UKRAINE: YANUKOVYCH SUGGESTS REGIONS WON'T ACCEPT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 002522

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: YANUKOVYCH SUGGESTS REGIONS WON'T ACCEPT
ORANGE; WANTS YUSHCHENKO TO AGREE TO BROAD COALITION

Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(a,b,d).


1. (C) Summary: PM Yanukovych told the Ambassador October 3
that Regions had the right to form the government as the
party with the most votes and was willing to negotiate with
all of the parties to form a coalition, but that it could not
accept an orange coalition and government. According to
Yanukovych, a BYuT-Our Ukraine-People's Self Defense
coalition would violate the deal Regions made with President
Yushchenko this past spring that the result of the pre-term
election would be a broad coalition between Regions and Our
Ukraine. The PM said that an orange government would
represent only half the electorate and destroy the country;
his party could not let that happen. The Ambassador
responded that we understood from Presidential Administration
Deputy Oleksandr Chaliy that Yushchenko would welcome a
three- or even a four-party coalition. If that did not
happen, then he wanted the new government, presumably orange,
to include the opposition, presumably Regions, by offering
high-level cabinet positions and the highest position (the
Speaker) in the Rada. The Ambassador stressed to the PM that
he, his colleagues in Washington and the international
community had not chosen sides in this election and that a
Regions' decision to refuse to accept their seats in the new
Rada and to call for new elections would not be
well-received, would damage Ukraine's reputation and make
western support for Ukrainian ambitions with regard to
accession to the WTO, a Free Trade Agreement with the EU and
progress on economic and judicial reform very difficult. End
Summary.


2. (C) Comment. A subdued Yanukovych, flanked by chief of
staff Lyovochkin and foreign policy advisor Gryshchenko, was
intense and serious in this meeting and appeared to be still
reeling from BYuT's showing in the election. Yanukovych's
tough message -- either a broad coalition including us or
we'll bring the house down -- might have been a trial balloon
to see if the U.S. would support Regions' view that a broad
coalition would be the best result for the country. It might
also have been a statement of the maximalist position going
into negotiations, designed to put pressure on Yushchenko and
Tymoshenko to reach an accommodation with Regions. Or it
could simply be Regions' bottom line -- they would restart
the political crisis rather than go quietly into the
opposition (with or without leadership positions in the
government). In a subsequent meeting, potential coalition
partner for all sides Lytvyn told the Ambassador that he
heard the same message from the Regions camp -- either a
broad coalition or there would be no government. The
coalition dance and negotiations will probably go on for the
next ten days or two weeks -- until the Central Election
Commission releases the official final results. Until then,
we will continue to meet with all of the major leaders,
including Rinat Akhmetov to see if there is division within
the Regions camp about the way ahead. We will also continue
to urge all parties to move quickly to form a coalition and a
new government. However, it looks to us like Yushchenko may
have promised both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych last spring that
he would form a coalition with their parties after the
election -- and, never dreaming that BYuT would do well
enough to make an orange government possible, is stuck with
both sides demanding that he honor his promise. End Summary
and Comment.

Yanukovych - Broad Coalition Promised?
--------------


3. (C) The PM began by restating what he has told the press
since the election results started coming in -- Regions was
the highest vote-getter in the election and therefore,
according to European practice, had the right to form a
coalition. (Embassy Note. Although this may be European
practice and common in some countries, neither Ukrainian law
nor tradition promise the winner of the election the sole
right to form a coalition. End Note.) He said that he had
met with President Yushchenko October 3 and that Regions
supported the President's call for the parties to start
negotiations to form a coalition and a government as soon as
possible. Yanukovych noted that Regions had formed a Working
Group to represent the party in coalition talks and that
letters had been sent to each of the political parties
entering the Rada; the next step would be the preparation of
a coalition agreement. He said that a coalition would have
to agree on certain principles, but that would not be
difficult -- President Yushchenko had laid out the right
priorities in his October 3 public statement -- economic
development of the country, a new quality social policy
(taking Yushchenko initiatives into account),elimination of
immunity for parliamentary deputies, passage of a new budget,
adoption of a package of anti-corruption laws and

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establishment of a new anti-corruption agency, energy
security, and agreement on a new version of the constitution.
All of this could be accomplished by the new Rada.


4. (C) However, according to Yanukovych, he wanted to sound
a warning about the possible establishment of an orange
coalition. In short, the Party of Regions believed that such
a coalition would be a danger for the country and the
beginning of instability and turmoil. In his view, an orange
coalition would be incapable of governing -- and once again,
it would divide the country into parts. Yanukovych said that
Regions would propose a "Coalition of National Unity" to take
into account the interests of wider civil society, and most
importantly, create the conditions for stability. Now
Regions was waiting for the CEC to announce the final results
of the elections and the important thing was to conduct
careful, regular negotiations until the moment when the
election results are final.


5. (C) Yanukovych repeated again and again that the
priority for the Party of Regions is stability. He accused
Yuliya Tymoshenko's bloc of standing for political
confrontation and said that the "orange government" option
has already been tried and it failed. It would be very
expensive to repeat such a mistake. According to Yanukovych,
"now much depends upon the position of Yushchenko. We
supported the position of Yushchenko in making a decision to
accept pre-term elections and we believed that we needed to
go through this period in order to unite the country. If
Yushchenko violates our agreement, then we will have to
choose our own way," (Embassy note. In this way,
Yanukovych implied that Regions had agreed to pre-term
elections only on the condition that Yushchenko agree to form
a broad coalition once the results were in. End note.)

Regions Considering Blocking Orange
--------------


6. (C) The Ambassador noted that deputy head of the
presidential administration Chaliy had explained to him that
Yushchenko had invited the top three parties to begin
negotiations and that, according to Chaliy, Yushchenko would
welcome agreement on a broad coalition. However, in light of
Tymoshenko's recent public statements against the idea, did
the PM think this option was possible? Yanukovych responded
bitterly, noting that it was clear from Tymoshenko's reaction
to the President's statement that she considered herself to
be the winner of the elections and to have the right to form
a government. Yanukovych disagreed on two issues -- first,
she was not the winner of the elections and therefore had no
right to form a government since this was a violation of
democratic principles. In addition, such a coalition would
not achieve stability for the country, it would divide it.
Second, Regions could simply not allow Tymoshenko to form a
government. This would "violate the rights of our voters"
and Regions would have to defend them since this was the
responsible position to take. He stressed that Regions would
not violate Ukrainian law; however, Regions would not allow a
first parliamentary session to be conducted that would lead
to an orange coalition and government. (Note. Although not
stated explicitly, the PM's statement indicates that Regions
is considering not taking their parliamentary seats, which
under the constitution, would lead to the Rada being
inquorate and unable to meet. End note.)


7. (C) Yanukovych said that as a result, parliament would
be inquorate and then "we will have to have early elections
within two months." (Note: Unclear whether this is legally
possible since the constitution stipulates that there must be
a year between general elections. However, an inquorate
parliament could lead to the current government remaining in
place pending a new election, leaving both Yushchenko and
Yanukovych in office attempting to govern by decree without a
parliament and without a budget. End note). He said that in
this case, Regions would run a radical campaign. During this
past election, Regions had been moderate and conducted a
reasonable campaign since this had been part of the deal with
Yushchenko -- to form a broad coalition after the elections.
However, Yanukovych said, if these agreements are not
fulfilled, then Regions will set a new goal to win the next
election at any cost. Regions wanted unity, but if
necessary, it would take a new path. It was too early to
decide this and it would not be the decision of just one
person -- the party's "Politrada" would make that decision --
but, according to Yanukovych, "we know what the decision
will be since there is no alternative." In the PM's view,
Yushchenko had to find the political will to do his
constitutional duty. He gave his oath to serve the entire
people of Ukraine, not just one part, and now he has no other
choice but to do his constitutional duty.

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8. (C) When the Ambassador asked whether this more radical
campaign would again raise issues like the status of the
Russian language and neutrality, Yanukovych responded that he
did not want to talk about these topics now. What was
important was that one-half of Ukraine must think about
itself -- that it exists and that there is a political force
that protects its interests. He said "this is our duty. If
this force is thrown out of power without consideration of
its opinion, then there will have to be a relevant response."
Yanukovych emphasized that "we don't want this to happen,"
however, this would be the consequence of a Yushchenko
decision to violate our agreement. Yanukovych said that all
Regions wants to do is unite the country and stabilize the
political/economic situation, undertake reforms and live a
normal life. The only thing missing is the political will of
Yushchenko. The PM noted that his October 3 conversation
with the President had been fruitful; it was unclear how
conversations today and tomorrow would go.

Prepare for A Negative U.S. Reaction
--------------


9. (C) Responding to the PM's request for his opinion, the
Ambassador noted that we have had a consistent position
throughout this election -- we have not chosen sides and we
still do not choose sides. The U.S. supports a strong,
united, democratic and European Ukraine. The Ambassador said
that the USG hopes that Ukraine's political parties can
succeed in creating a government that can move Ukraine in
this direction. However, when faced with the radical
scenario that Regions says it hopes will not come to pass --
refusing to take parliamentary seats and provoking the
calling of new elections, the U.S. and others in the
international community would not want to see that happen.
The Ambassador said that "you will be disappointed in our
response; and we will be disappointed in your actions." The
Ambassador reiterated that the USG was pleased by the conduct
of the elections and that the "voice of the Ukrainian people
was heard and not distorted." But that voice needs to be
translated by responsible political forces into a government
and that government will have a Cabinet of Ministers and an
opposition. The U.S. would like to see any new government
make Ukraine stronger, more democratic and more economically
prosperous.


10. (C) Returning to the last-resort possibility outlined by
the PM, the Ambassador said that "you don't want this and we
don't want it either." He warned that this would "damage
Ukraine's good reputation." It would also make all the
decisions regarding the WTO, a Free Trade Agreement with
Europe and support for political and economic reform more
difficult. The Ambassador pledged to meet with
representatives from other political forces over the next few
days and to urge all of them, as he did with Regions, to act
responsibly for the good of all of Ukraine. In this way,
Ukraine would maintain its reputation for the democratic
resolution of disputes.


11. (C) PM Yanukovych responded that there are ten days or
two weeks ahead in which to conduct negotiations and that if
all goes well, it would still be possible to unite the
country -- "there is no reason to think that this must all
end badly." However, Yanukovych stressed, he believed that
it was important to provide a warning and that Regions was
prepared to take the political responsibility for its actions
in response to the election results and the breaking of any
promises made by Yushchenko.


12. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor