GOVERNOR OBI'S SUMMER OF OPTIMISM IN ANAMBRA STATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LAGOS 000575

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: GOVERNOR OBI'S SUMMER OF OPTIMISM IN ANAMBRA STATE

REF: LAGOS 457

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Classified By: Acting Consul General Donald McConnell for reasons 1.4 (
B) and (D)


1. (C) Summary: In a July 30 visit by Pol-econ chief to
Anambra State, Governor Peter Obi optimistically believed
with the court cases finally resolved in his favor, now was
the time for Anambra State to be the "Light of the Nation".
Political observers agree that Obi has an opening to
transform the state, but speculated whether the dominant
People's Democratic Party (PDP) would give Obi an unhindered
hand in Anambra. The election tribunals in Anambra will
likely go into the next year, with a decision hinging on
whether the tribunal will accept the petitioners' contention
there was no election in the state last April. End summary.

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Visit to Governor Peter Obi
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2. (U) Pol-econ chief visited Governor Obi in the Anambra
State capital Awka on July 30. In Poloff's previous meeting
with Obi in March, Obi appeared distracted, but had
persevered in hope the Supreme Court would accept his
interpretation of the constitution and grant him a four-year
tenure till 2010. After Obi's victory, in a July meeting a
now ebullient Obi expressed optimism that a bright future lay
ahead. Obi told pol-econ chief his government had developed
the Anambra State Integrated Development Strategy (ANDIS),
and at the meeting Obi's aide distributed glossy flyers
titled "Breaking the Jinx", highlighting his achievements
since assuming the governorship in March 2006. Obi's staff
also invited the press to attend a short briefing, and
afterward press stories largely touted the visit as another
confirmation of support for the Governor.


3. (U) The same commissioners in Obi's cabinet before the
election had returned, as the commissioners of education,
information, and health attended the meeting. Obi referred
to people as "Anambra's greatest resource", and averred his
first priority was to change the people's mindset. He
thought the ANDIS plan, with its emphasis on planning,
budgeting, and resource allocation, would lead to greater
transparency. Perhaps realizing his unique position as the
only Governor to realize his mandate through the courts, Obi
had recently changed the sobriquet of Anambra from "Home for
All" to "Light of the Nation".


4. (C) Obi considered working with the recently-inaugurated
PDP legislature a challenge, obliquely referring to "their
different mindsets". Despite his standing as the only
Governor from the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA),Obi
did not see himself as having particular responsibilities to
the party, though he told Pol-econ chief he believed in a
multi-party system. Looking to the future, Obi foresaw freer
and fairer elections, given the caveat that the election
tribunals and the courts continued to follow the rule of law.


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Visit to Anambra Legislators Finds Them in Intrigue
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5. (C) In a meeting convened at State Assembly Speaker Anayo
Anebe's office, Anambra legislators told Pol-econ chief while
they would work with the Governor, they had prepared six
bills themselves and were intent on passing them. The
six-point agenda included, curiously enough, a provision
providing for the hiring of private citizens to organize a
security committee in order to "supplement" law enforcement.
When pol-econ chief asked if this was to create a separate
security force, the dissembling legislators flatly denied it.

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Anambra Reaches an Era of Uncertainty
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6. (C) In a meeting with media political observers,
correspondent for the Punch John Ameh opined that for now
there was "momentary stability". People were genuinely taken
aback when the Supreme Court ordered PDP Governor Andy Uba to
vacate the Awka house, Ameh remarked, remarking that many
Anambrans felt if Obasanjo had remained President, Uba would
have been encouraged to stay. The court decision was
accepted by the church, the Nigerian Bar Association, and
civil society, but the PDP was still looking at the
possibility of reviewing the Obi decision, Ameh claimed.
Recent articles criticizing the Obi decision had appeared in
newspapers, arguing the case should have gone to the
electoral tribunal and the Supreme Court wrongly intervened.
Though Ameh doubted the authority to challenge the Supreme
Court, he also noted "people here believe in fighting to the
finish and do not give up easily".


7. (C) Anayo Okoni, correspondent for the Daily Independent,
said when Obi met with President Umaru Yar'Adua after the
decision the President informed Obi as long as the rule of
law was followed there would be no interference in Anambra.
Okoni reflected that despite its friction with the Governor,
the legislature was not considering impeaching Obi again.
After the court decision, traditional rulers brought Obi and
the newly-inaugurated legislators to try to avoid future
problems. A more gloomy Ameh disagreed, noting the Anambra
legislators were all "Uba's people" and had kept impeachment
as an option.


8. (C) An optimistic Rex Eze of Radio Nigeria contended
Anambrans were weary of the constant crises that had
destabilized the state, and were willing to see what Obi
could do. The legislators have their own problems, Eze
postulated, since they all have cases in front of the
tribunal contesting the April elections which "everyone knew
were not credible". Eze predicted there would be an
agreement to allow a few seats to change in the electoral
tribunal, which would improve Obi's position and help the
Governor when he sought a second term. Politically, Eze
analyzed the Action Congress and the All Nigeria People's
Party on the sidelines in the state, with APGA strengthening,
and the dominant PDP with plenty of loyalists but bereft of
ideas. So far, Obi has been reluctant to lead or support
APGA so for now the PDP remained the most powerful party.
Obi's ANIDS plan would gain momentum, Eze predicted, as
legislators would give their support to show their
constituents what they had accomplished.

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Onitsha's Chaos and MASSOB Taxes
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9. (C) Ameh evaluated the Onitsha violence a result of not
only politicians' meddling, but also idle youth working for
the highest bidder in a city which he termed a combustible
combination of various political and economic interests at
the heart of the Southeast. Ameh considered the efforts of
the Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of
Biafra (MASSOB) as peaceful but alleged MASSOB had been
infiltrated by more violent elements. Nwanozike One of The
Nation disagreed, saying MASSOB leaders were not behind the
attempts to extort money but miscreants posing as MASSOB
agents.

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Lawyer Discusses the Anambra Tribunals
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10. (C) Obele Chuka, a lawyer, human rights activist, and
election observer for the Alliance of Credible Elections
(ACE),gave Poloff his candid analysis of the Anambra
election tribunals. Chuka represented several aggrieved

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petitioners, and told Poloff he had just arrived from the
Anambra State Assembly, where he had chastised the
legislators as impostors since none of them had won their
election legitimately. As an election monitor, neither Chuka
nor his fellow observers saw an election in Anambra state,
and he considered all the results invalid. Uba, cognizant of
the lesson of 2003 where Obi amassed evidence to prove he had
won the election, was desperate not to permit evidence of an
unfavorable result. In Anambra, the petitioners were trying
to prove there was no election, so Chuka was collecting oaths
posted by observers and voters willing to testify there was
no vote held. The Independent National Election Commission
(INEC) had to prove there was an election by providing a list
of ad hoc staff and ballot papers, Chuka said, but this was
so far proving difficult, as the Anambra INEC commissioner
had absconded and still could not be reached.


11. (C) Despite the fact there was no election, the results
in the tribunal would depend on each individual case, as some
candidates did not have the finances to afford a petition,
while others had been compromised by cash or a position to
withdraw their petition, Chuka lamented. To ensure its
victory, the PDP was spending massive amounts of federal and
state money at the tribunals, alleged Chuka.


12. (C) Chuka charged that ever since Obi had won his mandate
at the courts he had been disinterested in the election
tribunals, and had declined to assist members of his own
party. Chuka claimed Obi was actually trying to assist the
previous state assembly, the one which impeached him, to
extend their tenure. Obi found current state assembly filled
with strong personalities and considered the old assembly
pliable, mused Chuka. Chuka also told Poloff a rumor the
State Assembly would impeach Obi at a propitious time. While
Anambrans still supported Obi, it was not so much support for
Obi as relief the Uba family had to relinquish power. In
fact, people often preferred former Governor Chris Ngige to
Obi, remarked Chuka.


13. (C) Despite the difficulties, Chuka thought the election
tribunal would overturn many of the decisions, though he
estimated the process would prolong itself to January. To
forestall action by the State Assembly, Chuka had filed a
suit barring the body from passing legislation before the
tribunals had made a decision. Assuming an overturn by the
tribunal, Chuka argued new elections would be freer because
of four reasons; one, Obasanjo was out of power; two, Uba was
also gone, and would not spend resources for his candidates;
three, the security services would interfere less since Uba
was gone; and four, people would mobilize.

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Comment
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14. (C) Obi's court victory was popular in Anambra state, but
the populace waits to see what Obi will do with his mandate.
Obi appears to be in the strongest position politically since
he assumed the governorship in 2006, although past history
has shown popularity to be fleeting and often unimportant in
Anambran politics. While Obi enjoys popular support, Anambra
will be a study in whether the plans of a political newcomer
like Obi can match the realities of hardball politics. Obi's
success will likely be contingent on his ability to forge a
successful coalition in the legislature, civil service, and
security forces to implement his ambitious plans.

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Biographical Notes on Governor Peter Obi
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15. (C) Governor Peter Obi was born in July 1961 and is 46
years old. Obi was the former Chairman of Fidelity Bank, in
which the Obi family still has financial interest. Contacts
have reported that Obi has few close advisors and largely

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chooses to keep his own counsel. Obi won the 2003 vote but
INEC declared Ngige the winner based on the machinations of
Chris Uba, who later testified he had rigged the vote to
persuade the courts to overturn Ngige's election. Obi became
Governor in March 2006 and attempted to cultivate Obasanjo's
support, but Obi had poor relations with the legislature and
overall his tenure was disappointing. Obi's relations with
the APGA party were also poor, as Obi was reportedly
reluctant to support the party using largesse from state
funds, a common practice for some other state governors. Obi
was impeached in October 2006 on trumped up charges of
corruption, but in February 2007, the High Court reinstated
Obi as Governor.
MCCONNELL