course, for a new Action Congress (AC) presidential
ticket that would assure economic development and further
democratization, according to Tinubu.


4. (C) Tinubu would suggest a new AC ticket of House Speaker
Aminu Masari from Katsina State and Senate President Ken
Nnamani from Enugu State. Both are currently PDP members but
both are also very disenchanted with party machinations at
the national level and within their respective states. The
two lawmakers are well respected by fellow Assembly
colleagues. Such a ticket would fortify the National
Assembly against further intrigue by the Presidency,
increasing its independence, Tinubu asserted. Tinubu
predicted members of the National Assembly maltreated by the
PDP in the primaries would gravitate to the AC and help the
party shore its base if this ticket could be established.


5. (C) A Masari-Nnamani ticket would also garner a lot of
public support as both men have been seen as competent in
their roles, Tinubu reasoned. Many PDP and All Nigerian
People's Party (ANPP) partisans, infuriated over how
presidential candidates in their parties were chosen behind
closed doors, might migrate to the AC. However, Tinubu did
not know if Atiku would accept his proposal. (Comment: An
old friend of Atiku, Tinubu will be placing a lot of strain

LAGOS 00000089 002.2 OF 003


on their friendship if he follows through on his idea. Atiku
seems committed to running and having already inhaled the
scent of the campaign trail might prove reluctant to stop
now. While the proposed new ticket has some attraction, it
is improbable. Both Masari and Nnamani are in the PDP.
Defection to the AC would jeopardize their National Assembly
leadership positions as well as scuttle any possible
settlement regarding their post-election roles currently
being negotiated with the PDP hierarchy. End comment)

--------------
Tinubu Warns of PDP Election Overreach
--------------


6. (C) Notwithstanding his enthusiasm for a new AC ticket,
Tinubu thought victory improbable because the PDP was
determined to "cook the books" so Umaru Yar'Adua could win
the presidency. Tinubu, a long time associate of Yar'Adua's
deceased brother General Shehu Yar'Adua, surprisingly said he
had no problem with a Yar'Adua victory and the two were good
friends. Lagos would not erupt if Yar'Adua won. Lagosians
nor most southwesterners would not take to the streets to
protest for Buhari or Atiku for that matter, he measured.


7. (C) However, Tinubu foresaw a problem if the PDP tried to
claim too many state, local, and federal offices they
actually did not win in the election. This would force the
various opposition parties into a dilemma where they would
have to accept abject surrender or to unite in protest
against a PDP power arrogation. If the PDP tried to "steal"
the Lagos governorship, Lagos would ignite, Tinubu
forecasted. However, if the PDP allowed the ANPP to increase
the number of its northern governorships and the All
Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) to win a couple of
governorships in the Southeast, there would be no generalized
national unrest, Tinubu postulated.

-------------- -
AC-ANPP Alliance Falters, Tinubu Blames Buhari
-------------- -


8. (C) While talks between the AC and ANPP continue, they
have been desultory. An AC-ANPP alliance was at best a long
shot, Tinubu commented. Expressing scant regard for Buhari's
political skills, Tinubu placed the failure at the feet of
ANPP presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari. Tinubu, a
southern Muslim, gauged Buhari as a land-locked northern
candidate with little appeal across the south, where most
people saw him as a religious bigot and regional chauvinist.
Buhari was more intolerant than Obasanjo, charged Tinubu.
Buhari also was being ill-served by a corps of second-rate
advisers with a narrow vision of what Nigeria should be,
Tinubu remarked.


9. (C) Tinubu's sources within the PDP told him Obasanjo
wanted Buhari to win the ANPP nomination so the PDP could
beat him again. Obasanjo hoped that a second defeat would
destroy Buhari's political future but also demonstrate that a
person of Buhari's northern chauvinistic ilk could no longer
lay claim to the national mantle. Consequently, to set the
stage for this epic battle against this perceived embodiment
of northern supremacy, Obasanjo actively pressured ANPP
governors to withdraw their claim for the party nomination so
Buhari could have it.


10. (C) Tinubu claimed that a few days before the ANPP
national convention, northern governors received visits from
the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC),in a
situation similar to what happened to southern governors
vying for the PDP presidential nomination. The
investigations ended when the ANPP governors sidelined
themselves so Buhari could win the ticket. Now that Buhari
has the nomination, Obasanjo is putting similar pressure on
ANPP governors to not fund Buhari's campaign. According to
Tinubu, Buhari's will be a cash-strapped campaign if ANPP
governors do not contribute.

--------------
AC Stabilizes and Consolidates in Lagos

LAGOS 00000089 003.2 OF 003


--------------


11. (C) Tinubu commented that after initial defections from
the party over its nomination of Babatunde Fashola for the
Lagos gubernatorial race, the party has stabilized and
actually gained ground against the PDP. For instance, the AC
has attracted disgruntled elements of the PDP in Lagos state.
Adeseye Ogunlewe, former Federal Minister of Works and once
ardent Tinubu opponent, has now joined the AC. Several key
advisors of the late Funsho Williams have also defected from
the PDP to the AC, Tinubu beamed. These defections have
brought a large part of the Williams' campaign machinery with
them. The Williams faction was the largest in the Lagos
State PDP. Without it, the PDP in Lagos will be crippled,
explained the Governor. Tinubu predicted Fashola would win
70 percent of the Lagos vote.


12. (C) Tinubu was also negotiating with Hilda Williams,
Funsho's widow, about cooperating with the AC. Hilda
believed she won the Lagos PDP primary but had victory
snatched from her by legerdemain. According to Tinubu, PDP
gubernatorial candidate Senator Musiliu Obanikoro has been
dating Obasanjo's daughter Iyabo, now running for a senate
seat in Ogun State. According to Tinubu, Iyabo convinced her
father to intervene on behalf of Obanikoro. (Comment: Once a
close associate of Tinubu, Obanikoro defected from the
Alliance for Democracy (AD) to the PDP. Tinubu's opinion of
the Senator is obviously biased. While Tinubu's attribution
of Obanikoro's primary victory may be touched by malice,
Tinubu's claim to have won over much of Williams' camp has
been verified. End comment.)

--------------
Comment
--------------


13. (C) A realist, Tinubu does not envision an Atiku victory
despite his long years of friendship to the Vice-President.
Tinubu's estimation that the election results will be
significantly manipulated unfortunately stands as a realistic
appraisal. While we think his idea of a Masari-Nnamani
ticket intriguing, it also belies his usual pragmatism. This
is the political equivalent of pulling a rabbit out of a hat.
It would take magic. Returning to a more pragmatic mode,
Tinubu's assessments of the AC-ANPP alliance and of Buhari's
cachet in the south are sound.


14. (C) While recent defections from the PDP in Lagos have
mended some of the tears in the fabric of the AC in Lagos,
Tinubu's optimism about the race is inflated. The PDP is
almost salivating over Lagos and will do its utmost to win
here. While Tinubu believes the result is foregone, a more
objective observer would assert the battle for the State has
just started. Finally, Tinubu's prediction of political
unrest if the PDP overreaches is significant. He sees
violence in the south more likely to occur as a response to
disputed gubernatorial and local races, rather than in
reaction to the presidential outcome. End comment.

BROWNE