UKRAINE: DAS KRAMER DISCUSSES NATO/SECURITY ISSUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000663

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: DAS KRAMER DISCUSSES NATO/SECURITY ISSUES
IN UKRAINE

REF: 06 KYIV 3570

Classified By: Ambassador, reason 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: EUR DAS David Kramer and NSC Director Adam
Sterling discussed Ukraine-NATO relations and security issues
with a range of Ukrainian officials March 18-20, in addition
to energy, domestic politics, Belarus, and Transnistria
(septels). Presidential adviser Oleh Rybachuk described his
plans to expand an informal NATO information campaign sending
cultural rather than political figures to the provinces,
rather than holding policy-focused roundtables of experts in
Kyiv. Rybachuk and PM adviser Kostantin Gryshchenko agreed
that Russia liked Ukraine weak and divided, unable to move
forward on NATO. Defense Minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko
stressed that NATO membership and energy security were the
two requirements to safeguard Ukrainian sovereignty.
Hrytsenko and PM adviser Andriy Fialko claimed Yanukovych was
delivering on practical cooperation with NATO, while former
FM Borys Tarasyuk and Tymoshenko bloc (BYuT) MP Hrihoriy
Nemyria countered that Yanukovych and the Cabinet had not
delivered on the information campaign promises made in the
PM's September 14 speech at NATO. DAS Kramer stressed to all
officials the importance of Ukraine naming a foreign minister
within the week if there were to be any chance of a
NATO-Ukraine Council (NUC) Ministerial in Oslo in April
(note: Arseniy Yatsenyuk was approved as FM March 21).

Carrying the info campaign forward informally
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2. (SBU) Presidential adviser Rybachuk described the current
state of NATO information campaign efforts. Despite what
Yanukovych had said in Brussels in September and Washington
in November, the PM and the Regions-led government were not
prepared to talk about NATO domestically. Except for a few
advisers and MPs able to engage westerners, most Regions were
locked in Soviet mentalities. Close Yanukovych associate
Eduard Prutnik, Head of the State Radio and TV Committee,
seemed to be willing to be cooperative, even if few resources
were being made available. It was essential to have some
participation by the Regions' team.


3. (SBU) Rybachuk felt that civil society, rather than the
political elite, gave reason for optimism. He was focused on
conducting an informal information effort on Ukraine's
European and Euro-Atlantic choice, launched with a March 2
conference in Kyiv, using more cultural and intellectual than
political figures, and focused on efforts outside Kyiv. He
had solicited leading businessmen, including the country's
two richest billionaires, Regions' financier Rinat Akhmetov
and Kuchma son-in-law Viktor Pinchuk, for support. Even
though they were more enthusiastic about EU-related efforts
than NATO, they agreed to consider providing financial
support for a budget for efforts in 2008. In the meantime,
Rybachuk was building a network of proven NGOs and figures
who could be credible in electronic media, not politicians,
but activists and cultural figures like Slava Vakarchuk, the
country's leading rock star, Ruslana, 2004 Eurovision winner
and now an OU MP, folk rock legend Oleh Skrypka, who lived in
Paris for seven years, and the boxing brothers Klitchko, who
spent a decade in Germany, all of whom would be more
effective than politicians in promoting western values.

The Russia factor: liking Ukraine weak and divided
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4. (C) Rybachuk stressed that Russia was comfortable with a
weak and divided Ukraine, since that would keep the issue of
NATO membership off the table. Once public support for
membership started increasing, Russia would react even more
vigorously than it was now. PM adviser Gryshchenko
underscored Rybachuk's assessment that Yanukovych was not
doing Moscow's bidding, leading Russia to seek other
political figures to front for their interests (see septel on
energy issues and controversial Energy Minister Boiko).
Rybachuk suggested the Russians used marginal political
forces like the Communists and Progressive Socialist Natalya
Vitrenko to represent Moscow's interests and to stir up
trouble in Crimea. The Russian Black Sea Fleet played an
important role as well, coordinating anti-NATO actions and
fomenting anti-Tatar sentiments.

Hrytsenko's views: domestic reforms, external support
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5. (SBU) Defense Minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko said that energy
security and NATO membership were the two keys to defending
Ukrainian sovereignty. Preparing for NATO membership was 90%
about internal reforms, achieving western values,
transparency, and standards that could provide security for

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society and ordinary citizens, not just the state.


6. (C) Hrytsenko said that the U.S. could assist the
information campaign effort by supporting easy to understand
success stories. Addressing melange (rocket fuel) disposal
could make up to a million Ukrainians live more safely;
military-industrial cooperation could provide jobs; the
experience of new NATO members had more relevance in shaping
perceptions in the NATO-skeptical east and south. Most
importantly, however, would be a presidential visit to
Ukraine, at least in 2008, with Secretaries of State and
Defense before. Hrytsenko hoped that SecDef Gates could
commit to attend the 2007 Southeastern Europe Defense
Ministerial (SEDM) to be held in Kyiv sometime in
October-December. Hrytsenko asked for dates that might work
for SecDef Gates.

Is Yanukovych Helping or Hindering NATO aspirations?
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Despite the lagging information campaign effort,
Hrytsenko claimed Yanukovych's CabMin had acted quickly on
decisions affecting Ukrainian participation in NATO-related
operations, from Operation Active Endeavor to the Kosovo
mission and Ukrainian participation in the Afghanistan-ISAF
force as part of a Lithuanian PRT, an assessment shared by PM
adviser Andriy Fialko.


8. (SBU) Such optimism was countered at a dinner attended by
Fialko as well as former FM Tarasyuk and BYuT foreign policy
adviser Nemyria. Tarasyuk noted that Yanukovych had
abolished the governmental coordinating committee on European
and Euro-Atlantic Integration soon after returning to power.
Yanukovych also had stripped information campaign budgets
from two pro-NATO bodies, the MFA and Horbulin's Center for
Euro-Atlantic Integration, and given it to the Ministry of
Education, run by a Socialist skeptic on NATO and overseen by
DPM Tabachnyk, a vocal NATO opponent. Yanukovych was just
like Kuchma, claimed Tarasyuk. Kuchma had made pro-NATO
declarations, but pursued an alternate reality. Nemyria
recalled his late February appearance with DPM Tabachnyk on a
"Freedom of Speech" talk show focused on US foreign policy
and missile defense. According to Nemyria, only he and OU's
Petro Poroshenko had defended the U.S. and NATO against
fierce criticism from Tabachnyk, the Socialists, and
Communists. In his view, DPM Azarov also was a confirmed
NATO-hater.


9. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor