MIXED REVIEWS ON SHAYKH SABAH'S FIRST YEAR AS AMIR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 000172

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS FOR WALLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: MIXED REVIEWS ON SHAYKH SABAH'S FIRST YEAR AS AMIR

REF: A. KUWAIT 56 - PARLIAMENT TO GRILL RULING FAMILY
MINISTER

B. KUWAIT 32 - OPPOSITION ALLIANCE CRACKS

C. 06 KUWAIT 4665 - INFORMATION MINISTER RESIGNS

D. 06 KUWAIT 4430 - RUMBLINGS OF ANOTHER DISSOLUTION

E. 06 KUWAIT 2971 - PARLIAMENT APPROVES FIVE
DISTRICTS

F. 06 KUWAIT 1529 - COURT REVOKES FREEDOM
RESTRICTING GATHERINGS LAW

G. 06 KUWAIT 768 - PARLIAMENT PASSES NEW PRESS AND
PUBLICATIONS LAW

H. 06 KUWAIT 259 - EXPECTED SUCCESSION TIMELINE

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Matt Tueller for reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C/NF) Summary: January 29 marked Shaykh Sabah's first
anniversary as Amir. He has presided over an historic year
during which Kuwait experienced several significant
developments, including the constitutional dissolution of
Parliament and new elections in which women participated both
as voters and candidates for the first time in Kuwait's
history. However, changes over the past year have been
driven primarily by pro-reform, opposition elements, not the
Al-Sabah leadership. The Government poorly handled several
confrontations with Parliament, which it ultimately lost,
tarnishing its reputation and emboldening opposition
elements. In addition, the ruling family's reputation was
sullied when its internal conflicts were aired publicly
during last January's succession crisis, and members of the
Al-Sabah family were the target of harsh criticism during the
election campaigns last June. There is a prevailing sense
here that Kuwait is falling behind other Gulf countries,
something most Kuwaitis blame on their leadership for failing
to wisely invest the country's oil revenues, stem rampant
corruption, implement much-needed reforms, and outline a
clear vision for the country's future. Some, however, argue
that Parliament is at fault and suggest privately that an
unconstitutional dissolution would free the Government to
address the country's problems. Despite their criticisms,
few Kuwaitis openly advocate any major change in the
Al-Sabah's leadership role in the country. Shaykh Sabah's
challenge now is clear: to present a broadly appealing vision
for Kuwait's future and sell it to an increasingly assertive
and uncooperative Parliament while at the same time
navigating through regional tensions. End summary.


2. (C/NF) January 29 marked the first anniversary of Shaykh
Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah's ascension to the emirate.
Although media reports on the occasion were predictably
laudatory, in private Kuwaitis expressed mixed opinions about
his performance. While praising Kuwait's current economic
prosperity, driven largely by high oil prices, they
criticized the leadership for failing to use these resources
wisely, curb rampant government corruption, institute
much-needed administrative reforms, and outline a clear
vision for the country's future. As one prominent liberal
remarked to Poloffs, "There is someone driving, but they are
careening all over the road."

A Year of Rapid Change, Mounting Frustration
--------------


3. (C/NF) It has been an historic year in Kuwait. In
January 2006, former Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah became Amir
after a two-week long succession controversy between the two
main branches of the Al-Sabah family: the Al-Jabers and the
Al-Salems, which have traditionally alternated in holding the
country's top leadership position. When then Crown Prince
Shaykh Saad (Al-Salem),who was seriously ill, refused to
abdicate, Shaykh Sabah (Al-Jaber) took the issue to
Parliament, which per constitutional procedures voted that
Shaykh Saad was medically incapable of holding the position
of Amir. On becoming Amir, Shaykh Sabah further marginalized
the Al-Salem branch by appointing his half-brother Shaykh
Nawaf as Crown Prince and his nephew Shaykh Nasser Mohammed
as Prime Minister, giving the Al-Jaber branch control of the
country's top three posts for the first time in Kuwait's
history. While the controversy was resolved peacefully, it
seriously tarnished the reputation of the ruling family whose
usually private internal rifts were starkly exposed in public.


4. (C/NF) Many Kuwaitis were hopeful Shaykh Sabah would
usher in much-needed reforms. Parliament's passage of a new
press and publications law in March and the Constitutional
Court's revocation of a law restricting public gatherings in
May were seen as positive steps in this direction. Buoyed by
these developments, pro-reform parliamentarians and activists
began demanding electoral reforms to reduce corruption and
ruling family meddling in elections. The Government handled
this challenge poorly, changing its position on the issue

KUWAIT 00000172 002 OF 003


several times before finally referring its own draft
electoral reform bill to the Constitutional Court. This
mismanagement drove disparate opposition elements together
and added fuel to the popular drive for electoral reform.
When forced to make a decision, the Amir exercised his
constitutional right to dissolve Parliament and called for
new elections in June. Observers noted wryly that this was
his Parliament: the one he ran as Prime Minister from 2003 to
2006 and the one that nominally handed him the position of
Amir.


5. (C/NF) The elections saw unprecedented criticism of the
ruling family and resulted in a sweeping victory for
pro-reform, opposition candidates. The pro-Government bloc
in Parliament shrunk from 18 to 12 MPs, despite the ruling
family's widely alleged efforts to manipulate the outcome of
the elections. As a result, the Prime Minister was forced to
exclude two controversial ministers, including the Amir's
nephew, Shaykh Ahmed Al-Fahd, from the new Cabinet and
support the passage of the electoral reform legislation the
Government originally opposed, two major victories for
pro-reform parliamentarians. This made the Government look
weak and incompetent, and emboldened opposition groups, who
became more assertive in Parliament. A loose alliance of
opposition MPs formed a majority in Parliament, making it
difficult for the Government to pass legislation it
introduced. With the opposition alliance now fracturing,
Kuwaitis have increasingly blamed both the Government and
Parliament for this political deadlock.


6. (C/NF) In November, rumors surfaced that the Amir had
openly discussed dissolving Parliament unconstitutionally for
a period of up to three years, an indication of the
leadership's frustration with the lack of political
cooperation. Opposition parliamentarians backed down some,
but not much: one month later they forced the Minister of
Information to resign rather than undergo an intense
parliamentary questioning session, a constitutional measure
commonly referred to here as a "grilling." Several
opposition MPs are now planning to grill the Amir's nephew,
the Minister of Health, and even more grillings are
threatened. One Kuwaiti political observer told Poloff that
some ruling family members, particularly from the Al-Salem
branch, were behind these grillings and were using them as a
way of getting back at Shaykh Sabah. At the very least, the
constant threats of grillings are distracting the Government
from other, more important issues.


7. (C/NF) In this context, a few liberal contacts have
suggested that an unconstitutional dissolution might be
exactly what the country needs and the only way to break the
current political impasse. Recent front-page editorials in
two leading newspapers seemed to imply as much. While
admitting that an unconstitutional dissolution would be
unpopular, those supporting such a step claim the Amir would
be given a year-long grace period in which to implement
reforms. They acknowledge, however, that an unconstitutional
dissolution would only improve the situation if - and it is a
big if - the Government can deliver on much-needed reforms,
something it has so far failed to do.

Where Are We Going?
--------------


8. (C/NF) Kuwaitis' main criticism of the Amir, expressed in
private, is that he has so far failed to outline a clear
vision for the country's future. While Kuwait's economy
continues to be buoyed by strong oil revenues, Kuwaitis feel
vulnerable to regional security pressures, and often have the
sense that Kuwait is falling behind other Gulf countries.
Kuwaitis largely blame these problems on the Government's
failure to take serious steps to address rampant corruption
and implement much-needed institutional and administrative
reforms to increase transparency and efficiency in providing
government services. These failures, coupled with the
Government's mismanagement of several political crises, have
opened the door for opposition elements, most notably
Islamists, to step in and outline their own vision for Kuwait
that addresses these issues in some ways. Some Kuwaitis are
starting to argue more vocally for the legalization of
political parties and for Parliament to be allowed to choose
the Prime Minister, reforms which could impinge on the
Al-Sabah's leadership role in Kuwait. It is important to
note, though, that few, if any, Kuwaitis support a major
change in the Al-Sabah's leadership role and their criticism
is directed primarily at the Al-Sabah's mismanagement of the
country's resources.


9. (C/NF) Shaykh Sabah's challenge now is to outline and
implement a broadly appealing strategy for the country and

KUWAIT 00000172 003 OF 003


sell it to an increasingly assertive and uncooperative
Parliament while at the same time navigating through regional
tensions. In an address to Parliament on January 29, the
Amir called on Kuwaitis to avoid sectarianism, work as a
team, and practice "good citizenship." He also expressed his
desire to improve the educational system and transform Kuwait
into "a distinguished regional financial center," but did not
explain how he hoped to achieve these goals. If the Amir
does lay out a clear vision and moves to reign in government
excesses, most parliamentarians and political groups are
likely to lend their support to him. Kuwait's society is
fundamentally conservative, and the majority of Kuwaitis
understand the connection between stability and the
extraordinary economic success they have enjoyed. Above all
else, our contacts stress, Kuwaitis want a steady hand at the
wheel.

********************************************* *
For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
********************************************* *
TUELLER