CHINESE VOTERS DISSATISFIED WITH RULING COALITION,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 001257

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MY
SUBJECT: CHINESE VOTERS DISSATISFIED WITH RULING COALITION,
BUT OPPOSITION GAINS MAY BE LIMITED

REF: 06 KUALA LUMPUR 1975 - MALAYSIA'S CHINESE MINORITY

Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark
for reasons 1.4 (b and d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Corruption, crime and vernacular education remain
among the top electoral priorities for Malaysia's ethnic
Chinese community, and in the run-up to the next national
election Chinese dissatisfaction with the ruling Coalition's
handling of such issues appears on the rise. To explore
ethnic Chinese voter perspectives, during July we spoke with
various Chinese civil society groups, including important
clan associations, Chinese assembly halls, the Chinese
language press, and think-tanks associated with the various
political parties representing the Chinese community, namely
the ruling National Front (BN)'s Malaysian Chinese
Association (MCA) and People's Movement Party (Gerakan),
along with the opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP).
This report conveys the sentiments and views we encountered,
which are notably consistent with the findings of a recent
survey conducted by the Merdeka Center and indicate growing
voter dissatisfaction in Malaysia's Chinese community.
Despite the expressed Chinese disaffection, however, neither
opposition parties nor BN foresee major shifts at the polls.
End Summary.


Key issues and concerns for the Chinese community
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) The upcoming national election in Malaysia will
feature important issues for the Chinese community and the
parties that represent them. The major Chinese and
Chinese-dominated parties all have centered their campaigns
around a few common themes: to reduce the crime rate and
government corruption, end the New Economic Policy (NEP),and
improve support for Chinese "vernacular" education. (Note:
Gerakan and DAP are non-ethnic parties, but closely
associated with the Chinese community. End Note.) In the
2004 election, Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi and the United
Malays National Organization (UMNO) - the largest component
of National Front (Barisan National or BN)- focused their
campaign platforms on combating corruption, promoting
religious moderation, and advancing police and administration
reform. Our interviews reveal that, at present, Chinese
Malaysians generally believe that PM Abdullah has failed to
achieve any of these campaign promises. In addition to this
failure, the increase of the crime rate has become a
particularly important issue to the Chinese community because
the Chinese perceive themselves as disproportionately
affected by rising criminal activity. In addition, the New
Economic Policy (NEP),remains a longstanding sore point for
Chinese Malaysians as the policy is now seen more and more as
directed against Chinese wealth rather than against foreign
ownership, as it was originally designed. Finally, the lack
of support for Chinese vernacular schools is a recurrent
issue that resonates within the Chinese community. Some
Chinese complain that now even Malays, recognizing the better
educational opportunities, are sending their children to
Chinese vernacular schools. This influx of non-Chinese
students results in insufficient facilities and a lack of
teachers in the relatively few publicly supported Chinese
schools that exist. These concerns -- corruption, crime, NEP
and education -- span the political spectrum in Malaysia's
Chinese community and remain key issues that all Chinese
parties, regardless of affiliation, find themselves
addressing before their constituents.

Will dissatisfaction harm BN?
--------------


3. (SBU) Tay Tien Yan, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of a leading
Chinese language newspaper, Sin Chew Daily (a privately owned
but government influenced newspaper),agreed that corruption,
crime and education remain the largest motivating factors in
the Chinese community. He pointed out that readers most
often wrote to the newspaper expressing concern over these
issues. All the Chinese political parties, said Tan, have
responded to the Chinese community's concerns and have issued
statements to the newspapers that their parties would look
into the issues and voice the community's concerns. Some
readers stated that they would vote for the opposition DAP.
Not surprisingly, however, many said they would continue to
vote for BN even though they do not like the government and
are dissatisfied with its performance, particularly in
tackling crime. Those who claim to support BN cite stability
and continuity as their main reasons to maintain their

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backing of the government. Voting for the opposition party
has too many unknowns for this constituency, said Tay.

Parties comment on prospects
--------------


4. (SBU) Like all parties in Malaysia, the Chinese parties
are keenly interested in the date of the anticipated general
elections. Several prominent people from the community and
political parties opined that the election will be held early
next year, March or April, ideally after Chinese New Year in
February. According to the Vice-chair of the Kuala Lumpur
and Selangor Chinese Assembly Hall's Civil Rights Committee,
Wong Chin Huat, BN is prepared for the upcoming election and
it is ready to call for election. Local newspapers, Nanyang
Sang Pau and Oriental Daily News reported that MCA and
Gerakan are well-prepared for the election as well.


5. (C) With all the talk of upcoming elections, some Chinese
question why the government wants to call for early polls
even though BN must know that they will lose a few seats in
Parliament by doing this. Fui K. Soong, director of Institute
of Strategic Analysis and Policy Research (INSAP),a MCA
sponsored think-tank, believes that BN wants to see MCA and
Gerakan fail. According to Soong, voter dissatisfaction runs
high in the Chinese community, but Malays remain loyal to
UMNO. If BN component parties MCA and Gerakan fare poorly in
the next election, UNMO will have a stronger reason to take
the seats back (reallocate seats within BN) from MCA and
Gerakan over the long run. Soong believes UMNO's tactic is
to diminish the overall influence of MCA and Gerakan within
the BN framework, thereby strengthening UMNO's dominion over
politics in the country.


6. (SBU) Chinese political pundits inside and outside the
ruling coalition concur that BN might lose a few
parliamentary seats to the opposition party DAP in the coming
election. Khoo Kay Peng, executive director of the Sedar
Institute, a Gerakan-based think tank, concluded that BN will
certainly dominate the upcoming election but may not win 90
percent of the seats in the national Parliament as they did
in 2004. According to Khoo, MCA and Gerakan will likely lose
a few seats due to Chinese voter dissatisfaction. Executive
Director of Research for Social Advancement from the
opposition party DAP, Liew Chin Tong, is optimistic about the
upcoming election but does not anticipate unrealistic gains.
He believes that the coming polls will resemble the 1986
election, when DAP won 24 seats (currently DAP holds 12).


7. (SBU) Recognizing the community's call for change, MCA
President and Minister of Housing Ong Ka Ting announced
earlier this year that MCA would seek to replace up to 30
percent of its incumbents with new, younger faces. Ong has
already begun replacing party leaders in various states and
several aging Chinese politicians have announced their intent
not to seek reelection. Although internal and fundamental
change is difficult in any party, Fui K. Soong, director of
MCA's INSAP, agreed that MCA needs to have new faces if it is
to compete with DAP for appeasing Malaysia's dissatisfied
voters. She opined that many of MCA's incumbents are old and
have been in the party for many years and the party needs to
have younger leaders to contribute their creative ideas.
According to Soong, having 30% new faces will help convince
constituents that MCA is committed to change and the
long-term future of the Chinese community. Soong noted that
from INSAP's perspective reducing corruption represented the
critical issue, although the government appears incapable of
accomplishing this difficult task. She concedes that DAP will
likely capture a few MCA seats in the coming election but
politics will remain fundamentally unchanged as UMNO will
always emerge the majority winner in any election.

Merdeka Center Survey
--------------


8. (SBU) Consistent with our own interviews showing Chinese
discontent, Malaysia's independent polling organization, the
Merdeka Center for Opinion Research, recently released
results of their June survey of 1,022 Malaysian citizens in.
The random survey of adults over age 21 in peninsular
Malaysia revealed that Chinese Malaysians give PM Abdullah
Badawi the lowest approval rating of all major ethnic groups
at only 54 percent (compared to 88 percent of Malays and 71
percent of Indians). Moreover, the Merdeka Center survey
showed that only 8 percent of Chinese Malaysians felt
Abdullah kept his 2004 election pledges to fight corruption.
Ibrahim Suffian, director of the Merdeka Center, commented to
the press that "the majority of Chinese think Abdullah did
not keep most of his election promises....More Chinese also
think that the problem of the sluggish Malaysian economy can

KUALA LUMP 00001257 003 OF 003


be addressed by having more opposition leaders in
Parliament." When the survey asked if the country needs a
stronger opposition, 82 percent of the Chinese agreed. When
questioned more specifically, 62 percent of the Chinese
surveyed responded they were "willing" to vote for DAP and 42
percent were "willing" to vote for Anwar Ibrahim's People's
Justice Party (Keadilan - PKR).

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The dissatisfaction with the BN and expressed
willingness in the Chinese community to support DAP does not
necessarily translate into opposition votes at the polling
booth. Voter apathy and poor candidate choice have long been
obstacles that the Chinese opposition has been unable to
sufficiently overcome. Nevertheless, Chinese voters are
apparently feeling more and more dissatisfied with the
current state of political affairs in Malaysia. While very
few Chinese Malaysians mentioned to us the issues of
religious freedom, such as the Lina Joy apostasy case or the
"Islamic state" controversy, crime and corruption remain
foremost on the minds of the voters. Traditional bread and
butter issues of vernacular education and the economy also
remain mainstays of the local Chinese political debate, and
it is quite possible that the Barisan Nasional government
will reach out to the Chinese community through the next
budget cycle in an attempt to appease the Chinese voting
block. Recent announcements concerning the Northern Economic
Corridor also provide demonstrable examples of the GOM's
economic/development outreach to the Chinese communities of
Penang and Perak and will undoubtedly be touted by BN
coalition partners in the next campaign cycle. Even
considering Chinese dissatisfaction with the status quo, in a
head to head race between BN and DAP, Chinese voter apathy
just might win out.
LAFLEUR