UKRAINE: GETTING TO GOVERNMENT - ORANGE COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002967

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: GETTING TO GOVERNMENT - ORANGE COALITION
ELECTS A SPEAKER

REF: KYIV 2923

Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for
reasons 1.4(a,b,d).


1. (C) Summary: After a day of parliamentary maneuvering, the
orange coalition parties of Yuliya Tymoshenko and President
Yushchenko mustered a slim-227 majority vote to elect 33-year
old Foreign Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk as the Speaker of the
Rada. The successful vote showed that the coalition is
viable, apparently surprising opposition forces who doubted
the coalition's ability to elect a Speaker. Yatsenyuk, who
was elected in a secret ballot the evening of December 4,
took the podium minutes after the opposition called foul and
walked out. In his first statement as Speaker, Yatsenyuk
called for unity, offered the opposition the post of First
Deputy Speaker and said that approval of the 2008 budget
would be a top priority. The Rada is scheduled to reconvene
on December 6, although the press is reporting that Yatsenyuk
could forward Tymoshenko's nomination as Prime Minister to
the President as early as December 5, as per Rada rules The
President will have 15 days in which to consider the
nomination and send it back to the Rada for a confirmation
vote that will again challenge the orange coalition to
demonstrate its ability to produce at least 226 votes; the
press reports that Yushchenko wants a package of "12 laws
adopted in violation of the constitution" to be passed before
he will forward Tymoshenko's name to the Rada for a vote.


2. (C) The successful election of Our Ukraine's candidate
for Speaker was a critical first test for the orange
coalition. Up until the result of the vote was announced,
many (including most in the opposition) doubted that BYuT and
OU-PSD could actually get all of their 227 deputies (former
NSDC secretary Plyushch on the OU list declined to support
the coalition) to the chamber and to vote for the orange
candidate. The day's events included an odd mid-day public
gambit by BYuT and OU-PSD to gain Communist Party support for
Yatsenyuk by proposing a package vote for Speaker and the two
deputy Speakers, with Communist Adam Martynuk as candidate
for the First Deputy Speaker post. There was also a scuffle
between a group of Regions and OU-PSD deputies at the end of
the Speaker vote. The walkout of opposition deputies just
before the results of the vote was announced (and their
threat to take the vote to court as illegal) was troubling;
however, Regions deputies announced December 5 that they will
not block the formation of a democratic coalition and will
work with Yatsenyuk in the Rada. All of this is prelude to
the main event -- the vote for Tymoshenko as Prime Minister
and formation of a government. Once the President returns
the nomination to the Rada, orange will need to have all of
its Rada members in their seats and ready to vote for
Tymoshenko. Otherwise, Tymoshenko is expected to make good
on her threat to leave the coalition and join the opposition,
leaving Yushchenko and his team to pick up the pieces and
figure out the next move. End Summary and Comment.

Orange Elects Yatsenyuk Elected as Speaker
--------------


3. (SBU) The orange forces took an important next step
toward forming a Tymoshenko-led government on December 4,
with the successful election of FM Arseniy Yatsenyuk as Rada
Speaker with 227 votes. The day began with great uncertainty
about Yatsenyuk's prospects. As the Rada slogged through
several hours of votes on committee jurisdictions, Yatsenyuk
and orange heavyweights Tymoshenko, Lutsenko and Kyrylenko,
worked the halls to prepare the groundwork for a successful
vote. With Communist Martynyuk in the chair, the Rada set up
the procedures for the secret ballot vote for Speaker
required by the Rada rules, eventually overcoming a deadlock
and agreeing on a chairman (from Lytvyn's Bloc) for the
Counting Commission charged with tallying the ballots for
Speaker. Tymoshenko and her colleagues stayed in the their
seats, worrying that Martynyuk might make a move that would
complicate their effort to elect a Speaker.


4. (C) At mid-day, during a break, in what was
widely-interpreted as reflecting a concern within the orange
coalition that they did not have the votes to ensure
Yatsenyuk's election, Tymoshenko, Kyrylenko and
representatives of the BYuT and OU-PSD factions held a press
conference in which they announced their proposal for a
"package vote" to elect the Speaker and the two deputy
Speakers in one vote. The idea was that in order to shore up
support for Yatsenyuk, the Communist faction (numbering 27
votes),would be offered the position of first Deputy Rada
Speaker in exchange for Communist support for the package
vote. In fact, when the parties returned to the Rada, the
Communists backed a Regions' request to adjourn for the
afternoon prior to nominating a Speaker -- as one BYuT deputy

told us, in order to cut a new deal with Regions in exchange
for their votes. In fact, when the Rada readjourned in the
late afternoon, the Communists did not support the idea of a
package vote, leaving the orange coalition to stand on its
own.


5. (SBU) The first signs that the orange coalition might
have enough support to elect Yatsenyuk was the successful
passage of resolutions to approve the ballot form for the
Speaker vote and agreement to remain in the chamber in order
to elect a Speaker. Just after 6 pm, BYuT deputy Turchynov,
now in the chair, asked all of the factions if they had
candidates. OU-PSD immediately nominated Yatsenyuk; BYuT
supported his nomination. The other parties did not have
candidates. Yatsenyuk, who had met with individual factions
on December 3 and early in the day on December 4, addressed
the Rada and answered questions, skillfully responding to
questions and outlining his priority program as Speaker,
starting with the budget.


6. (SBU) The chair then called for a vote from 7:10 pm until
8:10 pm, with counting scheduled for the following hour and
an announcement of the results scheduled for 9:15 pm.
Deputies from OU-PSD, BYuT and Lytvyn's Bloc lined up to
receive their ballots; Regions and the Communists chose not
to take part. (Embassy note: In July 2006, OU and BYuT also
decided not to take part in the election of Moroz as Speaker.
End note.) OU-PSD and BYuT deputies then lined up to pass
through two polling booths, especially set up for the vote
outside the Rada chamber; although they picked up ballots,
Lytvyn Bloc deputies decided not to vote. Apparently,
Tymoshenko and Turchynov stationed themselves near the
polling booths -- Regions has alleged that they improperly
checked each ballot before it was dropped into the ballot
box. Near the end of the vote, a group of Regions deputies
reportedly approached the line and attempted to take ballots
from several OU-PSD deputies. There was a small fist-fight
that ended quickly. By 8:45 pm, word was out that Yatsenyuk
had been elected -- all 227 deputies taking part in the vote
had supported his candidacy. A beaming Tymoshenko returned
to the Rada floor where Yatsenyuk was presented with 100 red
roses.


7. (SBU) Just a few minutes before the results were
officially announced, Regions' faction leader Raisa
Bohatyreva motioned to Communist faction leader Symonyenko
and the two factions walked out of the chamber, alleging
improprieties with the voting, including the "checking" of
ballots, and arguing that individual deputies had not been
given an opportunity to self-nominate for Speaker. After the
official announcement, Yatsenyuk went up to the podium and
after thanking the coalition, thanked the opposition for
allowing the vote to happen and pledged to work with the
opposition, offering them the position of First Deputy
Speaker. The deputies then spontaneously sang the national
anthem. Lytvyn Bloc deputies and Regions Deputy Taras
Chornovil remained in the chamber; the Rada recessed until
December 6.

Is the PM Vote Next?
--------------


8. (C) Although the orange coalition passed the first
public test and successfully elected a Speaker, Tymoshenko's
election as Prime Minister is by no means a done deal.
Although press reports state that the faction conveyed
Tymoshenko's name to the Rada Speaker to be conveyed to
President Yushchenko on December 5, there is no confirmation
from the Rada or the Presidential Administration that this
has happened yet. Yushchenko has also been coy in his public
response to the vote and his approach to the creation of a
new government. His first public comments congratulated
Yatsenyuk on his election, and noted that the new Speaker
would bring stability to the Rada. Later, during a meeting
with local officials from the regions, Yushchenko reportedly
later said that he wanted passage of 12 key laws, initially
adopted by the previous Rada in a form in "violation of the
constitution," before there was a vote for Prime Minister.
Yushchenko's comments imply that he might very well use the
15 days accorded him by the constitution before sending
Tymoshenko's name back to the Rada for a vote. Tymoshenko
told the press today that she hopes the government will be
formed "within the next two weeks" and said that on December
6, the Rada will start electing committee heads and forming a
temporary commission to review the President's 12 bills. Key
among the 12 bills is a new Law on the Cabinet of Ministers,
that would limit the Prime Minister's powers in a number of
key areas important to the President.


9. (SBU) Regions, although critical in public about the

process by which Yatsenyuk was elected, is also stating
publicly that it will return to the Rada and work with
Yatsenyuk as Speaker. PM Yanukovych criticized Tymoshenko
for her methods of getting a Speaker elected, calling it
"dictatorial democracy," but also congratulated Yatsenuk on
his election as Speaker. Other Regions deputies said that
they were ready for opposition and planned to focus on work
in committees of greatest interest to its voters. Rumor has
it that Regions was furious with the Communists for having
considered a deal to support Yatsenyuk in exchange for
getting the First Deputy Rada Speaker position. One BYuT
member alleged that Communist faction leader Symenyenko had
been called in to see PM Yanukovych who convinced him that
cooperating with Tymoshenko was a bad idea.

Yatsenyuk Bio Notes
--------------


10. (SBU) Yatsenyuk is the youngest Rada Speaker ever to be
elected in Ukraine's history. Born on May 22, 1974, in
Chernivtsiy (near the Romanian border),the 33-year old has
been Minister of Foreign Affairs since March 21, 2007, when
his appointment was confirmed by the previous Rada by 400
plus (out of 450) votes. Trained as a lawyer and as an
economist, Yatsenyuk burst on to the political scene in 2001,
when he became the Minister of Economy in the Autonomous
Republic of Crimean Government. He was a deputy Governor of
the National Bank and deputy head of the Odesa oblast
administration before becoming Minister of Economy in
September 2005 in the Yekhanurov Government. In September
2006, when the Yanukovych Government came into power, he
became the deputy head of the Presidential Administration and
then moved to the Foreign Ministry. Yatsenyuk is fluent in
English, married and has two young daughters. Yatsenyuk has
been a long-time good contact of the Embassy in all of his
government positions and is expected to be an acceptable
Speaker for both the orange coalition parties as well as the
opposition.


11. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor