Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07LAGOS262
2007-04-13 11:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Lagos
Cable title:  

AD CALLS FOR ELECTION POSTPONEMENT; QUESTIONS

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM NI ELECTIONS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4085
RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHOS #0262/01 1031142
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 131142Z APR 07
FM AMCONSUL LAGOS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8748
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 8574
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 0275
RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ 0255
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 0254
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000262 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA
WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAOLO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: AD CALLS FOR ELECTION POSTPONEMENT; QUESTIONS
INEC'S AGENDA

REF: 06 LAGOS 1350

LAGOS 00000262 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (b and d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000262

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA
WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAOLO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: AD CALLS FOR ELECTION POSTPONEMENT; QUESTIONS
INEC'S AGENDA

REF: 06 LAGOS 1350

LAGOS 00000262 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: In a March 31 meeting with Consul General,
Chief Reuben Fasoranti, chairman of the pre-eminent Yoruba
social Qganization Afenifere, said there have been no
election preparations in Ondo State, and he proposed that the
Independent National Election Commission's (INEC) failure
could be an attempt to prolong President Obasanjo's term.
Fasoranti, also a leader in the Democratic People's Alliance
(DPA),believes election-related violence could escalate to
the point of national emergency, giving President Obasanjo
justification. End summary.

AD Finds Replacement Candidate
--------------


2. (C) Following the death of Alliance for Democracy (AD)
presidential candidate Adebayo Adefarati on March 29, Chief
Fasoranti told Consul General that the AD was in the throes
of finding a replacement candidate. (Note: Although
Fasoranti is a member of the DPA, the links between the DPA
and AD are close and cordial. Many in the DPA were once in
the AD, and the fission was amicable. Moreover, Fasoranti was
a close personal friend of the late Adefarati, and both men
are from Ondo State. The AD later picked Pere Ajuwa as
Adefarati,s replacement and demanded elections be shifted by
two weeks. However, a Federal High Court in Abuja on April
10 held that INEC has no authority to shift the elections.
In any event, the AD has very little hope of capturing the
presidency. End note)

AD Suspects Hidden Agenda Behind Election Prep
-------------- -


3. (C) Fasoranti told Consul General that no election
preparations were evident in Ondo State, including hiring of
local poll workers, and that INEC would not be ready for the
April 14 election. Nonetheless, the AD is continuing to
campaign in hopes elections occur. Fasoranti suggested a
hidden agenda was behind INEC,s failure to prepare. He
believed INEC's languor was intended to facilitate President
Obasanjo's tenure extension. As a result of a sloppy
exercise, violence could escalate to the point of a national
emergency, he added, at which point Obasanjo would have
justification to remain in power.


4. (C) Fasoranti also expressed his disapproval of the
National Assembly decision to recess until early May, and
questioned whether or not it would be called back into
session in the event of a national emergency. He speculated
that, without a National Assembly in session, President
Obasanjo could suspend the constitution and have an excuse to
install the military and remain in power for an indefinite
period until stability had been restored.


5. (C) According to Fasoranti, up to 40 million people may be
disenfranchised, although fully two-thirds of that number may
actually be on the voter roll. He reasoned the recessed
National Assembly has yet to amend the Electoral Act to
extend the period of voter registration. Fasoranti explained
the law needed to extend the date for registration to
validate the large number of voters who registered subsequent
to the termination date currently stated in the law. There
is also a question of where voters who registered outside
their districts will be able to vote due to restricted
movement on election day.

Agbaje and Buhari Have Ondo AD Backing
--------------


6. (C) According to Fasoranti, the DPA Lagos gubernatorial
candidate Jimmy Agbaje has a strong chance of winning.
Agbaje has been able to exploit the split that occurred when
current Governor Bola Tinubu left the AD for the Action
Congress (AC). Fasoranti added that the PDP is "desperate to
get Lagos," and it may resort to all manner of chicanery and

LAGOS 00000262 002.2 OF 002


worse to steer the election toward the PDP.


7. (C) Fasoranti said the DPA is supporting All Nigeria
People,s Party (ANPP) presidential candidate Muhammadu
Buhari. With the DPA's backing, Buhari now has more support
in the South West geo-political zone than in the past.
Furthermore, AC presidential candidate Atiku will be unable
to contest the elections, no matter how many times he goes to
court and wins his cases, and the ANPP will likely gain
Atiku,s supporters.
BROWNE