UKRAINE: PRESIDENT AND PM REACH GENERAL AGREEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 001051

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: PRESIDENT AND PM REACH GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON EARLY ELECTIONS


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Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(a,b,d).


1. (SBU) Summary. President Yushchenko and Prime Minister
Yanukovych on May 4 finally reached a preliminary agreement
to hold early Rada elections, after more than a week when the
two leaders did not speak. At a press conference after the
meeting, Yushchenko announced that a working group would
begin work immediately to hammer out the details over two
days--and that a (new) presidential decree would set the date
in the context of agreements reached by the working group, in
roughly 60 days (subsequent speculation focused on July 8).
He also implied that the package deal would include
legislative work, possibly on imperative mandate, the CabMin
law, a new parliamentary election law, and budget amendments
to fund the election. Yanukovych provided similar details to
a pro-coalition demonstration on the Maidan, adding that
elections were the way out of the political crisis and would
happen in "the near future." Other signs of impending
compromise related to election preparations emerged over the
last 24 hours. The CEC has been moving to form the District
Election Commissions that will run the elections; on May 3
the Cabinet approved a budget allocation to fund a new state
voter registry system which would come into force on October
1, and on May 4, prior to announcement of the deal, the Rada
voted for the Cabinet to set aside funding for early
elections, although still insisting that they be concurrent
presidential and parliamentary votes.


2. (C) Comment: The agreement comes after a week of more
aggressive tactics on Yushchenko's part over a normally quiet
holiday weekend. Yushchenko dismissed two Constitutional
Court Judges appointed by Kuchma, but his decision May 4 to
nominate two former MPs from pro-Kuchma parties as
replacements appeared to send a signal of his willingness to
compromise. Yushchenko met with Regions' heavyweights
Bohatyreva and Akhmetov May 3, Deputy Presidential
Secretariat head Chaliy told Ambassador May 4, paving the way

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for the deal with Yanukovych. Chaliy suggested that Regions
might get the first chance to form a government (as the
presumed plurality winner),and that a broad post-election
coalition between Regions and Our Ukraine was possible. End
comment.

Agreement is Reached, But Devil is in the Details
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3. (SBU) Late in the afternoon May 4, Yushchenko announced
that he and Yanukovych had agreed that there would be early
elections. The next step would a working group to work out
the details over two days on the legislative and political
issues to be addressed before elections were held. The
working group includes: Deputy Head of the Secretariat
Vasyunyk, former Rada Speaker Plyushch, Tymoshenko, and OU
leader Kyrylenko for Yushchenko/opposition's side, and
Regions leader Bohatyreva, First Deputy Rada Speaker
Martynyuk, and other coalition members to be named later
representing Yanukovych/coalition. (Embassy Note: No
Socialist party members have yet been named to the Working
Group. Yushchenko mentioned at his press conference that he
didn't know what Moroz thought about the deal, but one
Socialist MP told the press that the Party of Regions had
betrayed them. End Note.) The working group's proposals
would then be considered May 7, with the Rada then meeting
for a one-day session on May 8 to hear the proposals,
allocate money for elections, and amend legislation on the
CabMin, imperative mandate, and other key issues.


4. (SBU) Yanukovych went straight from the meeting with the
President to address a 10,000 plus coalition rally on the
Maidan, where to cheering and dancing he announced the
agreement. Like Yushchenko, he did not offer much detail
beyond agreeing that elections were the best way out of the
political crisis and that the Ukrainian people should decide,
adding that Regions was confident of victory.


5. (C) Comment. Given how many questions still need to be
resolved, the working group faces a daunting task.
Yushchenko said that while the Rada can come back
temporarily, it will not come back into session full-time
because his April 26 decree canceling parliament's authority
remained in force. The President was also vague when asked
by journalists about the ongoing Constitutional Court reviews
of his decree. People's Self-Defense Leader Lutsenko
floated the idea of a July 8 election, which could be logical
if the coalition and opposition agree on the working group's
proposals on May 7-8. End comment.

Chaliy Provides Detail
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6. (C) Deputy Head of the Presidential Secretariat Chaliy
offered some interesting prognoses on how the compromise
might play out to Ambassador May 4. He said that Yushchenko
had met May 3 with Regions' heavyweights Akhmetov and
Bohatyreva separately in preparation for the meeting with
Yanukovych. Yushchenko also sat down with Tymoshenko and
Kyrylenko May 4 prior to meeting Yanukovych. Chaliy said
they are flexible on the date for the elections. Chaliy also
suggested that one proposal was that the party that wins the
plurality will have the first shot at forming a coalition,
and that a broad coalition, with at least Our Ukraine and
Regions, was a real possibility after the elections. He also
suggested that if that scenario came to pass, they would
offer Tymoshenko the Rada Speaker position - a proposal first
broached publicly in mid-April by influential journalist
Yuliya Mostova and privately by her husband, Defense Minister
Hrytsenko, to Ambassador.

Yushchenko's Surprise Court Nominees
--------------


7. (SBU) In the political machinations surrounding the
compromise, Yushchenko unexpectedly announced May 3 and 4,
respectively, that his nominees to take the two spots on the
Constitutional Court vacated by recently fired Judges Stanik
and Pshenychniy were two lawyers -- both without "orange"
credentials and both previously associated with President
Kuchma. His first nominee was former MP and lawyer Stepan
Havrysh-a loyal Kuchma supporter who played a role in getting
constitutional reform pushed forward, defended Yanukovyh in
front of the Supreme Court in December 2004, and ran for the
Rada on Medvedchuk's Ne Tak! bloc in 2006. The second
nominee, lawyer Vasyl Kostyskiy, is also a former Rada
member, who has been in a number of pro-Kuchma parties and
served as deputy Finance Minister in 2004 under current DPM
and Regions' heavyweight Azarov. Havrysh on May 4 expressed
surprise at his nomination.


8. (C) Comment. Yushchenko may have selected judges from
outside the orange camp as a sign of willingness to
compromise. The two nominees cannot take their seats on the
CC until the Rada administers the oath of office, meaning
that either the nominations will not move forward until after
new elections or they will be part of a political compromise
for the temporary Rada session. Opinion on Havrysh's
qualifications are mixed, but he has extensive legal
experience; Kostyskiy seems less qualified. Both have
histories of being more political animals than legal
professionals. Just as bringing Piskun back as
Prosecutor-General was a choice of the slightly lesser evil,
Yushchenko could end up with two new judges that are only
slightly better than the ones he just dismissed. End comment.

Bio Notes: New Judges Are Mixed Bag
--------------

9 (C) Stepan Havrysh, whose specialty is criminal law, was
nominated to be a CC judge by Regions in 2005, but he
declined the nomination. He is currently a member of the
High Council of Justice, a powerful body within the judicial
system that plays a role in monitoring and punishing judges.
Some commentators have described him as chameleon-like, while
others praised him as reasonable. In his eight years in the
Rada, he served in several pro-presidential factions,
including the Regions predecessor. He was Deputy Rada
Speaker from 2000-2002. Since the Orange Revolution Havrysh
has publicly portrayed himself as a centrist and has said he
was searching for peace and consolidation between Blue and
Orange. In a 2006 press interview, he praised Regions
financier Akhmetov and the positive role big business could
play in Ukrainian politics and talked about closed-door
negotiations between the oligarch and Yushchenko. His
daughter was elected as a local council member in Kharkiv on
the BYuT ticket.


10. (C) Vasyl Kostyskiy, who hails from Ivano-Frankisvk, has
worked as a deputy Finance Minister, deputy Minister of
Environment, first deputy head of the State Judicial
Administration, and as an adviser to then President Kuchma.
His older brother, Mykhaylo, served as a CC judge and had a
self-acknowledged reputation for letting politics influence
his judicial opinions.

Small Steps Towards Elections Continue
--------------


11. (SBU) Yushchenko also met with CEC Chair Davydovych late
on May 3 to get an update on election preparations. Press
reports indicate that Davydovych said that the postponement
of the elections until June 24 had increased the CEC's

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ability to successfully prepare for the vote. He also said
that formation of the District Election Commissions (DECs)
remained a problem. (Note. All five parties currently
sitting in the Rada are supposed to submit nominees to serve
as election commissioners. The deadline was midnight May 3,
but the three coalition parties did not comply, and
Davydovych announced an extension for nominations late on May

4. If the election date is changed again as expected, the
timetable for all preparations will also change. End note.)
Yushchenko had a meeting scheduled for late May 4 to discuss
elections with Ukraine's governors; the governors were then
scheduled to sit down with the CEC.


12. (SBU) Small steps towards providing financing for a
possible election were also taken. The Rada passed a
resolution calling on the CabMin to take steps to finance
early elections, although they stuck to their caveat that the
elections would be concurrent presidential and parliamentary
votes. The CabMin also allocated UAH 125 million to
establish a voter registry list; the sum was almost 50
million UAH more than the CEC asked for suggesting that there
could be additional money that could be used for other
aspects of an election. (Note. The voter registry list is a
positive step for conducting transparent and fair elections,
but is not scheduled to come into force until October 1. End
note.)


13. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor