Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KYIV1971
2007-08-10 12:51:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kyiv
Cable title:  

UKRAINE: THE ORANGE REVOLUTION AND UNEASY

Tags:  PGOV PREL UP 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7289
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHKV #1971/01 2221251
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 101251Z AUG 07
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3347
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 KYIV 001971 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: THE ORANGE REVOLUTION AND UNEASY
BEDFELLOWS: OUR UKRAINE-PEOPLE'S SELF DEFENSE CONGRESS

REF: KYIV 001940

KYIV 00001971 001.2 OF 005


Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 KYIV 001971

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: THE ORANGE REVOLUTION AND UNEASY
BEDFELLOWS: OUR UKRAINE-PEOPLE'S SELF DEFENSE CONGRESS

REF: KYIV 001940

KYIV 00001971 001.2 OF 005


Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) Summary. The nine parties of the democratic megabloc
came together August 7 to formally become the Our
Ukraine-People's Self Defense (OU-PSD) election bloc, with a
youth-oriented message and an attempt to rekindle the fervor
of the Orange Revolution. The bloc consists of People's
Union Our Ukraine; the three parties in People's Self
Defense--the Christian Democrats, Forward Ukraine, and
European Party; the three parties in Pravitsya--Rukh, the
Ukrainian People's Party, and Sobor; Pora; and the Defenders
of the Motherland Party. President Yushchenko opened the
congress and bloc leader Yuriy Lutsenko closed it, with all
speakers emphasizing key themes: values of the Orange
Revolution, democracy, eliminating complete immunity for
parliamentarians, national unity, and no broad coalition.
The speeches were punctuated with rock acts reprising songs
from the Orange Revolution. The top of the party list
presents faces both young and new, with former Interior
Minister Lutsenko, Foreign Minister Yatsenyuk, and Defense
Minister Hrytsenko replacing elder statesmen like former PMs
Yuriy Yekhanurov and Anatoliy Kinakh (now on the Regions
list) and former FM Borys Tarasyuk as the face of the party.
Notably absent from the list was presidential confidant and
party financier Petro Poroshenko. Privately, several party
leaders confided to us that they were not completely happy
with the new bloc, particularly PSD deputy leader Mykola
Katerynchuk, who felt their interests were being subordinated
to People's Union Our Ukraine, the core party inside the
current Our Ukraine faction.


2. (C) Comment. The emphasis on democracy and eliminating
immunity for parliamentary deputies, the new youth-oriented
party list, and the Orange Revolution music sent a vibe that
this party was trying to pick up where it left off at the end
of 2004, but there wasn't much sizzle to the party. The
congress organizers handed out a detailed party platform, but
few speakers discussed the bloc's policy agenda, which could

in part be due to the widely varied economic and foreign
policy beliefs housed under this one shell. Despite OU
leader Kyrylenko's denial to Ambassador that Yushchenko would
actively campaign on OU-PSD's behalf, the President's
presence throughout the congress and the PSAs with Yushchenko
periodically shown throughout the event suggested the bloc is
hoping to ride the President's coattails as his ratings have
improved in the wake of the political crisis. Although the
congress went smoothly and quickly, private conversations
with Katerynchuk and Tarasyuk indicated to us that not all
members are equally pleased with the end product. In
addition, all leaders of the bloc strongly expressed
opposition to a broad coalition--both at the congress and to
us privately--suggesting that should President Yushchenko
choose that variant, as the administration has indicated it
might, this could cause some serious ruptures with the bloc.
End summary and comment.

Atmospherics: Recapturing the Orange Revolution
-------------- --


3. (C) As part of the effort to brand itself a young, dynamic
party upholding the spirit of the Maidan, the speeches were
alternated with rock bands, many of whom played the songs
they sang on the Maidan in 2004. Especially interesting was
an old UPA (Ukrainian Insurgent Army) song from the 1940s
reset to a rock beat, with practically the whole hall singing
along. (Note. In particular, we saw Lutsenko rocking out.
End note.) The emphasis on Yushchenko was also striking with
political ads shown periodically throughout the
congress--many just of Yushchenko speaking as President,
although one showed a number of leaders from various parties
and top people on list. Although the official name of the
bloc includes the names of all nine members, there were no
party flags displayed anywhere in the conference hall other
than those of Our Ukraine and People's Self-Defense. This
was the only one of the three major congresses, where we saw
them take the time to truly count the votes of the delegates
on issues like adopting the party list and platform--at one
point, the head of the counting commission interrupted the
program to announce a miscount of 15 votes, although it did
not change the outcome of anything.

Yushchenko's Speech: Unify Ukraine, Eliminate Corruption
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) The President gave the first speech of the day,
congratulating the nine parties on forming a united bloc and
calling it a step into the future. He said that personal
ambitions had destroyed the goals of the Orange Revolution

KYIV 00001971 002.2 OF 005


and they only had themselves to blame for that, but now was
the time to unite Ukraine. He also acknowledged the heavy
price that some of the individual parties had paid by joining
the bloc, rather than running on their own (a nod to the
discontent in the PSD and Pravitsya parties about the
election list),and thanked everyone for making the
sacrifice. Yushchenko also called for cooperation with BYuT.



5. (SBU) Yushchenko argued that Ukraine had plenty of social
and economic programs up for consideration, but what was
lacking was a program of unity--to that end, he proposed the
ideas of Ukrainian statehood, a single state language, and a
single Orthodox church. Specifically he thought that there
were three areas for improvement: intellectual potential of
Ukraine, through better education and money to the sciences;
democratic improvements, including a new constitution based
on a European model; and new economic and social standards in
compliance with Europe. He said it was hard for average
Ukrainians to understand that the country had experienced
economic growth since 2002 when the teachers and doctors get
paid so little. The majority coalition had promised to
improve the quality of life, but the real value of salaries
has dropped while utility and food prices were growing; TB
and AIDS may soon be epidemics in parts of Ukraine; there are
currently more books printed in Russian than in Ukrainian;
the latest privatizations have been nontransparent; and
recently there have been six major railroad accidents. Whose
interests does this government serve, he asked rhetorically?
Yushchenko said he had tried to work with the coalition, but
they grabbed power--the only way to stop them had been to
dissolve the parliament.


6. (SBU) Policywise, Yushchenko focused on revoking immunity
for parliamentary deputies--OU-PSD's centerpiece issue and
the subject of a presidential address to the nation on August

9. (Note. OU-PSD's program, "For the People, not
Politicians," was passed out at the beginning of the
congress, so few of the speakers spent much time going over
it. End note.) MPs should be in the Rada to make laws, not
hide from them, he argued. In addition to revoking immunity,
Yushchenko also proposed canceling other benefits for MPs and
state officials, which he said cost half a billion hryvnia a
year (approx 100 million USD). He also proposed forming a
national anti-corruption bureau. In terms of social
policies, Yushchenko enumerated the various proposals that
have been appearing on billboards all over Ukraine--higher
wages and pensions, unified tariffs, more money for families
with multiple children, more incentives and benefits for
teachers and doctors willing o work in rural areas, and
improved transportation networks in the countryside. He
ended his speech promising free, fair, and democratic
elections and asking people to please come and vote.


7. (C) Comment. Revoking immunity for parliamentary deputies
was clearly the theme of the day, as OU-PSD tried to set
itself up as the anti-corruption bloc. Almost every speaker
mentioned it and the slogan has been plastered on billboards
featuring a raised fist, see around the capital and
throughout the country. Whether this issue has resonance
with voters remains to be seen. End comment.

Other Speeches Echo Yushchenko's
--------------


8. (SBU) OU leader Kyrylenko, who was elected head of the
bloc's political committee, spoke next. He said that Ukraine
is facing a choice--to continue to move towards lawlessness
and confrontation or to return back to a path of justice,
freedom, and European values. The place to start, he said,
was by annulling immunity for parliamentary deputies.
Yanukovych's government protected people with "criminal
habits"--they promised low prices and high salaries, but had
delivered the opposite. Kyrylenko also firmly stated that
there will be no broad coalition with Regions, saying OU-PSD
will have "no deals with traitors". The bloc's goal is to
form a democratic coalition and government and allow the
President to initiate deep, systemic changes for Ukraine's
benefit. He also ran through some of the same social welfare
promises Yushchenko did.


9. (SBU) Foreign Minister Yatsenyuk said the bloc's key goal
was to create one united state, to end the talk of Western
and Eastern Ukraine. They would build relations with Russia
and the West and implement the changes that Ukraine needs,
but that have been postponed for so long. Defense Minister
Hrytsenko described the achievements that the Yushchenko
administration had made in modernizing the army. He also
spoke in favor of annulling immunity for parliamentary
deputies and of giving people hope for a better future. Rukh

KYIV 00001971 003.2 OF 005


leader and former FM Tarasyuk spoke briefly, but only to
announce Kyrylenko--who used to be a member of Rukh--as the
new leader of OU-PSD's political committee. A speech was
also given by Olesiya Orobets, the twenty-something daughter
of former MP Yuriy Orobets, who was killed in a car accident
in fall 2006. She called on the new generation of voters to
become politically active and support European values.

Lutsenko Closes Congress with Strong Speech to Quiet Applause
-------------- --------------


10. (SBU) Bloc leader Yuriy Lutsenko gave the closing speech
of the congress, calling on supporters to remember the Orange
Revolution and the victory they achieved in 2004. He said
that there was too much political corruption, there were too
many MPs who do not represent the interests of their
electorate, and that Yanukovych would never have become PM
for the second time if the Socialist Party had not sold out
its reputation for high values and anti-Kuchma fighters to
benefit Moroz's personal ambitions. The promise of immunity
for parliamentary deputies was like a magnet attracting mafia
to the Rada. He advocated for a national anti-corruption
bureau, an independent judiciary, and income declarations for
all civil servants. He praised Yushchenko as a strong and
decisive president who stood for democracy; in contrast,
Yanukovych stood for the continued status of Ukraine as a
Russian colony. He closed with a response to Yanukovych's
dig at the PSD fist logo (reftel),saying "the head is for
thinking, the heart is for love, and the hand is for
work--but an open hand (like in a handshake) is only good for
begging."


11. (C) Comment. Lutsenko spoke in his normal fiery delivery,
which was received with some applause, but not the bring down
the house clapping that Tymoshenko and Yanukovych received at
their congresses or that Lutsenko gets at his rallies. The
more subdued reaction to his impassioned, strongly
anti-Yanukovych speech may indicate that there remains some
discomfort among delegates from other parties with Lutsenko,
a former Socialist who does not share most of the policy
views of the more center-right parties, leading the bloc.
End comment.

European Speaks in Favor of Orange Forces
--------------


12. (C) Giving a speech that was in some ways more partisan
and startling than the Duma MP's speech at the Regions
congress, Wilfred Martens, President of the European People's
Party (EPP)--the party that houses conservative European
parties, like Angela Merkal's Christian Democrats, as well as
People's Union Our Ukraine and Rukh--said that Ukraine needs
the orange forces to reunite. He believed that the current
coalition had broken the goals of the Orange Revolution and
the unity of the country; moreover the formation of the
coalition was based on corruption. He said the EPP welcomed
Yushchenko's decision to call new elections, said Yushchenko
and Tymoshenko should work together, and wished them good
luck.

Who's Who on the List
--------------


13. (C) Not surprisingly, of all the party lists, OU-PSD's is
the most changed from 2006, to accommodate the new party
members and to reflect a new strategy to overcome the party's
electoral trouncing in the last election. The bloc has a
younger and newer slate of top ten politicians. None of the
top five--whose pictures will be displayed in polling
stations--were in OU's top five in 2006, and three of
them--Lutsenko, Yatsenyuk and Hrytsenko, are completely new
to the OU list. In addition, of the top ten on the list,
five are under 40 years old, while the other five are all
under 50. The list heavily favors PUOU and PSD, although
Rukh is fairly well-represented as well. Some of the other
parties, however, did not fare well. One Pora member told us
that they had been promised five spots in the top 100, but
had only been given one, for party leader Vladislav Kaskiv.
The list also has several people known to be personally close
to Presidential Chief of Staff Baloha, as well as the leader
of Ukraine's most popular rock band Okean Elzi, Svyatoslav
Vakarchuk (rumored to have replaced 2004 Eurovision winner
Ruslana who decided to go back to making music.)


14. (C) A striking change was the removal of several notable
"dear friends", including Petro Poroshenko, Mykola
Martynenko, and Vira Ulyachenko. When asked why they were
removed, Lutsenko explained to the press that the bloc was
listening to public requests for the list to be purged of
people with questionable reputations. Interestingly, when

KYIV 00001971 004.2 OF 005


asked why, in that case, Lutsenko had added former Kyiv mayor
Omelchenko, known for his corruption, to the list, Lutsenko
made references to needing to fight Kyiv mayor Chernovetskiy.
(Note. Rumors continue that Lutsenko has his eye on
becoming mayor of Kyiv, and he seems to calculate that
Omelchenko can aid him in that goal. In addition, there are
rumors that Poroshenko will be rewarded after the elections
with a senior appointment, such as Chair of the National
Bank--perhaps bolstered by current NBU Chair Stelmakh's
presence on the list. End note.)

Kyrylenko: The Orange Forces Are United and Will Win
-------------- --------------


15. (C) In a a July 25 conversation with Ambassador,
Kyrylenko was pleased that the megabloc had finally been
formed. He said that it was not easy to unite nine
parties--there were 30 contenders for the top 10 spots on the
list--but it was necessary. He was proud that OU was the
only political force that has NATO accession in its program.
The main task will be to provide for a transparent and
democratic election--it's the next step in democratic
development.


16. (C) According to Kyrylenko, PUOU is becoming more
consolidated--the most heated internal debates happened in
winter/early spring when deciding whether to unite in
opposition with BYuT and whether to resign from the Rada.
Now that those decisions have been made, there are fewer
debates inside PUOU on key issues. Kyrylenko said that
OU-PSD will compete with BYuT, but there will be no dirty
tactics. The two blocs already have agreed that whichever
bloc gets more votes will nominate the Prime Minister.
Interestingly, he told us that Yushchenko would not actively
campaign and the bloc had decided not to use his name. (Note.
Yushchenko's speech at the congress and the political ads
they showed would suggest otherwise. End note.)


17. (C) Kyrylenko said he supported a democratic coalition
after the election. A coalition with Regions would be
impossible because the OU-PSD agreement stipulated that there
can be no coalition with any member of ACC; besides there was
an OU-Regions government in the fall of 2006, but it was
unsuccessful. Either BYuT and OU will be together in the
coalition or in the opposition; he laughed at the idea of an
OU-BYuT-Regions coalition. He was speaking, he said, from
the majority position in OU, adding that pro-Tymoshenko
forces were now dominating the OU leadership.

Katerynchuk: Not all in Megabloc are Pleased
--------------


18. (C) MP Mykola Katerynchuk, former member of PUOU
leadership and current number 2 in PSD, was less enthusiastic
than Kyrylenko about the joining of their forces during an
August 1 conversation with Ambassador. He said that PSD had
basically been politically blackmailed into joining with OU.
The new election law, he explained, says that now only Rada
factions, not political parties, can nominate commissioners
to the polling stations and district election
commissions--without merging with OU, PSD would have no way
to monitor the voting. After Lutsenko's spring tour across
Ukraine, PSD's rating was six percent--he and financial
backer David Zhvaniya had strongly opposed a bloc with OU.
PSD had its own program and would have done better alone, he
contended. On the plus side, it was a pragmatic
consolidation of democratic forces that could stop the
Regions-Communists-Socialists, and they had agreed to put new
names on the list, not just the same old faces. (Embassy
Note. In 2006, as a member of the OU Executive Council,
Katerynchuk had pushed OU to run a campaign based on new
faces and personalities, but had lost the battle to the old
guard, led by Poroshenko, who centered the campaign on known
OU figures with disastrous results. End Note.)


19. (SBU) Katerynchuk said the OU-PSD campaign structure was
already set up and leaders were beginning to travel around
the country trying to build public trust through the campaign
to revoke immunity for parliamentary deputies. Then, the
bloc would introduce a more comprehensive platform based no
liberal reforms.


20. (C) Several media sources noted that Katerynchuk voted
against the OU-PSD party list at the August 7 congress,
reportedly because his two close allies were given low spots
on the list, even though PSD as whole did very well.
Katerynchuk complained to Ambassador that OU was ignoring his
input, not taking the proposed new tax code he had written
seriously and refusing to make political hay of the
Constitutional Court ruling--which Katerynchuk helped

KYIV 00001971 005.2 OF 005


write--that the Yanukovych government's budget was partially
unconstitutional; now Tymoshenko was claiming it was her
victory in the court. He also complained that OU leaders
were sitting in their offices while PSD was out campaigning.
He thought the bloc should be more radical and populist; OU
was getting lost between BYuT and Regions. Katerynchuk said
that some in OU are discussing the possibility of a broad
coalition, if Yanukovych is not the PM. PSD will never join
a coalition with Regions--but in the end, he feared, OU will
do whatever Yushchenko tells them to do. Katerynchuk was
also dismissive of the Pravitsya parties in the bloc, calling
them "political pensioners," whose time had passed.

Tarasyuk: Rukh Not Fully Happy, but Megabloc is Best Option
-------------- --------------


21. (C) In a July 31 meeting, Tarasyuk told Ambassador he was
skeptical about the megabloc becoming one political party
after the election, criticizing the presumption of
two-year-old People's Union Our Ukraine that older, historic
parties like Rukh would agree to dissolve themselves.
Tarasyuk said that he had concerns that Rukh members in the
regions would not be utilized in favor of staffing megabloc
regional headquarters with PUOU members. They had agreed
that Kyrylenko, as the head of the biggest party in the bloc,
should be the head of the bloc too, but that all parties
would have a voice in decisions. In terms of campaign
structure, party leaders would take responsibility for
different regions--Tarasyuk was responsible for Ternopil and
Ivano-Frankivsk, where Rukh support was strongest. Lutsenko
and PSD were responsible for attracting former Socialist
supporters. Tarasyuk also said that although OU-PSD would
mostly compete with BYuT for voters, the two orange blocs
should still form a government after the elections. After
his bitter experience as FM in the Yanukovych Cabinet, he
would never agree to a broad coalition--such a union would
split OU-PSD, although he also hinted that a coalition with
just part of Regions might be more possible.


22. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Pettit