INCREASING PESSIMISM ABOUT NEW CABINET, LEADERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000447

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2022
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KU NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
SUBJECT: INCREASING PESSIMISM ABOUT NEW CABINET, LEADERSHIP

REF: KUWAIT 430

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Reactions to the new Cabinet have been
muted, an indication of Kuwaitis' frustration with the
political leadership in both the government and Parliament.
Few Kuwaitis expect the new Cabinet to resolve the tensions
that characterized the previous government's relations with
Parliament, though some are mildly hopeful their skepticism
is proven wrong. Some contacts predict this government is
just a temporary solution to allow the ruling family time to
prepare for new parliamentary elections later this year in
the hope that the new five constituency electoral system will
yield better results. End summary.

Gloomy View of New Cabinet
--------------


2. (C) Kuwaitis initially greeted the announcement of the
new Cabinet on March 25 with cautious optimism, hoping the
new lineup would assuage opposition parliamentarians and help
resolve the tensions that have plagued government-Parliament
relations since the elections last June (reftel). However,
after a few days of reflection, many Kuwaitis are now
expressing more pessimistic views. Members of a prominent
Shi'a business family, including two former MPs and a former
Oil Minister, were dismissive of the new government when
asked their opinions by the Ambassador during a visit to
their diwaniya. Several businessmen and a Kuwait University
professor were also decidedly unenthusiastic about the new
Cabinet and told EconChief that in spite of the new faces, it
still reflected an "old mentality." While encouraged by the
inclusion of two women, all three were impatient for change
and a clearer sense of "direction" for the country, which
they did not see represented in the new line-up. In a
conversation with PolChief, Shi'a MP Hassan Jowhar expressed
doubt about how long the new government would last, noting
that some MPs had already threatened to bring members of the
new Cabinet before Parliament for questioning, a
constitutional procedure commonly referred to here as
"grilling." He also speculated that the U.S. had given the
Amir a "green light" to dissolve the Parliament again.


3. (C) An Islamist lawyer told PolOff that he had expected
to see more new faces and that even those who were removed
were given positions as advisors so they could continue to
work from "in the shadows." He found it hard to believe that
the ICM had accepted the new water and electricity portfolio,
given that shortages in both are guaranteed this coming
summer. He wondered whether it was a "trap" to hurt the
Islamists or whether the ICM was just so desperate to join
the cabinet that they were willing to accept anything. While
the Education Minister has come under attack for being too
liberal, one embassy contact who is intensively engaged in
education policy issues said the new minister lacked vision
and would not work for major policy reform. Others, however,
contended that she was a capable education administrator who
should be given a chance to succeed.

Cabinet Too Liberal?
--------------


4. (C) Despite the inclusion of a senior member of the
Islamic Constitutional Movement (ICM),the Kuwaiti Muslim
Brotherhood's political wing, and one of the founding members
of the Revival of Islamic Heritage Society (RIHS),a
Kuwait-based Islamic charity, some Islamists have complained
that the new Cabinet is "too liberal." In a March 27
editorial in Al-Watan (local Arabic daily),former Salafi MP
Fahd Al-Khanna claimed "the new government groups a lot of
liberals of Western tendencies" and called on Islamists "to
resign their ministerial posts." He added: "All ministerial
posts must be awarded to the liberals and let (them) be held
accountable for the mistakes of the new government, given the
fact that (it) is doomed to failure." Another Salafi told
Political Specialist that the government "(did) not meet the
ambitions of Islamists" and, despite the Prime Minister's
extensive consultations, "failed to appease all parties." MP
Mishari Al-Anjari, on the other hand, a member of the liberal
National Action Bloc in Parliament, was upbeat about the
Cabinet, saying it was non-confrontational and would receive
more cooperation from Parliament. Many analysts agree that
the composition was designed specifically to avoid
confrontation. One told the Ambassador that the new
Information Minister was chosen from the Awazim tribe because
seven MPs are from that tribe.

Controversies on the Horizon
--------------


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5. (C) Rumblings of future clashes between the government
and Parliament have already begun. Independent Islamist MP
Daifallah Bouramia has threatened to "grill" Minister of
Finance Bader Al-Humaidhi, and Salafi MP Ahmed Baqer has
continued his criticism of Dr. Abdullah Al-Maatouq, the
Minister of Justice and the Minister of Religious Affairs.
In a conversation with Political Specialist, Kuwait
University Professor Dr. Ayed Al-Mana asked rhetorically,
"Where is the logic in appointing a guy like Al-Muhailbi as
Information Minister or replacing Dr. Adel Al-Tabtabaei with
Nouriya Al-Sabih, with whom he is on bad terms?" Al-Mana
said this was "not encouraging at all" and predicted the
likelihood of future clashes. Some have also pointed out
that ideological differences between ministers could lead to
divisions within the Cabinet itself.

Hope for New Elections
--------------


6. (C) Dr. Abdullah Sahar, a Shi'a political science
professor at Kuwait University, told PolOff this Cabinet was
a short-term solution to political tensions, and predicted
the Amir would dissolve Parliament and call new elections
later this year. He believed the new five constituency
electoral system would result in "more rational," better
qualified MPs with broad appeal across sectarian,
ideological, and tribal lines. Sahar claimed this would
"reduce gaps between political blocs" in Parliament and lead
to a more stable and efficient government capable of
implementing a clear development program. ICM member Dr.
Hamad Al-Matar agreed, arguing that the "government will not
last long" and predicting that the Kuwaiti leadership would
"experiment with elections under the five constituency
system." However, most agree that such a development would
likely come in the fall, after the long summer break.
(Perhaps ministers can focus on their jobs in the interim.)

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For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
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LeBaron