UKRAINE: YUSHCHENKO CALLS FOR PARTIES TO BEGIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 002517

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: YUSHCHENKO CALLS FOR PARTIES TO BEGIN
COALITION TALKS

KYIV 00002517 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) Summary. With less than one half of one percent of
the vote still uncounted, the political parties are starting
to slowly extend feelers on various coalition formations.
President Yushchenko made the biggest stir of the day by
holding a press conference in which he called on all the
parties that appear to be headed for the Rada, especially
Party of Regions, BYuT, and Our Ukraine-People's Self
Defense, to begin coalition negotiations. Yanukovych's team
and the press have interpreted this as a possible call for a
broad coalition, but Tymoshenko and OU-PSD leaders Kyrylenko
and Lutsenko came out quickly to say that the President did
not call for a broad coalition. We think it was more of a
presidential attempt to reach out to all sides, but there is
definitely ongoing discussion within the Presidential
Administration about how quickly Yushchenko should reach out
to embrace an orange government. Meanwhile, a debate is also
continuing within Regions as to whether they can still
challenge the outcome of the elections or should move forward
with events as they happen. End summary.

The Numbers: 99 Percent Counted
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2. (SBU) All the major political parties continue to watch
the CEC reports of the preliminary results. Counting
continues slowly, but only eight district election
commissions (DEC) are still in the process of reporting, with
just two DECs -- in Simferopol in Crimea, and Odesa -- still
under 90 percent reported. With 99.73 percent of the
preliminary vote counted, Regions has 34.31 percent, BYuT
with 30.76 percent, Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense with
14.16 percent, Lytvyn People's Party with 3.96 percent, the
Communists with 5.38 percent and the Socialists, under the
threshold with 2.86 percent. This would potentially give an
orange BYuT/OU-PSD coalition 228 seats in the new Rada -- two
more than the 226 needed to form a coalition.


3. (C) By our count, the 0.28 percent of the vote still
outstanding equals about 63,000 votes. Even if all these
votes went to Regions, this could only increase Regions'
percentage by about 0.01 percent which would not change the
numbers. And if they all went to the Socialists, this would
also not get the Socialists over the 3 percent threshold.
The CEC had earlier predicted that counting would be
completed October 3, but it is unclear when the final numbers
will actually be posted. The three major parties have
continued to delay taking any major public steps in the
direction of coalition-building or criticizing the conduct of
the elections pending the complete reporting of the
preliminary results. The Socialists and Communists have been
alleging massive fraud in the elections and are threatening a
range of possible legal actions.

Yushchenko Coalition Talks Should Begin
--------------


4. (SBU) The only news of the day came from President
Yushchenko who made an October 3 public statement in which he
said that international observers have concluded that the
elections, for the most part, met international standards and
called on the three main parties -- Regions, BYuT, and OU-PSD
as well as the other victors -- to begin coalition
negotiations. He said that all the parties that made it into
the Rada should show political wisdom and work to unite the
country. Yushchenko also noted that the "political forces in
the newly elected parliament must formulate a model of
cooperation between the government and opposition on the
basis of their common agenda." He then laid out his top
priorities for the new government: adopt a sound economic
program; abolish deputy's immunity; draft the 2008 budget
taking into account his social payment initiatives; approve
an anti-corruption legislative package; ensure energy
security; and reform the constitution.


5. (C) Yuschenko's statement was quickly interpreted by the
press as a possible call for negotiations to form a broad
coalition, rather than an appeal for all the parties to begin
negotiations on creating a coalition. PM Yanukovych quickly
made a pres statement noting that he "backs the position that
the president presented in his statement concerning the
formation of a coalition at the Verkhovna Rada." A BYuT
spokesman, former Rada deputy Andriy Shevchenko, told the
press that the President had not called for a broad coalition
and denied that Yushchenko was attempting to drag out the
process. OU-PSD leaders Kyrylenko and Lutsenko, as well as
the party's legal eagle Mykola Onischuk, said that the
president's call for a start to talks on creating a broad
coalition does not mean that there is a possibility of a

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broad coalition in the parliament. Tymoshenko merely
restated her position that there is no chance of a broad
coalition with Regions and "in the event of a coalition
between Our Ukraine and the Regions party, our political
force will be in opposition."


6. (C) Comment. In spite of the lack of clarity in
Yushchenko's statement, we do not think the President was
trying to call for a broad coalition. Instead, his statement
seemed to be an attempt to remain neutral and an effort to
say very little and be statesman-like by reaching out to all
political forces. In fact, he may have meant the three
parties should negotiate and decide the question of who would
form the coalition and who would be in the opposition, in
hopes that the opposition would play a more constructive role
in the new Rada. Interestingly, Deputy Head of the
Presidential Secretariat Chaliy told the Ambassador about two
hours before the press conference (which was delayed for
several hours after it was first announced) that Yushchenko
planned to use the speech to announce a new orange coalition.
The fact that Yushchenko did not make such an announcement
suggests that either the President or his team decided such a
statement would be premature. Certainly many here believe
that a formal announcement of a coalition should only come
after the CEC announces the official final results. Comments
from several in OU-PSD and the Presidential Secretariat
indicate that if Yushchenko decides to go with an orange
coalition, then he is still thinking about how to offer
something to Regions in the way of senior positions in order
to ease the pain of not being in the government and
symbolically unite the country. End comment.


7. (SBU) Privately, Yushchenko met separately with Tymoshenko
and Lytvyn on October 2, but no results were announced.
Tymoshenko and an OU-PSD spokesman said that neither will
formally engage in coalition talks until the election results
are announced.

Regions Weighs Its Options
--------------


8. (C) According to a Regions insider, Regions leaders are
still divided over what strategy to adopt in response to a
potential orange coalition. Some were advocating playing it
straight and letting Tymoshenko form the government. Others
were still looking for ways to change the outcome of the
vote. The party plans to watch the Socialists' court
challenges carefully and is considering some of their own to
get recounts in major districts.


9. (C) Note. Our understanding of the election law says that
results can only be challenged in individual PSCs and must be
filed within two days of the alleged election violation.
This means that Regions has lost its chance to appeal results
in most PSCs, which turned in their results promptly on
Monday. Regions does, however, still have the option to
contest the entire election, which would send the issue to
the Higher Administration Court. If they lost that case,
they still would have the right to appeal to the Supreme
Court, but the Supreme Court is unlikely to hear the case
because elections now fall under the jurisdiction of the
Administrative Court system. In fact, the head of the
international relations department at the Supreme Court told
us emphatically on October 3 that she believed there was no
role for the Supreme Court in these elections. End note.


10. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor