UKRAINE: BOHATYREVA APPOINTMENT MUDDIES REGIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 003154

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: BOHATYREVA APPOINTMENT MUDDIES REGIONS
ROLE IN OPPOSITION

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Robert Scott for reasons 1.4(
b,d).


1. (C) Summary. With Regions finally settling into its role
as the opposition, and both Prime Minister Tymoshenko and
Regions leader Yanukovych making efforts to be constructive,
President Yushchenko's decision to name deputy leader of
Party of Regions Raisa Bohatyreva Secretary of the National
Security and Defense Council (NSDC) has unsettled all sides
once again. Many in Regions vocally opposed Bohatyreva
taking the job, although they have not yet expelled her from
the party. The move also elicited sharp reactions from some
in BYuT and the President's own OU-PSD. Meanwhile,
Tymoshenko and Regions leader Yanukovych met December 25 to
discuss ways to enhance the opposition's oversight powers --
including cooperation on the law on the opposition. Regions
also finally unblocked the committee formation process,
allowing 401 MPs to approve the assignments, and is moving
forward with its shadow Cabinet designed to give Regions an
outlet to criticize the Tymoshenko government and propose
alternative policies.


2. (C) Comment. There appear to be several reasons why
Yushchenko brought Bohatyreva to the NSDC, but they primarily
center on keeping both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych off balance.
Bohatyreva may be there, in part, as a counterbalance to
Tymoshenko, someone who will use her political position to
try to constrain the PM; a role most people also see Defense
Minister Yekhanurov filling. It also seems likely that
Bohatyreva would not have been offered or accepted such a
position, unless there were some sort of agreement with the
leaders of her wing of Regions, Rinat Akhmetov and Borys
Kolesnikov. Bringing someone from Regions into the
government constrains the more radical wing of Regions to
some degree from being in strident opposition -- this is
probably one reason Yanukovych and others have so harshly
criticized her decision to take the job. If Akhmetov and the
President's team are still hoping for a broad coalition down
the road, this could be a first step. Bohatyreva also seems
to have served the purpose, perhaps accidentally, of setting
off another round of speculation in the press that there is a
growing split in Regions, although all sides have denied it.
Bohatyreva, as a member of Regions, also gives Yushchenko
some credibility to say that he is reaching out to Eastern
Ukraine by bringing its representatives into the government.
Ironically, if Bohatyreva is forced to leave Regions in the
end -- although for the moment she appears safe -- she will
lose most of her value for Yushchenko and could be cut loose.
If she stays in Regions and at the NSDC, it would be a
testament to Akhmetov's relative strength within the party
and his ability to shield her from the Yanukovych wing.
Whether this new relationship between part of Regions and the
President further encourages Regions to be a moderate,
constructive opposition or walks back some of the progress
Yanukovych and Tymoshenko made this week remains to be seen.
End summary and comment.

Bohatyreva's Surprise Appointment
--------------


3. (SBU) President Yushchenko unexpectedly announced December
24 that he had signed a decree naming Regions deputy faction
head Raisa Bohatyreva NSDC Secretary. For the following two
days, Regions members criticized the move and others
discussed it, but it was not clear if Bohatyreva had
accepted. Finally, Yushchenko formally introduced her at the
December 26 Cabinet of Ministers meeting.


4. (SBU) Views within Regions about the appointment are
mixed, although all deny that this is a sign of a growing
split within the party. Regions MP Chechetov said that the
party does not approve, but it was a personal decision for
Bohatyreva, and he said they wished her luck with her new
job. Yanukovych told the press December 25 that the Regions'
political council had instructed Bohatyreva to decline the
appointment. He also claimed the appointment was made
without Bohatyreva's consent. Regions MPs Khara and
Tolstukhov said she should leave the party. In contrast,
Regions deputy faction head Hanna Herman said it was an
attempt by the President to reach out to Eastern Ukraine.
She also said that Regions knew about the appointment before
it was announced. On December 26, deputy faction head Serhiy
Lyovochkin announced that the party's political council had
met and decided that Regions will not sanction Bohatyreva.
He said that they had expressed their views, but would not do
anything further. On December 26 Bohatyreva told the press
that she met twice with Yushchenko before he made the
appointment. She added that she is confident that she will
not be expelled from the party, although she has not seen
Yanukovych since accepting the job.

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5. (C) Interestingly, the newspaper Sevodnya, which belongs
to Akhmetov, cited a source saying that Yanukovych was very
angry at Bohatyreva, but that she had decided to accept the
position. The source added that there was no split in the
party and that, rumors to the contrary, neither Akhmetov nor
Kolesnikov had plans to leave the party. Kolesnikov's public
comments have been fairly neutral, saying that the party
neither supports nor opposes Bohatyreva's decision to accept
the position. He added that she will face some conflicts of
interest, giving the example that Regions will remain opposed
to NATO membership, but the NSDC will presumably work towards
membership. Kolesnikov also stressed that he and Akhmetov
will remain in Regions.


6. (C) Members of Regions were not the only ones surprised by
the appointment. Although Tymoshenko was careful and
diplomatic in her public response to the nomination, BYuT
deputy faction head Yevhen Kornichuk told the press that BYuT
was surprised by the appointment and that it was probably
"done to spite Tymoshenko, as a balance to her activities as
the prime minister." OU-PSD deputy faction leader Tarasyuk
held a press conference to strongly criticize Yushchenko and
his team for making such a nomination for personal reasons
and without consulting their own party first.


7. (C) Privately, Presidential Secretariat (PS) Head Baloha
told Ambassador December 26 that the President wants to unite
the country, which is why he reached out to Bohatyreva to run
the NSDC. Some in OU (Tarasyuk) and some in Regions
(Yanukovych) don't like, Baloha said, but they were not
trying to split Regions. In fact, he argued, they want a
strong Regions. Deputy PS Head Chaliy and Rada Speaker
Yatsenyuk also tried to play the Bohatyreva appointment as a
sign of the President's desire to unite all political forces.
However, political analysts and members of OU-PSD, BYuT,
and former Rada Speaker Moroz have all commented that this
was done intentionally to split Regions, so that cooperation
can be increased with the more progressive wing of the
faction.

Defining the Opposition's Role
--------------


8. (SBU) Tymoshenko and Yanukovych met December 25 in a well
publicized meeting and discussed ways to strengthen the
opposition and to cooperate. They agreed to form a working
group to improve the law on opposition. (Note. They did not
say whether they will use the draft law approved in the first
reading in January 2007, which envisioned wide-ranging powers
for the opposition.) Olena Lukash will lead Regions' team in
the working group. Tymoshenko also offered to let the
opposition decide the Rada's agenda once a month and to give
it the right to report jointly with the government on
important issues such as the budget -- both ideas are also in
the January 2007 draft opposition law. Tymoshenko also
suggested that they adopt a law on temporary investigative
commissions and amend the law on the Accounting Chamber (like
GAO) to allow the opposition to run it and to empower the
Chamber with the right to take violating officials to court
rather than simply presenting information to the Rada; both
proposals would be mechanisms for the opposition to exert
oversight.


9. (SBU) There is little information on how many of
Tymoshenko's offers Yanukovych agreed to, although Regions
declined her offer to let Regions have deputy ministers in
all ministries with responsibility for oversight. However,
Yanukovych said that Regions would support the Tymoshenko
Cabinet's government program if they included reforms
proposed by Regions -- although he has been openly critical
of Tymoshenko's proposal to base the government program on
her campaign platform. To that end, Regions MPs Mykola
Azarov and Iryna Akimova will be involved in drafting the
government program, which Tymoshenko hope to have ready for a
Rada vote soon.


10. (SBU) Yanukovych also announced that Regions has prepared
a draft constitution that would decentralize power,
increasing the importance of regional governments and making
governor an elected position. (Comment. A more
decentralized government system would reduce the President
and Rada's roles in dictating regional policies, giving
Regions much greater control over it homebase of eastern and
southern Ukraine. End comment.)

Shadow Cabinet Sits
--------------


11. (SBU) Regions also has formed a shadow government, which

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held its first meeting December 21. Press reported that the
shadow ministers who participated could not clarify for
journalists what the agenda was, although Yanukovych
commented that their main goal is to monitor the actual
government's work, express their views, and offer alternative
policies. Lyovochkin said that they will meet regularly and
will invite the press to all meetings. Most of the shadow
ministers held the equivalent position in the Yanukovych
government. Some notable changes include: MP Akimova, who
runs Akhmetov's think tank at SCM, as shadow Economy
Minister, Yanukovych foreign policy adviser Gryshchenko as
shadow Foreign Minister, Lyovochkin as shadow head of the
National Bank, and new Regions member Inna Bohoslovska as
shadow head of the State Tax Administration.

Committees Finalized as Regions Gets Out of Way
-------------- --


12. (SBU) Regions also finally stopped blocking the committee
assignments by turning in their candidates for all 27
committees and the standing commission on privatization after
Yatsenyuk threatened to hold the vote on committee
distribution without Regions' input. On December 25, the
Speaker gave Regions until opening of business December 26 to
turn in its proposed committee assignments, which they
complied with. The committees were then approved by 401 MPs.
Committee chairmanships are distributed on a proportional
basis based on faction size, with deputy chairs coming from a
different party than the chair. BYuT received 10 committees,
Regions - 9, OU-PSD - 4, the Communists - 3, and Lytvyn Bloc
- 2.


13. (C) The fact that Regions has fewer committee chairs than
BYuT and the Communists one more than Lytvyn Bloc fuels
rumors that Regions gave the Communists an extra committe in
exchange for the choice of First Deputy Rada Speaker. Lytvyn
Bloc got the Budget Committee, probably the most powerful
committee in the Rada, a move some observers attribute to
Tymoshenko trying to woo Lytvyn into the coalition. Former
Defense Minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko will now chair the
National Security and Defense Committee, which has in the
past been a cooperative partner for the Embassy. The
Communists got the special commission on privatization, the
economic policy committee, and the anti-corruption committee
-- none of which are traditional areas of Communist interest
or expertise. Regions managed to hold on to three important
committees -- Rules, Justice, which handles appointment of
all judges, and Finance and Banking. The coalition split the
difference on external relations, with BYuT chairing the
Foreign Affairs Committee and OU-PSD chairing the
EuroIntegration Committee.


14. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor