PM'S AIDE SAYS TERENGGANU RIOT WILL SCARE AWAY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 001400

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM KISL MY
SUBJECT: PM'S AIDE SAYS TERENGGANU RIOT WILL SCARE AWAY
CHINESE VOTERS FROM OPPOSITION

REF: KUALA LUMPUR 1377 - POLICE BREAK UP TERENGGANU
RALLY

Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MARK D. CLARK, REASON 1.4 (B AND
D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Wan Farid (protect throughout),a political aide to
Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, during a September 12 meeting
with polchief, denied his involvement in the September 8
Terengganu riot and instead alleged opposition parties had
planned the violence in order to boost public sympathy for
their cause. Ethnic Chinese voters prioritize security,
however, and the violence would serve to scare them back into
the camp of the ruling National Front (BN),countering the
perceived trend of increasing Chinese support for the
opposition. Commenting on prospects in key states in the
next election, Wan Farid saw no problem for BN to retain
control of Terengganu thought the opposition would fall flat
in Sabah, and hoped the Terengganu violence would dampen
opposition support in Chinese-majority Penang. Wan Farid was
less optimistic regarding BN's hopes to capture Kelantan, the
only state in opposition hands. Polchief raised U.S. concern
over Iranian shipments via Malaysia (the Target Airfreight
case) and trafficking in persons, with Wan Farid offering to
assist on both counts in the future. Wan Farid said PM
Abdullah would maintain a very hectic travel schedule through
the Ramadan season. End Summary.

Terengganu Riot
--------------


2. (C) Wan Farid, political secretary to PM Abdullah Badawi
in Abdullah's role as Minister for Internal Security, told
polchief September 12 that he had no hand in the September 8
riot in Terengganu (reftel),contrary to accusations leveled
against him by the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS, the
Islamist opposition party). (Note: Wan Farid hails from
Terengganu, and met police and UMNO party officials there on
September 8-9. End Note.) Instead, opposition parties had
planned the violence in order to generate public sympathy and
rekindle the 1998-1999 "reformasi" spirit (a reference to the
opposition movement at the time of the Asian financial crisis
and the arrest of former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar
Ibrahim). Opposition supporters' use of Molotov cocktails
stood as evidence of premeditated violence, he claimed.


3. (C) Comment: The government and UMNO continue to
exchange claims and counter-claims with the opposition
parties regarding the Terengganu violence. The government's
version of events dominates the state-controlled mainstream
media, painting opposition supporters as dangerous and
unpatriotic troublemakers, with particular focus on the photo
of an alleged protester setting fire to a Malaysian flag.
Opposition parties claim the police staged the photo to
incriminate them; allege government provocateurs ignited the
violence; and condemn lack of respect for freedom of assembly
and the use of force against their ranks. PAS will hold its
next rally (ceramah) the evening of September 14 in a
PAS-built mosque in Terengganu. End Comment.


4. (C) Wan Farid commented that ethnic Chinese voters placed
a high priority on law and order issues. Scenes of rioting
in Terengganu would remind them of the risks of empowering
the opposition and would result in greater support for BN.
The PM's aide hoped BN could capitalize on this to reverse
the perceived trend of increasing ethnic Chinese support for
the opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP).

Electoral Prospects in Key States
--------------


5. (C) Polchief queried Wan Farid on the BN and leading
United Malays National Organization (UMNO) prospects in key
states during the coming national election. The PM's aide
offered the following comments:

-- Terengganu: UMNO would retain the state in the next
general election. State civil servants, who formerly worked
under PAS when the Islamist opposition held the state, were
now firmly behind UMNO. PAS allegations of phantom voters
were baseless.

-- Sabah: UMNO state Chief and Chief Minister Datuk Musa

KUALA LUMP 00001400 002 OF 002


Aman is "doing a good job" and therefore BN would have no
problem in maintaining its dominance. (Note: BN controls all
25 parliamentary positions and 59 out of the 60 state seats.)
The opposition lacks strong leadership in the state and the
resources to sustain a serious campaign due to Sabah's
extended size and limited transportation network -- even
BN/UMNO finances were strained by the costs of campaigning in
Sabah.

-- Penang: BN's prospects had been "shaky" due to the
possibility of Chinese votes swinging to the opposition DAP.
However, the Terengganu riot would have an effect similar to
the 1998-1999 "reformasi" demonstrations, which resulted in a
concerned Chinese community voting in favor of BN in the 1999
poll.

-- Kelantan: The inability of UMNO/BN leader Annuar Musa to
unite various factions in the state would affect BN's chances
to take control of Kelantan, the only state in opposition
hands. In order to send a clear signal to the public that
BN/UMNO had confidence in winning at the state level, BN had
decided that no leaders in Kelantan would contest both a
state seat and a national parliament seat (viewed as a safer
option). Kelantan parliamentarian Zaid Ibrahim remained
suspended from his UMNO party position and currently had no
standing to run under BN.

Next UMNO Assembly
--------------


6. (C) Wan Farid stated that UMNO had shifted the date for
its annual party assembly to November 5 in order to avoid the
Hindu Deepavali public holiday. He stressed there would be
no repeat of last year's disastrous live television broadcast
of the assembly, which had damaged BN's support among the
Chinese (through unedited broadcast of aggressive,
chauvinistic Malay rhetoric).

Raising U.S. Concerns on Iran, TIP
--------------


7. (S) Polchief raised U.S. concerns over the possibility of
Iranian purchases and shipments via Malaysia of goods in
violation of U.S. laws, noting the public U.S. sanctions
against Target Airfreight. Polchief said we viewed such
matters very seriously from the perspective of U.S. national
security, and the security of our friends and allies in the
Middle East. Wan Farid appeared to pay close attention to
these remarks and replied, "I hope you are not talking about
Scomi" (a company, controlled by the Prime Minister's son
Kamaluddin, whose subsidiary was implicated in the A.Q. Khan
network's proliferation activities). Wan Farid said he would
be willing to raise future such U.S. concerns to the
attention of the Prime Minister.


8. (C) Polchief also explained the U.S. trafficking in
persons tier-ranking decision, and urged Malaysian actions to
implement the new TIP law and open the victims' shelters that
the GOM already has prepared. Wan Farid said he would look
into the implementation of the new law and advocate for the
prosecution of traffickers. (Note: The Ministry of Internal
Security, which Wan Farid is attached to, is the coordinating
agency for anti-trafficking under the new law. End Note.)

PM Abdullah's Schedule and Stamina
--------------


9. (C) Wan Farid said PM Abdullah had followed a grueling
schedule of events and travel in recent weeks, and this would
continue. The Prime Minister would depart for UNGA September
24 or 25, and return to Malaysia October 6, after visiting
London and performing "Umrah" in Saudi Arabia. Upon his
return, Abdullah would embark on Ramadan tours of the states,
a task he would divide with Deputy Prime Minister Najib.
When scheduling the PM's travel, Wan Farid said he attempted
to build in two or three-hour breaks between events to ensure
the Prime Minister remained adequately rested.
SHEAR