Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KYIV2744
2007-11-02 13:28:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kyiv
Cable title:  

UKRAINE: RADA PREPARATIONS SLOWLY ADVANCING

Tags:  PGOV PREL UP 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHKV #2744/01 3061328
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P 021328Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4244
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 002744 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: RADA PREPARATIONS SLOWLY ADVANCING

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Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 002744

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: RADA PREPARATIONS SLOWLY ADVANCING

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Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) Summary. The process of preparing to seat the new
Rada is moving forward slowly, while fissures in the orange
coalition continue to appear even before it has officially
become a coalition. As required by law, the Central Election
Commission is now registering MPs and all five factions have
named their representatives to the preparatory group that
will set the date and prepare the agenda for the Rada
opening; the preparatory group has not yet met, but should do
so by November 6. Many representatives for Regions and Our
Ukraine-People's Self Defense (OU-PSD) are personally loyal
to PM Yanukovych and President Yushchenko, respectively,
meaning the two leaders will have a lot of say in the
process. In the meantime, at least three members of OU-PSD
have so far refused to sign the preliminary coalition
agreement, an issue that other OU-PSD leaders are downplaying
in the press, but which underscores the continued reluctance
of part of the pro-presidential bloc to support a
Tymoshenko-led government. Perhaps seeking to capitalize on
this continued uncertainty within the orange ranks, Prime
Minister Yanukovych made a conciliatory speech at the October
31 Cabinet of Ministers meeting trying to emphasize his
willingness to work with President Yushchenko.


2. (C) Comment. Although many interlocutors now give the
orange coalition a better than even chance of being
confirmed, the rumblings coming from OU-PSD suggest even if
the coalition gets off the ground, it may be shortlived.
Former OU-PSD MP Nataliya Prokopovych on November 1 became
the latest of a long line of politicians and analysts to
predict that Tymoshenko wants the premiership now, but will
be looking for a way out of the orange coalition by fall 2008
at the latest. According to this argument, Tymoshenko's best
strategy for winning the 2009/2010 presidential election
would be to go into opposition, claiming Yushchenko blocked
her efforts to fulfill campaign promises and improve the
lives of average Ukrainians. Yanukovych's speech suggests
that he is looking to capitalize on this tension within the

orange camp by offering himself up as a more reliable partner
for Yushchenko. End summary and comment.

Preparatory Group Formed, Waiting to Work
--------------


3. (SBU) With OU-PSD's late October 30 announcement of the
names of its five members in the Rada preparatory group, the
group is now complete and can get to work. This group will
set the date for the Rada's opening, put together the agenda
for the opening day, agree on the list of Rada committees,
and establish the temporary presidium that will chair Rada
sessions until a Speaker is elected. However, under Rada
rules, the Speaker from the previous Rada, or his deputy,
should convene the group within ten days after promulgation
of the official election results -- or by November 6 -- but
former Speaker Moroz has not done so and, according to his
spokesman, is currently ill. If neither Moroz nor his deputy
from the previous Rada, Communist deputy Martynyuk, calls the
preparatory group together by November 6, then the group can
convene itself. BYuT MP Iosip Vinskiy claimed Moroz was
delaying the work of the preparatory group and therefore the
Rada. A second BYuT MP, Mykola Tomenko, told the press that
another reason for the delay was that the CEC was slow to
register MPs and the group could not convene until all its
members are registered. He thought the group could start its
work on November 5 or 6 and the Rada could hold its opening
session November 20.


4. (C) Rada rules state that the composition of the group is
dependent on faction sizes, with each faction entitled to 1
representative to the group for every 15 faction members.
This means that Regions should have 12, BYuT 10, OU-PSD 5,
Communists 2, and Lytvyn Bloc 1. Strangely, Regions has not
publicly announced its full list, although MP Olena
Bondarenko told us that there will be 12 Regions MPs there.
So far, we have heard that members include Yanukovych, First
Deputy PM Mykola Azarov, DPM Andriy Klyuyev, DPM Volodymyr
Rybak, PM Chief of Staff Serhiy Lyovochkin, PM speechwriter
Hanna Herman, Akhmetov ally Borys Kolesnikov, faction head
Raisa Bohatyreva, and the PM's former personal lawyer Olena
Lukash. It is interesting that of the nine names publicly
released, most are close to Yanukovych personally, with only
Kolesnikov and maybe Bohatyreva from the Akhmetov wing of the
party.


5. (SBU) BYuT's 10 members are: Tymoshenko, Oleksandr
Turchynov, Vinskiy, Tomenko, Viktor Pynzenyk, Yevhen
Kornichuk, Serhiy Sas, Petro Krupko, Vsyevolod Borodin and
Yehven Kyrylchuk. The first six are all members of BYuT's
presidium. Krupko was the deputy head of the BYuT campaign
headquarters this year, as well as Minister of the Cabinet of

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Ministers in the 2005 Tymoshenko government. OU-PSD named
bloc leader Yuriy Lutsenko, faction leader Vyacheslav
Kyrylenko, Borys Tarasyuk, Roman Zvarych, and Ruslan
Knyazevych to the preparatory group. Zvarych's presence in
particular suggests that Yushchenko will have a say in
OU-PSD's position in the group. The Lytvyn Bloc put forward
as their representative Ihor Sharov, a Pinchuk ally who ran
the Lytvyn Bloc's campaign.

Reluctance of OU-PSD for Orange Coalition
--------------


6. (C) There has been ongoing discussion in the media this
week that some members of OU-PSD had not yet signed the
coalition agreement with BYuT. Zvarych and Oleksandr
Tretyakov acknowledged on November 1 that it was true, but
tried to calm speculation that this was a sign of internal
discontent. It is not clear how many signatures are missing;
the latest press reports said three -- those of NSDC
Secretary Ivan Plyushch, Ihor Kryl, and Mukachave mayor and

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Presidential Chief of Staff Baloha relative Vasily Petyovka
-- although there have also been reports that National Bank
Chairman Volodymyr Stelmakh and Foreign Minister Yatsenyuk
(who appears to be legitimately ill given that he missed the
Swedish FM's visit this week) had not signed. Tretyakov told
the press that President Yushchenko had asked all bloc
members to sign the agreement and said that he believed this
will happen soon. Zvarych said that those who had not yet
signed, were delaying for "ethical reasons". They promised
to publish a list of all who had signed the agreement once
all the necessary signatures had been obtained. (Note. This
coalition agreement is only preliminary because no formal
agreement can be signed until the Rada is seated and factions
formed, meaning that the demand for all OU-PSD MPs to sign
the agreement now is more a show of faith than a legal
necessity. However, having the document fully signed ahead
of the Rada opening will allow Tymoshenko to get the
coalition registered much faster. End note.)


7. (C) Nataliya Prokopovych, an outgoing MP from OU-PSD who
has close ties to Yuriy Yekhanurov, told the Ambassador on
November 1 that despite all the internal discussions, when
the time came to sign the formal coalition agreement and vote
for the Prime Minister, OU-PSD would all be on one page. The
party leadership had already agreed that it would expel any
MP who broke party discipline from the Rada. (Note. There
could be some legal difficulties in expelling MPs. Even
Prokopovych acknowledged that a deputy might go to court to
fight the expulsion. End note.) Now Lutsenko and Kyrylenko,
and to a lesser degree Yushchenko, were holding individual
meetings with all the members to discuss faction discipline
and coalitions. However, she added that she thought the
orange government would collapse within a year because by the
second half of 2008 Tymoshenko would be looking for a way to
return to the opposition ahead of the presidential election.
Prokopovych thought Tymoshenko's strategy would be to claim
that Yushchenko and OU-PSD had constrained her, preventing
her from fulfilling all of her 2007 campaign promises.
(Note. This is a scenario we have heard from politicians and
analysts of all stripes. End note.)

PM Makes Conciliatory Speech in Bid for Broad Coalition
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) Yanukovych made a speech at the opening of the
October 31 Cabinet meeting that garnered a great deal of
press attention. In his 30-minute opening address in front
of the cameras, the PM underscored how well his team works
with the President and emphasized that the two share policy
goals. (Embassy note. The PM made the same points privately
to us during his meetings with former Secretary Powell and
Ambassador Holbrooke. End note). The PM talked about the
importance of cooperation among all branches of government
for the sake of reaching national goals. On several
occasions he stressed that he supported the President's
position, which he said was crucial for good relations
between the government and parliament. He also criticized
those who are "dizzy with success and claim they have won" as
harming the country's interests, a clear dig at Tymoshenko.


9. (C) Comment. The speech seems to be a conciliatory
gesture aimed at reassuring Yushchenko, and perhaps a wider
audience, that a broad coalition is a reasonable option. In
doing so, he tried to show that he and Yushchenko were on the
same page while Tymoshenko only cared about wining elections.
Similar conciliatory comments have been made other members
of the Yanukovych government in the past week, such as DPM
Kuzmuk's statement of support for the OU-PSD position on
conscription, one of the most divisive issues between BYuT
and OU-PSD. End comment.


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10. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor