PAS AND UMNO EYE KELANTAN ELECTION; KEDAH AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000352

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM KISL MY
SUBJECT: PAS AND UMNO EYE KELANTAN ELECTION; KEDAH AND
PERLIS PINE FOR MAHATHIR

REF: KUALA LUMPUR 153 - ANWAR ATTACKS NAJIB

Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MARK D. CLARK, REASON 1.4 (B AND
D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) The Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) and the United
Malays National Organization (UMNO) in PAS-controlled
Kelantan state are positioning themselves for a tough fight
in the next national election. During polchief's February
5-9 visit to the northern Malaysian states, PAS leaders in
Kelantan did not take their continued control of Kelatan for
granted and, with Anwar Ibrahim's help, intended to campaign
on a platform of clean governance that would exploit
corruption scandals and the Altantuya murder case to hit at
UMNO and Deputy Prime Minister Najib. UMNO leaders told us
they had shifted their strategy away from punishing voters in
Kelantan (the only state in opposition hands) and toward
positive engagement through federal development funding. We
encountered strong pro-Mahathir sentiment among senior UMNO
and police officials in the states of Kedah and Perlis,
Mahathir's home turf. PAS spoke glowingly of Anwar Ibrahim
as a political asset, while UMNO leaders described Anwar as a
spent force. End Summary.

Kelantan - PAS Works to Hold the Last Opposition State
-------------- --------------


2. (C) During our early February visit to Kelantan, the only
Malaysian state in the hands of an opposition party, we found
both PAS and UMNO leaders expecting a serious fight in the
next national election. With PAS holding power by a margin
of only one state assembly seat, PAS politicians were not
taking their continued rule for granted. Wan Rahim, a
veteran PAS leader and the State Assembly Speaker, was on
balance optimistic of a PAS win, though he and other voiced
concern over UMNO manipulation of the electoral process. Wan
Rahim noted with satisfaction that a new generation was
assuming leadership in PAS and in the state government,
naming in particular State Executive Council member Husam
Musa (see below). New, dynamic leaders could attract the
critical youth vote. To generate votes, PAS was also
introducing some new social programs in Kelantan, such as an
insurance scheme for persons over 60. In another attempt to
attract public support, we heard that the PAS government was
attempting to arrange a musical performance by Yusuf Islam,
aka Cat Stevens. While not mentioned by PAS leaders, others
described PAS decisions to re-open pool halls and single-sex
night clubs as attempts to appeal to the youth.


3. (C) Good governance and anti-corruption would be major
campaign themes, according to Wan Rahim and other PAS
leaders. PAS intended to highlight kick-back scandals
reportedly involving Deputy Prime Minister Najib and the
Altantuya murder case, also allegedly linked to Najib, in
order to paint the UMNO-led government as corrupt and morally
bankrupt (a tactic we heard also from PAS leaders in Kuala
Lumpur and Kedah state). According to others, PAS together
with Anwar Ibrahim's Keadilan Party had already started to
use this campaign tactic in the "ceramah" (Muslim sermon)
circuit.


4. (C) In a conversation that failed to show his engaging
and charismatic side, up-and-coming PAS leader Husam Musa,
who acts as the state's de facto deputy Chief Minister, told
polchief he was uncertain if PAS could remain in power. "The
Malays like Pak Lah (Prime Minister Abdullah) and, in keeping
with the Malay nature, they are comfortable with the slow
pace he has set for the country and the economy," Husam noted
with deadpan sarcasm. A continued liability for PAS was its
inability to work with the ethnic Chinese due to PAS's
intention of "driving the Chinese out of Malaysia," he
explained with equal insincerity.


5. (C) A well-connected Malaysian journalist resident in
Kelantan told us that neither side was taking any chances in
the coming election, particularly not PAS. The state PAS
leadership had been constantly monitoring the electoral list
in all districts and "moving" voters from PAS strongholds to
areas that the Islamic party won or lost by a narrow majority.


6. (C) Former UMNO politician and current PAS ally Ibrahim
Ali described UMNO's prospects for capturing the state as
"dim" due to lack of credible party leadership in the state.

KUALA LUMP 00000352 002 OF 003


He described the UMNO Liaison Chief in Kelantan, Anuar Musa
(see below),as "extremely unpopular" because of Anuar's
reputation for corruption and immoral behavior. Ibrahim Ali
stated that UMNO might replace Anuar Musa with someone from
Kuala Lumpur in order to revamp the state party machinery
before the general election. He hoped, however, that PM
Abdullah would not remove Anuar Musa as "he is the perfect
UMNO leader that would ensure PAS retains the state."

UMNO Switches from Stick to Carrot
--------------


7. (C) Anuar Musa, UMNO's senior party leader in Kelantan,
painted a different picture of UMNO's prospects. He argued
that voter sentiment had begun to swing against PAS, as
signaled by PAS' defeat in a by-election in December 2005.
People in Kelantan were "fed up" with the ineffective PAS
government that "used poverty among the people to maintain
its hold in the state" rather than working for development.
Nevertheless, the election would be hotly contested and UMNO
needed to shift into campaign mode now. Anuar added that
UMNO had switched its strategy in the state from "punishing
the state for voting for the opposition" to providing
development assistance to show "UMNO's sincerity in helping
the Malays in the poorest state in the Peninsula." He added
that this was one of the reasons why the Federal Government
allocated RM 7.6 billion to Kelantan under the Nineth
Malaysian Plan. In addition, the state UMNO leaders would
request an additional RM 100 million from the Prime Minister
for poverty eradication projects. On the other hand, the PAS
state government's newly announced insurance plan represented
a "blatant misuse of the state's funds" for political
purposes and would be subject to corruption, Anuar stated
without betraying any sense of irony.

Kedah and Perlis - Mahathir Still Looms Large
--------------


8. (C) Polchief encountered strong pro-Mahathir sentiment
coupled with stinging criticism of PM Abdullah among senior
UMNO and police officials in Kedah and Perlis states,
considered Mahathir's home turf. UMNO Kedah cabinet minister
and national UMNO Youth Information Chief Azimi Daim stated,
"the former PM still has a lot of followers at the grassroots
in Kedah" due to the rapid economic development which took
place under Mahathir. In contrast, Kedah's economic growth
under Abdullah had been sluggish and medium and small-scale
businesses were suffering. Azimi warned that Abdullah needed
to stimulate the economy and patch up differences with
Mahathir before calling an election, otherwise the situation
"will have an impact on UMNO's seats in the state." In front
of six other senior police officers from different divisions,
Special Branch Police Superintendent Awaludin bin Jadid, who
received us in Perlis in place of the ailing state police
chief, lambasted PM Abdullah for his ineffectiveness and
inability to deliver economic growth. "Since Abdullah took
over, nothing seems to be moving especially in the economic
field," he said. Awaludin lamented Mahathir's decision to
step down in 2003 and heaped praise on the former Prime
Minister, explaining that "all the development in Perlis is
due to Mahathir." (Comment: Awaludin later stated that he
had served in Mahathir's security detail, which only
partially explains why he was willing to be so disloyal to
his current Prime Minister in such a large meeting. End
Comment.)


9. (C) PAS State Commissioner for Kedah and veteran leader
Azizan Abdul Razak appeared to be under no illusion that PAS
would gain ground in Kedah in the next election. Azizan
noted PAS' strong showing in the 1999 polls. PAS' support
remained consistent in 2004, yet it had lost many of its
seats. He attributed this to an unfair playing field, such
as lack of access to the media, and manipulation of the
electoral process, including substantial gerrymandering.
Azizan and other PAS leaders dismissed the notion that
Mahathir would be a factor in the next election. UMNO
culture was such that once a leader steps down from his
position, UMNO members would forget him because "he has
nothing to offer his followers and supporters." Azizan
commented that when Abdullah originally took over as Prime
Minister, PAS had given him the benefit of the doubt due to
Abdullah's Islamic credentials. This resulted in toned-down
criticism of the Prime Minister. PAS had been disappointed,
however, in Abdullah's performance and personal conduct. The
last straw had been the photos of Abdullah placing his hand
on the bare shoulder of movie star Michele Yeoh during an

KUALA LUMP 00000352 003 OF 003


awards event. "What kind of Islamic leader is Abdullah if he
can do such a thing?" Azizan asked. PAS intended to make
good use of the "scandalous" photo in its election campaign.


10. (C) We met Azizan in PAS state headquarters, a large and
recently built complex that resembled a substantial factory
located in the midst of rice fields. The interior of the
building could accommodate thousands of assembly line workers
or party faithful. Rather than representing a white
elephant, Azizan explained the facility was built so that PAS
could hold large meetings and rallies indoors in a PAS-owned
building, obviating the need to apply for a police permit
that may not be granted to their opposition party.

Role of Anwar Ibrahim Debated
--------------


11. (C) Anwar Ibrahim and his role in the future election
constituted a consistent theme throughout our meetings in the
northern states. PAS leaders spoke glowingly of Anwar and
claimed he would be an important asset in the coming
campaign, regardless of whether Anwar was able to stand for
election in his own right. PAS valued Anwar as the "bridge"
between the non-Malays especially the Democratic Action Party
(DAP) and PAS, and as a name-brand figure able to attract
voters. PAS elders such as Wan Rahim and Azizan readily
admitted that they found it impossible to communicate with
DAP and other non-Malay parties, with Azizan commenting that
PAS and DAP were "like chickens and ducks, feeding at the
same trough, but unable to talk to one another." Anwar could
bridge the gap and hold together a loose working alliance in
the face of the ruling National Front juggernaut. (Comment:
DAP's alliance with PAS in the 1999 elections seriously
damaged DAP's base among ethnic Chinese voters. DAP will be
hesitant to reenter a close relationship with PAS. End
Comment.) Wan Rahim noted Anwar's value in attracting crowds
to campaign rallies. He thought that Anwar could win
election anywhere he contested, and implied that Anwar was
considering running in Kelantan. A seasoned local reporter
in Kelantan argued that PAS needs Anwar because the party
lacks a leader of national appeal following the death of
their former president Fadzil Noor, with current President
Hadi Awang viewed as too much of a firebrand conservative.


12. (C) UMNO leaders in Kelatan and Kedah described Anwar
Ibrahim as a "spent force" who would not have any impact on
UMNO and National Front prospects in the election. Kedah's
Azimi Daim stated that Anwar has political leverage with
voters in relation to Mahathir, who jailed him, but not to
Abdullah, who freed Anwar. Kelatan's Anuar Musa cited Anwar
Ibrahim's role in the 2005 by-election, in which Anwar drew
thousands to PAS political rallies, yet PAS lost the seat in
the end. "If Anwar can't deliver a by-election, how can he
have any impact nationwide?" questioned the UMNO Kelantan
leader.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) During the week of our travel in the northern
Malaysian states, Malaysia's government-steered mainstream
press began a barrage of bold print, feel-good pieces on the
excellent state of the nation and progress under Abdullah's
stewardship. Our meetings, however, were dominated by
grumblings over the country's perceived economic weakness and
lack of clear leadership from the Prime Minister, as well as
comments on the importance of senior political figures
(Mahathir, Anwar) other than Abdullah Badawi. As PAS and
UMNO comments clearly indicate, the next election in Kelantan
will be hotly contested.
LAFLEUR