UKRAINE: YANUKOVYCH AND YUSHCHENKO AGREE EU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000853

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/UMB
MUMBAI FOR KLEIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2017
TAGS: PREL ECIN ETRD ENRG EUN UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: YANUKOVYCH AND YUSHCHENKO AGREE EU
MEMBERSHIP REMAINS THE GOAL

REF: KYIV 646

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Classified By: DCM Sheila Gwaltney for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) Summary: During his March 27 visit to Brussels, PM
Yanukovych said he wanted Ukraine to adopt a long-term
strategy for EU membership and thanked his interlocutors for
their help so far. Echoing President Yushchenko's earlier
comments, Yanukovych urged the incorporation of a reference
to Ukraine's eligibility for membership in the EU-Ukraine
"New Enhanced Agreement." EU European Commission Delegation
acting head Dirk Schuebel suggested to us April 5 the EU
might be slowly warming to the idea of Ukraine's eventual EU
entry, adding that the latest round of negotiations for the
EU-Ukraine agreement went smoothly, with working groups
established to facilitate detailed negotiations in specific
areas. Although the working group on economy and trade would
not start its work until the WTO Working Party had issued a
positive report on Ukraine's WTO accession, discussion within
the other three working groups was proceeding well. In the
working group on foreign and security policy, the EU had
pressed Ukraine to ratify the Rome Statute of the
International Criminal Court and to adopt a position on
Kosovo more consistent with the EU's. Negotiations on a visa
facilitation agreement could be "tricky." Schuebel said he
expected negotiations overall to last at least a year.


2. (C) Comment: In contrast to partisan disagreement over the
timing and tactics to pursue Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic
aspirations and eventual NATO membership and low public
support, the last several months have seen repeated
statements by both PM Yanukovych's camp and President
Yushchenko's team emphasizing that Ukraine's EU aspirations
are backed by consensus in Ukraine's ruling elite as well as
by popular support. This marks a shift from the 2004
election cycle, in which Yanukovych's team consciously
highlighted Ukraine's ties with Russia and the future of the
Single Economic Space (SES) project rather than an EU-centric
future. Pushing "Europe" as a values-based concept as
embodied in the Copenhagen criteria -- rather than a narrow
definition focused around the EU as an institution -- can
thus be an effective rhetorical tool in encouraging Ukraine
to continue to move in the right direction on political,
economic, judicial, and social reforms, despite ongoing sharp
partisan politics. End Summary.

Yanukovych Pushes EU Membership in Brussels
--------------


3. (SBU) EU European Commission Delegation in Kyiv's acting
head Dirk Schuebel told us April 5 that PM Yanukovych "made
no mistakes" during his March 27 one-day visit to Brussels;
Schuebel was also encouraged that FM Yatsenyuk, a Yushchenko
appointee, accompanied Yanukovych to most meetings.
Yanukovych told his Brussels interlocutors that he favored a
long-term strategy for Ukraine's EU membership and was
grateful for the EU's help. Both Yanukovych and Yushchenko
(speaking during a mid-March visit to Copenhagen) stated
Ukraine would focus on meeting the EU's membership criteria
over the next decade, while sidestepping for the time being
any direct discussion of possible eventual Ukrainian
membership. While in Brussels Yanukovych met with European
Commission Chairman Jose Barroso, EU High Representative for
Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana, European
Parliament President Hans-Gert Pottering, and EU Commissioner
for External Relations Benita Ferrero-Waldner. He also
signed an amendment to the agreement on textiles and an
extension of the current Partnership and Cooperation
Agreement that added Bulgaria and Romania.


4. (SBU) Schuebel remarked that Yushchenko and Yanukovych
could barely be distinguished when they spoke about Ukraine's
integration with the EU (reftel),a further sign of apparent
genuine consensus on the issue. Yanukovych understood that
Ukraine would not be able to join the EU for many more years,
but he pushed for some mention of the prospect of eventual
membership in the EU-Ukraine "New Enhanced Agreement."
During the visit, Yanukovych for the first time voiced his
support for an extension of the EU Border Assistance Mission
(EU BAM) on the Ukraine-Moldova border. Yanukovych also said
that he was still optimistic about the prospect of Ukraine
joining the WTO by summer.


5. (C) Schuebel said newly appointed FM Yatsenyuk made a
positive impression in Brussels, where he is well known from
his time as Minister of Economy in the Yekhanurov cabinet
(2005-06). While in Brussels, Yatsenyuk said Ukraine had one

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foreign policy, which Schuebel interpreted as part of
Yatsenyuk's efforts to work with Yushchenko and Yanukovych
and find common ground for Ukraine's external relations.
Schuebel opined that Yatsenyuk's good intentions had been
somewhat overtaken by recent events, since he was forced to
take sides in the current crisis, supporting Yushchenko on
parliamentary dissolution; Schuebel suspected Yatsenyuk may
not remain in office long.

"New Enhanced Agreement" Negotiations Proceeding Smoothly
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Schuebel expressed satisfaction with the progress made
during the last round of negotiations on the EU-Ukraine "New
Enhanced Agreement" held April 2-3 in Kyiv. He said Ukraine
was not insisting on wording that mentioned Ukraine's EU
membership prospects, but that the Ukrainian side called for
inclusion of a reference to Article 49 of the Treaty on the
European Union that says that any European country that
respects European values is entitled to apply for membership.
While the EU logically should not object to a reference to
its own basic document, Schuebel said EU negotiators objected
even to this oblique reference, since there was a general
feeling that the EU "went too far, too fast with Turkey."


7. (C) Schuebel said four working groups were established:
foreign and security policy; justice and home affairs;
sectoral cooperation; and economy and trade. Schuebel said
the economy and trade working group would not start its
negotiations until the WTO Working Party had issued a
positive recommendation on Ukraine's WTO accession, since its
main subject would be negotiations on a free trade area.
(Comment: This is a small concession by the EU on timing, as
previously the EU had insisted the talks could not start
until Ukraine had completed its WTO accession. The
difference between the approval of the Working Party report
and final accession, however, is likely to be only a few
months.) Schuebel said he expected negotiations would take
at least a year. Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy
Veselovskiy expected to remain chief negotiator for the
EU-Ukraine talks, but could move on after agreements were
reached on the main issues, allowing someone else to receive
credit for concluding the agreement. The next round of
negotiations would be held May 23-24 in Brussels, prior to
moving back to Kyiv in early July.


8. (C) Schuebel said he took part in the foreign and security
policy working group meetings and did not foresee particular
difficulties; he noted that Ukraine was already in agreement
with 92% of EU foreign policy positions. Schuebel mentioned
the EU wanted Ukraine to ratify the Rome Statute of the
International Criminal Court and adopt a position on Kosovo
more in keeping with the EU's. Schuebel noted Ukraine's
aversion to support independence for Kosovo was motivated by
a reluctance to set a precedent that would adversely affect
Crimea and the "frozen conflicts" in Georgia. He also said
that Ukraine had not agreed to restrict travel or freeze
assets of high ranking Belarusian officials as the EU would
like.


9. (C) Reaching agreement in the working group on justice and
home affairs could prove to be "more tricky," noted
Schuebel. The Ukrainians had complained about the visa
policy of several EU member states (note: which recently
introduced high contractor fees for processing visa
applications. end note). Ukrainian negotiator had also,
Schuebel thought perhaps tongue-in-cheek, requested that
Ukraine be allowed to enter the Schengen zone. Schuebel was
optimistic that compromises were possible.


10. (C) Schuebel expressed the opinion that acceptance of the
idea that Ukraine might someday join the EU was gradually
growing. He noted that Ukraine's biggest promoters were in
the EU Parliament, particularly the EU - Ukraine
Parliamentary Cooperation Committee, which contained many
members from Eastern European states. Schuebel compared the
current skepticism over Ukraine to the situation Poland faced
in 1994; he saw a similar slow change in attitude toward
Ukraine. Schuebel noted with some amusement that several
Ukrainian politicians were unaware that Romania and Bulgaria
had been on schedule to join the EU at the beginning of 2007;
he admitted it was not entirely easy answering their
question: "What do they have that we do not?"


11. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor