LAGOS INCREDULOUS OVER CENSUS RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000030

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W (SILSKI)
STATE FOR INR/AA
USDOC FOR BUREAU OF THE CENSUS: OFFICE OF AFRICA - NIGERIA
DESK
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAOLO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM SOCI ECON EAID NI CENSUS
SUBJECT: LAGOS INCREDULOUS OVER CENSUS RESULTS

REF: A. ABUJA 44 B. 05 LAGOS 435 C. 05 LAGOS 1293

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Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (SBU) Summary: For a moment shunting aside the partisan
bickering of the election season, Lagosians of all stripes
and religious persuasions collectively uttered a hue and cry
at the recent national census results. They reject the
notion that Kano State is more populous than Lagos. Feeling
is widespread that the census was a political device to
assuage Northern anxiety about atrophy of its political
muscle. Most Lagosians estimated their population to be
16-18 million, thus being pegged at 9 million is quite a low
blow. Although denigrating the census results, many people
are using them to argue that the near parity in population
between Lagos and Kano is not reflected in the apportionment
of National Assembly seats and local government councils.
Lagos has significantly less of both. Now there is a cry to
address this imbalance. Unlikely is that prospect prior to
the election. End summary.

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Census Runs Counter to Common Sense,
Demographic Trends
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2. (U) Ayo Obe, a human rights attorney, described the
census results as a political artifice disguised as an
exercise in demographics. In a conversation with the Consul
General, Obe ridiculed the idea that the North should have
three of Nigeria's four most populous states. She was
particularly bemused that Katsina would be seen as heavily
populated, quipping that, "Apparently Nigerians are migrating
to the edge of the Sahara". A leading figure in the Lagos
muslim community characterized the result as a travesty to
mathematics.

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Technical Flaws Allow Overcounting in the North
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3. (SBU) Ngozi Nkwo, a southerner who was a counter in the
1991 census, told Poloff flaws in counting techniques skewed
the results from the North. Nkwo commented that in the
North, male census takers were not allowed into homes to
count females. Since there were only a few female counters,
census takers had no choice but to accept the number of
females given by the head of household. (Note: This is a
rationale widely accepted in the South to explain the North's
advantage. End note)


4. (U) Nevertheless, Some southerners defended the census as
a rough head count, which though flawed was still useful.
Political Science Professor Adeolu Durotoye of the University
of Ibadan called the results "very close to reality" and
better than the 1991 effort.

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Lagos State Government Preparing a Response...
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5. (C) Chief Press Secretary for the Lagos State Governor
Kehinde Bamgbetan (protect) told us that Lagos had not issued
an official statement on the census because the governor's
office was still preparing its response. Anticipating this
outcome to the federal exercise, Lagos State had also
conducted its own census, Bamgbetan noted. The State hired
its own counters and Governor Bola Tinubu personally directed
the effort, which took place at the same time as the official
census. When the National Census declared an end to its
exercise, Lagos State requested uncounted residents to remain
indoors for an additional two days.


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6. (C) Bamgbetan confided to Polspec that the State census
recorded a population of 21 million. Because of the vast
discrepancy between the State and Federal Government (FG)
census results (over 11 million) the Governor's office is
preparing a comprehensive and detailed response to the
national census results. (The Lagos State figure is
significantly higher than the Lagos population estimate of 12
to 15 million given by the UN and NGOs.) Bamgbetan said
Lagos was considering several options, which includes either
challenging the Federal census numbers in court or addressing
the issue to the National Assembly.

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...As Politicians Are Already in the Fray
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7. (U) While acknowledging that census numbers are biased
against Lagos, National Assembly Senators Olorunnimbe Mamora
of Lagos and Victor Oyofo of Edo called for a constitutional
amendment to adjust local, state, and national representation
to reflect the census. Mamora, noting that currently Lagos
has 26 national representatives to Kano's 34, called for a
proportional readjustment to reflect Lagos's near parity with
Kano. Mamora also called for an increase in Lagos's current
number of 20 local government councils.


8. (SBU) Professor Adeolu Durotoye of the University of
Ibadan was doubtful of the success of any legislative effort
to amend the constitution, calling the effort politically
explosive. Citing prior disputes between the FG and Lagos
State regarding the number of local government councils to
which Lagos was entitled (refs B and C),Durotoye did not see
a People's Democratic Party-controlled National Assembly
adjusting Lagos's representation, a move which would benefit
Lagos Governor Tinubu and his party, the Action Congress
(AC). Furthermore, Durotoye saw little chance a court would
accept as evidence the unauthorized count conducted by the
Lagos government. Durotoye noted the political reality is
that the census results protect and justify northern control
of the country as well as a significant distribution of
Nigeria's wealth from the more productive South to the
economically stagnant North. (Note: A report released
January 9 by the Stakeholders Economic Forum listed ten
Northern States as Nigeria's poorest states. End note)


9. (SBU) Comment: The census results confirmed the belief by
many Lagosians that the count was unfairly tipped against
them, despite demographic trends that have swelled the State
and city's numbers and burdened housing, transportation,
water, and other services. The results giving a majority of
the population to the North seem to Lagosians to reflect a
political rather than a demographic reality. Given that one
of President Obasanjo's mordant critics is Governor Tinubu
and that Lagos State is currently controlled by a rival party
to the PDP, the odds that the federal government would do
something to salve the State's bruised feelings are less than
the chances of finding an average Lagosian who would agree
with the census figure. End comment.

BROWNE