UKRAINE: PM GRIDLOCK ILLUSTRATES DYSFUNCTION OF

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: PM GRIDLOCK ILLUSTRATES DYSFUNCTION OF
RADA, PRESIDENT


Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) Summary. Disorganization and infighting within the
orange coalition, particularly within the President's Our
Ukraine-People's Self-Defense party, and continued
intransigence by the Party of Regions have stymied the
confirmation of Yuliya Tymoshenko as Prime Minister. The
December 11 vote on Tymoshenko failed twice, apparently for
technical reasons, when the Rada's computer system did not
accurately count the votes cast and as a result of a Regions'
deputy pulling the Speaker's voting card during the vote.
Since then, Regions MPs have blocked the Rada rostrum and
Speaker's dais, while faction leaders, Speaker Yatsenyuk, and
President Yushchenko in various formats remain locked in
negotiations over Rada rules on revotes, whether to hold the
PM vote before or after votes on Rada leadership, and the
composition of the new government. Although deputies were in
the parliament all day on December 12, the Rada never
convened, finally announcing that the next session would be
postponed until 10 am on December 13. Regions' deputy
faction leader Bohatyreva told the press that she doubted a
PM vote would be held when the Rada resumes work that day.

2. (C) Comment. The Ukrainian government has once again been
sucked into a paralysis that makes it look incompetent and
shows all political forces as unwilling to be constructive.
Regions may be hoping that its intransigence will once again
split the orange coalition, as it did in 2006 when its
month-long blockade of the Rada contributed to the collapse
of the majority agreement between BYuT, OU, and the
Socialists. Regions has masterfully capitalized on the
coalition's, and especially the President's, need to make
Regions feel included, rendering the majority somewhat
useless, since it seeks consensus rather than exercising its
right to hold and win votes. All parties still seem to
believe that in the end Tymoshenko will be confirmed, but the
longer the process drags on the more exposed cracks in the
coalition become. End summary and comment.

Disagreements over Presidential Nominations
--------------


3. (C) The Tymoshenko confirmation vote was originally
scheduled for 10 am on December 11, but was postponed until
the afternoon because Tymoshenko insisted on holding the
Cabinet vote right after her own vote, and Yushchenko and
OU-PSD were still debating several nominees on their quota.
OU-PSD MP, and Okean Elzy rock star, Vakarchuk told us that
Tymoshenko did not want to open up the possibility of
chairing a government whose ministers were all Yanukovych
appointees, even for a short while. Several BYuT MPs,
however, told us that Tymoshenko thought the CabMin vote
would be an additional validation of her own success in
capturing the premiership and she wanted them to happen
together.


4. (C) Despite Tymoshenko's desire for speed, Yushchenko took
the morning of December 11 to discuss ministerial
appointments with his faction leaders. In particular,
coalition MPs told us that the dispute was over the agreed
candidate to be Justice Minister. An Ukrainska Pravda
article citing a document from Tymoshenko reported that
OU-PSD MP Mykola Onishchuk was slotted to become Justice
Minister, but MPs said close presidential ally Roman Zvarych
also wants the job. On December 12, MPs told us that there
was now an additional OU-PSD dispute with the President over
the Education and Agriculture Ministers, the latter is now
reportedly part of the OU-PSD quota. In addition, OU-PSD MPs
we spoke with were all in shock over Yushchenko's nomination
of former Prime Minister Yekhanurov as the Defense Minister,
replacing widely-respected Minister Hrystsenko, who is now
rumored to be in the running for NSDC Secretary.

5. (C) On December 12, coalition MPs told us that they were
now exploring voting on ministers one-by-one to get approval
for at least the BYuT nominees, and possibly some from
OU-PSD. They were not sure, however, whether this would be
the final result when negotiations were finished. (Embassy
note. The Rada rules permit either a package vote on the
whole government slate of candidates or individual votes on
each ministerial position. In August 2006, the Rada approved
the entire cabinet in a package vote. End note.) By
mid-afternoon on December 12, word went out that negotiations
were continuing, and that the Rada would not convene again
until 10 am on December 13, although BYuT MP Vinskiy
suggested to the press that the Rada will first work in
consultation mode rather than in plenary session.

Regions Enjoying the Chaos
--------------


6. (C) Regions MPs like Leonid Kozhara and Volodymyr

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Makeyenko confided to us that they believed Tymoshenko had
the necessary votes to be confirmed. However, the Regions
faction refused to register in the Rada on December 11 and
did not participate in the debate of her candidacy or the
vote. When Yatsenyuk called for the vote and only 225 MPs
were shown to have voted for her, Regions and the Communists
cheered loudly. OU-PSD MPs immediately began shouting that MP
Oleksandr Omelchenko had pressed the yes button but his vote
had not registered in the Rada's electronic voting system.
BYuT MP Denkovych also said that his vote had not been
registered. (Note. Rada MPs are issued electronic voting
cards that they insert into computers on their desks, which
allows them to vote. Votes last about 10 seconds, in which
time MPs must press a button -- yes, no, or abstain -- and
the results are immediately displayed on a large screen in
the chamber. End note.) As part of an investigation into
this incident, the SBU announced that there was nothing wrong
with the computers and Rada deputies must hold their buttons
down for at least two seconds in order to register a vote --
and Omelchenko did not do that.


7. (C) Yatsenyuk then called for a do-over, citing technical
difficulties, prompting about 30 Regions MPs to storm the
rostrum and dais objecting to repeat voting. Regions MP
Lukyanov stood directly behind Yatsenyuk, and just as
Yatsenyuk called for the repeat vote, stole the Speaker's
voting card, rendering him unable to support Tymoshenko and
leading to another 225-vote result, an event caught on tape
and rebroadcast countless times on national television.
Another BYuT MP also reported that his voting card was not
working. (Note. Later, Tarasyuk reminded us that Lukyanov
was also one of the Regions MPs who physically blocked
Tarasyuk, then the Foreign Minister, from entering the CabMin
meeting in December 2006. Lukyanov, an active member of the
Rada's U.S. caucus in the last parliament, was the head of
Yanukovych's Donetsk campaign headquarters during the 2004
presidential election, and then fled to Japan after the
Orange Revolution, fearing reprisals after the falsified
vote. End note.)


8. (C) With Yatsenyuk and Yushchenko abandoning the chamber
to figure out what to do next, Regions took control of the
Rada chamber, barricading the doors leading from the
Speaker's rooms to the floor, and sending MPs to the
balconies where the CabMin, VIPs, diplomats, and journalists
sit, as well as sending one MP to watch over the computers
that govern the electronic voting system. They continued the
barricade on December 12, milling around the floor and
Speaker's dais.


9. (C) Regions MP Miroshnychenko told us on December 12 that
his faction was very pleased with how things were
progressing, meaning the lack of progress. BYuT MP Nemyria
told us that Regions was using the impasse to push in
negotiations for changes in committee composition, including
trying to split some committees in two, and for the Rada to
go back to holding the vote on deputy speakers before the PM
vote or at least before the Cabinet vote. Nemyria also said
that Regions was hoping the delays would exacerbate the
internal struggle within OU-PSD and the Presidential
Secretariat over Cabinet nominees, further weakening the

SIPDIS
whole coalition.

Next Steps Still Unclear
--------------


10. (C) The MPs whose votes were not counted submitted
letters to the Speaker asking for acknowledgment of their
"yes" votes, but to cover their bases, the coalition also
resubmitted their nomination of Tymoshenko to Yushchenko, who
in turn submitted the nomination back to the Rada. The Rada
registered the re-nomination the afternoon of December 12, so
technically-speaking a vote could be scheduled at any time.
BYuT is now insisting that they want a manual vote on
Tymoshenko, with MPs simply raising their hands to be
counted, while Regions insists there were never any problems
with the computers, arguing that Yushchenko and OU-PSD are
trying to cover up their sabotage of the Tymoshenko
confirmation by blaming the 225 result on technology.


11. (C) Yatsenyuk's inexperience may also be adding to the
problem. He said nothing when Lukyanov took his voting card
and did not stop the vote, but rather exited the chamber
rapidly. Yatsenyuk also appears irritated and flustered when
Regions razzes him, finding it hard to control the unruly
Rada. In addition, although Yatsenyuk attended meetings late
on December 11 and early on December 12 with Yushchenko and
faction leaders to negotiate a solution, his press office
told journalists that he did not attend the afternoon meeting
of the Rada Coordination Council and will not attend future

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meetings until Regions unblocks the Rada.


12. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor