INFLUENTIAL AL-SABAH PREDICTS CONSTITUTIONAL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 000882

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP, INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2022
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: INFLUENTIAL AL-SABAH PREDICTS CONSTITUTIONAL
DISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT WITHIN ONE MONTH

REF: A. KUWAIT 836

B. KUWAIT 566

C. KUWAIT 522

D. KUWAIT 430

E. KUWAIT 317

F. 06 KUWAIT 4498

G. 06 KUWAIT 4430

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S/NF) Summary and comment. An influential, younger
Shaykh in the inner circle of the ruling family told the
Ambassador June 4 that there was a "90% chance" the Amir
would dissolve Parliament within a month and call for end of
summer elections. Shaykh Mohammed Al-Abdullah Al-Mubarak
Al-Sabah believed most Kuwaitis would support the move. He
predicted opposition MPs, who won a parliamentary majority in
last summer's elections, would make further gains. By making
MPs spend considerable money on their re-election campaigns,
Shaykh Mohammed said the dissolution would send a signal that
the Amir would not tolerate bickering at the expense of
development in the country. He was nonetheless skeptical
that the new Parliament would differ significantly from the
current one and predicted another constitutional dissolution
next summer. Shaykh Mohammed said regional circumstances and
the possible U.S. reaction were not factors in the
leadership's thinking on dissolution. While focusing his
criticism on Parliament, Shaykh Mohammed also lamented the
lack of strong leadership within the ruling family and said
he could foresee a Prime Minister from outside the Al-Sabah
family being appointed in the next three to five years.
These political developments could affect the Amir's planned
private travel to the U.S. this summer.


2. (S/NF) Comment: While appearing increasingly likely, the
dissolution of Parliament could be prevented, at least for
the time being, by the resignation or replacement of Oil
Minister Shaykh Ali Al-Jarrah Al-Sabah, who opposition MPs
are threatening to "grill" for comments he made in support of
another senior ruling family member accused of embezzlement.
If this happens, he would be the third minister forced out of
the Cabinet in the last seven months by MPs from the three
opposition blocs. Rather than resolving tensions, this would
likely merely embolden opposition MPs to go after other
ministers. Complicating the issue is the fact that some
opposition groups stand to gain from elections under the new
electoral system adopted last summer and may, therefore, be
intentionally stoking tensions with the Government in the
hope of provoking a dissolution. Some members of the ruling
family are rumored to be doing the same thing through
loyalists in Parliament in an attempt to discredit the
institution and gain popular support for an unconstitutional
dissolution. In this context, a compromise solution is
unlikely, suggesting it is going to be a long, hot summer in
Kuwait. We see no serious consequences for U.S. interests
emerging in the short term from the Kuwaitis' domestic
political problems, particularly regarding key foreign and
security policy issues. End summary and comment.


3. (S/NF) An influential member of the ruling family told
the Ambassador June 4 that there was a "90% chance"
Parliament would be dissolved shortly after the expected
"grilling" of Oil Minister Shaykh Ali Al-Jarrah Al-Sabah on
June 25 and new elections held in late-August or
early-September. Shaykh Mohammed Al-Abdullah Al-Mubarak
Al-Sabah (36),who wields considerable influence by virtue of
his lineage - he is the elder of two surviving grandsons of
Mubarak Al-Kabir, the founder of modern Kuwait - and close
relations with the Amir and other senior members of the
ruling family, said the Al-Sabah leadership is fed up with
the political deadlock and lack of progress in the country,
problems it blames on constant opposition from Parliament.
"The Amir has given (opposition MPs) every possible chance
for adult discourse," he said. "Unfortunately, we haven't
found that on the other side." Having publicly ruled out an
unconstitutional dissolution earlier this year (ref B) and
formed a new Cabinet in March (ref D),the Amir now hopes to
resolve tensions between the Government and Parliament by
holding elections under the new five constituency electoral
system adopted last summer, which some observers argue will
yield more qualified, less parochial MPs, Shaykh Mohammed
said.


4. (S/NF) Shaykh Mohammed believed the move would be
supported by most Kuwaitis, who are increasingly frustrated
with Parliament and disillusioned with the results of last
year's elections, which many believed would usher in an era
of reform and progress. He was skeptical, however, that the
new Parliament would differ significantly from the current

KUWAIT 00000882 002 OF 003


one either in terms of its composition or its attitude
towards the Government. He predicted opposition MPs would
make further gains in the elections, using the dissolution as
proof that "corrupt" members of the ruling family were trying
to prevent the investigation and prosecution of former
Minister of Oil and Minister of Finance Shaykh Ali Al-Khalifa
Al-Sabah on charges of embezzling more than $100 million
during the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait. In particular, Shaykh
Mohammed believed more "populists," liberals, and independent
Islamists and fewer pro-Government independents would be
elected, making it difficult for Jassem Al-Khorafi to be
re-elected as Speaker and perhaps opening the way for veteran
opposition MP Ahmed Al-Saadoun to regain the speakership. He
predicted the women's vote would again benefit tribal and
Islamist candidates, and vote-buying would still be
prevalent, though cheaper: 250-300KD ($865-$1,040) per vote
rather than 1000KD ($3,470) as in past elections.


5. (S/NF) While officially the head of the Citizens'
Services Agency and the Government Assessment Body, Shaykh
Mohammed said he was also responsible for negotiating with
MPs and political groups "to see what sort of favors we (the
ruling family) can give them in return for their support on
particular issues." In this unofficial capacity, he met with
the majority of MPs over the past week to discuss the Oil
Minister grilling and reported that they were "very scared"
about shouldering the costs of another election, particularly
in the summer when air conditioning usage and costs soar (air
conditioning an election tent when it's 110 degrees in the
shade isn't cheap). Shaykh Mohammed said political groups,
even the highly-organized Islamic Constitutional Movement
(ICM),were uncertain how to campaign in the new, larger
electoral districts and that part of the strategy in holding
early elections was to prevent them from getting sufficiently
prepared. The elections would also give observers a chance
to see how the new system works in order to better prepare
for the next elections.


6. (S/NF) Shaykh Mohammed Al-Abdullah said some members of
the ruling family, implicitly including himself, supported an
unconstitutional dissolution - suspending Parliament for two
to three years in order to move stalled legislation - but
that this was unlikely to happen in the current political
context. Instead, he predicted continued tensions with
Parliament would result in another constitutional dissolution
next summer, particularly if the next Cabinet, like the last
one, was chosen primarily to accommodate the various
political blocs in Parliament. Shaykh Mohammed complained
that this strategy had only resulted in bringing the disputes
between the blocs into the Government. He believed the
catalyst for the second dissolution would be an agreement
between one of the opposition blocs in the new Parliament and
the Government to pass the controversial
Build-Operate-Transfer law, which would lead MP Ahmed
Al-Saadoun to grill either the Finance Minister or the Prime
Minister, provoking the dissolution. According to him, the
rationale behind the dissolutions was to force MPs to spend
considerable amounts of their personal wealth getting
re-elected and demonstrate that the Amir would not tolerate
their constant attacks on the Government at the expense of
development.


7. (S/NF) When asked, Shaykh Mohammed said regional tensions
had "zero impact" on the leadership's calculus on whether or
not to dissolve Parliament. He explained that, based on the
experience of the Iraqi invasion, the ruling family believed
Kuwaitis would remain united even if the U.S. attacked Iran,
Iran attacked Kuwait, or a civil war broke out in Lebanon.
Although most Kuwaitis believe the Amir would not dare
dissolve Parliament unless he received a "green light" from
the U.S., Shaykh Mohammed said this was obviously not the
case and "no one in the leadership has mentioned this as a
factor at all." His assessment was that Kuwait was not
important enough to the U.S. for the Administration to get
involved in such internal matters, particularly when the
ruling family would never resort to "heavy-handed tactics"
and the majority of Kuwaitis would support a dissolution.
"As long as we don't use tear gas or take political
prisoners, you will not intervene," he argued. The
Ambassador said he did not wish to offer any comment based on
hypotheticals, but cautioned against making assumptions about
the USG reaction in the event of an unconstitutional
dissolution.


8. (S/NF) While focusing his criticism on the Parliament,
Shaykh Mohammed also lamented the absence of strong
leadership within the ruling family, which he argued was the
ultimate source of the political problems facing the country.
He complained, for example, that if the Parliament was

KUWAIT 00000882 003 OF 003


dissolved the current leadership would be unwilling to pass
long-stalled legislation by Amiri decree during the
dissolution period, which would put the onus on the new
Parliament to overturn it. Such strong decision-making and
leadership was critically lacking, he argued. Shaykh
Mohammed said the Prime Minister was "not doing a good job of
playing the groups off each other" and predicted that in
three to five years time, Kuwait could well have a Prime
Minister who is not from the Al-Sabah family.

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For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
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LeBaron