UKRAINE: UNCERTAIN FUTURE FOR COMMUNITY OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000214

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2017
TAGS: PREL KDEM GG UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: UNCERTAIN FUTURE FOR COMMUNITY OF
DEMOCRATIC CHOICE

REF: A. 06 VILNIUS 442

B. 06 TBLISI 642

C. 05 KIEV 5100

D. 05 KIEV 4029

Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) Summary. The Community of Democratic Choice (CDC),as
described in an August 2005 joint statement by Ukrainian
President Yushchenko and Georgian President Saakashvili, was
to be a continuing dialogue and series of meetings to promote
democracy, human rights, and civil society in former Soviet
republics and Warsaw Pact countries (refs C and D). However,
for the past six-eight months, there has been little action.
FM Tarasyuk is committed to keeping the Community of
Democratic Choice from fading into oblivion and hopes to hold
a forum in 2008 focusing on energy related political issues.
However, his colleagues in the MFA say that meaningful
planning for a CDC forum is not possible until the struggle
between Yushchenko and Yanukovych over the MFA's leadership,
in particular Tarasyuk's own future, is resolved. Some NGO
analysts are very negative about CDC's future, arguing that
the Yanukovych Government has little interest in promoting it.


2. (C) Comment. The CDC was hailed as a powerful impetus for
democratic change in the region after its inaugural December
2, 2005 forum that was attended by U/S Dobriansky, presidents
of nine countries in the area, several other government
delegations, and observers from the EU and the OSCE. After
the inaugural meeting, several conferences were held under
CDC auspices in 2006 (refs A and B),including a May 4
conference in Vilnius which attracted worldwide attention for
Vice President Cheney's keynote address critical of Russian
interference in new democracies. Since the future of the CDC
depends upon the struggle over who controls the Foreign
Ministry and the attitude of the Yanukovych government, which
may be reluctant to fully embrace what is widely seen as a
Yushchenko and Tarasyuk initiative, the prospects for CDC are
uncertain. End Summary and comment.


Ukrainian MFA is Still Pushing the CDC
--------------


3. (SBU) Although there has been little to report on the CDC
since the May 2006 Vilnius Summit, FM Tarasyuk raised this
issue in a January 12 meeting with the Ambassador arguing
that Ukraine remains strongly committed to the organization.
He noted that CDC completed all the meetings agreed to in New
York in September 2005 and asked that the U.S. pay more
attention to the CDC and not let the process wither away.
Tarasyuk would like to set up a schedule of meetings for the
next few years and said that he had already talked to the
Poles about hosting the next one. When we checked with out
Polish Embassy colleagues here, they knew nothing about the
proposal.


4. (C) On January 23, MFA Political Department First
Secretary Ihor Kulish, responsible at the working level for

SIPDIS
CDC, said he recently spoke with First Deputy Head of the
Presidential Secretariat Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who said Ukraine
should take the initiative in organizing another CDC forum.
Kulish felt that the CDC meetings should be annual and the
topic, "practical." MFA favored an energy related topic for
the next CDC meeting and envisioned convening an "Energy
Dialogue of Three Seas." The forum would address political
questions of "predictability and stability" and not just be a
meeting of energy ministers. The MFA had sounded out
participants at the May 3-5 CDC meeting in Vilnius regarding
possible hosts for the next CDC meeting. Macedonia, Estonia
and Poland had been approached, but none had replied. More
recently, the MFA had approached the Czech Republic about
hosting the forum in Prague. Although Kulish was not
optimistic about the prospects of a meeting in 2007, he said
there were very good signs that the Czechs would be willing
to host such a gathering in 2008.


5. (C) Kulish explained that the current discord between
President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yanukovych precluded
detailed preparations for a CDC meeting. He noted that an
organizing committee for such an event would be headed by a
Deputy Prime Minister -- an unimaginable prospect under
current circumstances in which FM Tarasyuk was barred from
weekly cabinet meetings. He also remarked that there are
budget constraints both in Kyiv and Prague to consider before
organizing a CDC event.

Growing Doubts Elsewhere
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6. (U) Oleksandr Sushko of the Institute of Euro-Atlantic

KYIV 00000214 002 OF 002


Cooperation sounded a pessimistic note. He opined that the
CDC was overly dependent on the political situation in
Ukraine immediately after the Orange Revolution and that the
current Ukrainian government did not share the same ideals or
priorities. Sushko claimed that those who founded the CDC
had not filled it with specific substance and that its goals
remained amorphous. He said that the forum held in Vilnius
did not have the word "community" in its official documents
and cited this as evidence that countries in the region were
no longer taking the organization seriously.


7. (SBU) Comment. Although the CDC is mentioned in passing
in the fourth paragraph of the Joint Communique found on the
Vilnius conference website (www.vilniusconference 2006.lt)
the lack of emphasis on the CDC antecedents to the conference
does call into question the commitment of participants to a
future for CDC. Since CDC is viewed as the brainchild of
Yushchenko and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, as
implemented by FM Tarasyuk, it reflects their vision for the
region. Although Yushchenko will retain influence at MFA, a
further Ukrainian commitment to CDC's future will depend in
large part upon the attitude of the Yanukovych government.
With Yushchenko's authority under fire, the future of CDC
seems uncertain at best as Yushchenko will be distracted and
unlikely to be able to expend much political capital to
ensure CDC's viability in the near term.


8. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor