NIGERIA SEEKS ADVICE FROM PRESTIGIOUS ECONOMIC,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000663

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOE FOR GPERSON, CGAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017
TAGS: EPET ENRG PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA SEEKS ADVICE FROM PRESTIGIOUS ECONOMIC,
LEGAL GROUPS

REF: ABUJA 2082

Classified By: Acting Consul General Vicki Hutchinson for reasons 1.4 (
B) and (D)


1. (C) Summary: In meetings with Theodore Craig, Office of
Policy Planning, U.S. Department of State, Mansur Ahmed,
Managing Director of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group
(NESG) and Wole Olanipekun, former president of the Nigerian
Bar Association, said President Yar'Adua has asked advice
from professional groups outside government. The President
has appointed Ahmed to the National Energy Council, which
will supervise the oil, gas, and power reform committees
charged with restructuring Nigeria's energy sector, and has
invited the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) to serve on the
Electoral Reform Panel. Both Ahmed and Olanipekun were
clearly curious about what the President would have to do to
gain high-level recognition from the United States. End
Summary.


2. (C) During a September 28-29 visit to Lagos, Theodore
Craig, Adviser on West African Affairs, Office of Policy and
Planning, U.S. Department of State, held meetings with Mansur
Ahmed, Managing Director of the Nigerian Economic Summit
Group (NESG) and with Wole Olanipekun, former President of
the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA).

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NESG Advises Vice-President; Ahmed On Energy Reform Panel
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3. (C) Ahmed told Craig that the NESG has already advised
Vice President Goodluck Jonathan in a number of critical
areas, including the Niger Delta crisis, civil service
reform, improving Nigeria's infrastructure and education
system. While Ahmed said he saw some positive work on the
Niger Delta being done as the government opened dialogue with
militants, he commented that reform of the education sector
would also need close contact with stakeholders.


4. (SBU) The NESG, which recently held its annual summit,
strives to explain the economic consequences of policy to
government officials and politicians, Ahmed said. Academics
and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are now members of
the NESG and participate in the dialogue with government.
Ahmed said he had recently been named a member of the
National Energy Council, which will supervise the work of the
oil and gas and power reform committees charged with
restructuring Nigeria's energy sector. (Note: Ahmed became
Managing Director of NESG in 2004 after retiring from the
NNPC. He is also Chairman of the indigenous First Fossil
Nigeria Ltd, a support services company for the oil and gas
industry. End Note.)

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Yar'Adua's "Hands Off" Approach to EFCC, ICPC
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5. (C) Ahmed believed the Economic and Financial Crimes
Commission (EFCC) will continue to be a major anti-corruption
mechanism and that Yar'Adua will not meddle in the EFCC's
work as did his predecessor. The EFCC made mistakes under
Obasanjo as it became a partisan body that did not follow the
rule of law, Ahmed said. However, under Yar'Adua, the EFCC
will not have the same level of access as it did under
Obasanjo. People already have tried to influence Yar'Adua to
intervene in the EFCC's work but he has thus far refused,
Ahmed said. The personalities of key actors has created the
current rift between the EFCC and the Attorney General
(Reftel).


6. (C) Chief Wole Olanipekun, former president of the
Nigerian Bar Association (NBA),told Craig the Independent
Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC) is less in the news than
the EFCC, in part because of the reserve exhibited by the
Chairman, a former Justice of the Supreme Court. The ICPC's
writ is to investigate cases of corruption, while the EFCC's
mandate is to investigate economic and financial crimes,
including money laundering, not corruption per se.
Olanipekun stressed that the EFCC can be an effective body if

LAGOS 00000663 002 OF 003


it operates according to the rule of law.

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Tribunal Decision Against Yar'Adua Unlikely
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7. (C) The quality of Nigeria's political leadership is
improving, Ahmed asserted. Yar'Adua and Jonathan are the
first President and Vice president to have college and
advanced degrees, he said, but the National Assembly and
local governments are improved as well, he claimed. Leaders
are "more focused and nationally aware" because they are
being driven by the President to focus on and act according
to the rule of law. Ahmed said there was plenty of
trepidation at the federal level over the election tribunals,
but he does not expect a tribunal decision that would turn
the current administration out of office. Rather, he
anticipates that the People's Democratic Party (PDP) will
"find a solution" to the challenges. This expectation is
based on the fact that other parties have agreed to work with
President Yar'Adua, even the All Nigeria People's Party
(ANPP) which has withdrawn its case against the President,
thus isolating its own candidate Mohammadu Buhari. Moreover,
the PDP is quietly conducting a major reorganization which
likely involves discussions with other parties, Ahmed
asserted.

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Is Electoral Reform Panel the Best It Could Be?
-------------- --


8. The Electoral Reform Panel has been met with ambivalence
in Nigeria; Ahmed believes it needs the injection of some
more "lively sectors" in order to succeed. He noted that the
President's choice for Chairman of the Panel, Chief Justice
Mohammed Uwais, had been Chief Justice during the 2003
elections and his handling of the tribunals was not viewed as
independent. The Nigerian Bar Association was asked to join
the Electoral Reform Committee and will do so, Olanipekun
said. The NBA is preparing a series of recommendations for
presentation to the panel, he said. Like Ahmed, Olanipekun
criticized the Chairman of the Electoral Reform Committee,
saying he was spending too much time in the United States and
other countries to learn about their electoral systems, when
he should be in Nigeria.

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Challengers Face Heavy Legal Burden in Tribunals
-------------- ---


9. (C) Olanipekun told Craig that Nigeria's election law
places a heavy burden on a candidate challenging the outcome
of an election. Challengers face an uphill battle, and the
process moves at a snail's pace, he said. Nonetheless,
Olanipekun said he thought the tribunals would return some
credibility to the election process and viewed the eight
cases pending against Yar'Adua as a positive sign. (Note:
Olanipekun is defending the President in at least one of the
cases. End Note.)

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Economic Reforms, Fiscal Accountability Key
--------------


10. (C) Ahmed suggested that the federal and state
governments need to harmonize their spending and improve
fiscal management at all levels of government. States, which
receive 50 percent of national revenues, have no long or
medium term plan for spending. Ahmed said the Nigeria
Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) has had
some successes, but that much more must be done in order to
bring greater transparency to oil revenue spending. State
and local governments now publish their budgets but there is
no pressure to determine whether the funds are spent wisely.



11. (C) NGOs at the national level, particularly the
National Democratic Institute (NDI)-supported Civil Society
Legislative Advocacy Center (CISLAC),have had a measure of
success in demanding accountability from the National

LAGOS 00000663 003 OF 003


Assembly. CISLAC has the capacity to follow Federal
spending. The media also plays a crucial role in
accountability, as evidenced by the current controversy over
the Assembly Speaker's expensive renovation of her official
residence. State assemblies should be the major actors
demanding accountability at the state level but they are
weak, Ahmed lamented. To help Nigeria achieve a sustained
focus on demanding accountability, donors should provide
interaction and support. In addition, he said, lack of
progress in the World Trade Organization's Doha Round
negotiations has given Nigerians the impression that the
developed world prefers to give aid rather than to give
developing countries the opportunity to grow through
participation in the world trading system.


12. (C) Olanipekun criticized National Assembly members for
failing to employ aides to assist in analysis of bills and
other work; the national Assembly provides funds to hire
assistants, but in some cases the legislators merely collect
the money and do not hire individuals with the ability to
assist them. The National Assembly should be as strong as
the executive branch, he said, but it remains weak, as
evidenced by the fact that nine out of every ten bills
originated with executive branch. Olanipekun suggested the
United States should provide training and assistance to
elected members of the assembly.


13. (C) Comment: Both interlocutors were clearly interested
in what Yar'Adua could do to win high-level recognition for
his Presidency from the U.S. Government. Throughout the
conversation, they seemed to take careful note of the
questions asked, and asked occasionally whether Craig or
Poloffs had any thoughts about one or another of the moves
Yar'Adua had made. End Comment.


14. (U) Theodore Craig did not clear this cable before
departing post.
HUTCHINSON