Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KOLKATA382
2007-12-19 11:21:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Kolkata
Cable title:  

NAGA INSURGENTS SEEK UNITY PRIOR TO NAGALAND STATE ASSEMBLY

Tags:  PTER PGOV PHUM ASEC BM IN 
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VZCZCXRO5545
PP RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHCN
DE RUEHCI #0382/01 3531121
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191121Z DEC 07
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1800
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1698
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI PRIORITY 0772
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI PRIORITY 0777
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0511
RUEHGO/AMEMBASSY RANGOON 0366
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0510
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 0119
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0413
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 2202
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KOLKATA 000382 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PTER PGOV PHUM ASEC BM IN
SUBJECT: NAGA INSURGENTS SEEK UNITY PRIOR TO NAGALAND STATE ASSEMBLY
ELECTIONS

REF: KOLKATA 0377

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KOLKATA 000382

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PTER PGOV PHUM ASEC BM IN
SUBJECT: NAGA INSURGENTS SEEK UNITY PRIOR TO NAGALAND STATE ASSEMBLY
ELECTIONS

REF: KOLKATA 0377


1. (SBU) Summary. December 3-7, ConGen and Embassy New Delhi
PolCouns visited Nagaland and discussed with officials and
contacts the Naga insurgencies and preparations for the February
2008 state assembly elections. While many decried the
internecine violence among the insurgent factions, most
contacts, even senior government officials such as Chief
Minister Neiphiu Rio, supported the insurgents' goal of autonomy
for a greater Nagaland, incorporating Nagas from other Indian
states and even in Burma. However, views were split on the
possible results of the impending state assembly election.
Naturally, CM Rio expressed confidence that his Naga Freedom
Party (NFP)-led Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) coalition
aligned to the national opposition National Democratic Alliance
(NDA) would return to power. However, Rio has experienced many
defections, with cabinet ministers resigning to join the state
opposition Congress Party. Rio's Congress opposition believes
that, with a Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) as
the national government, the state opposition will be able to
defeat the Rio's NDA coalition. End Summary.

--------------
Naga Insurgency
--------------


2. (U) When India became independent in 1947, the Nagas (then
inhabitants of the Naga Hills in undivided Assam) were unwilling
to be part of the new republic, considering themselves distinct
from Indians, and launched an armed struggle for a sovereign
Naga homeland. The Naga community consists of 17 major tribes
and at least 20 sub-tribes. They inhabit primarily the present
state of Nagaland, and areas in Manipur, Assam, Arunachal
Pradesh and Burma. U.S. missionaries' conversion of the Nagas
and missionary school education weakened the exclusive clan
allegiance of the sub-tribes and fostered the growth of a
pan-Naga consciousness. The GOI's creation of a Nagaland state
in 1963 failed to contain militancy and the Naga insurgency has
resulted in 20,000 deaths in Nagaland since India's
independence.


3. (SBU) The Naga National Council (NNC) under Angami Zapu
Phizo initially led the early revolt against the GOI. General

Secretary of the Naga Hoho (the governing tribal body) Neingulo

SIPDIS
Krome and other Naga contacts told ConGen that Naga insurgents
received training from China and Pakistan in the 1960s and
1970s, with some insurgents trekking across Burma to reach
southwest China. In 1975 NNC moderates accepted the Indian
Constitution following the Shillong Accord with New Delhi.
However, NNC radicals subsequently formed the National Socialist
Council of Nagalim (NSCN) in 1980 demanding a greater Nagaland
encompassing all Naga inhabited areas in India's northeast.
NSCN split in 1988 with one faction under Isak Chisi Swu and
Thuingaleng Muivah and the other led by S. Khaplang. The NSCN
(Isak-Muivah) (NSCN-IM) emerged as the more powerful of the two
factions. A cease-fire was initiated between GOI and NSCN-IM in
1997, but negotiations have not progressed significantly. In
April 2000 the NSCN-Khaplang (NSCN-K) declared a cease-fire, but
no productive talks have resulted.


4. (SBU) The larger NSCN-IM operates primarily in Nagaland,
Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. NSCN-K is more limited to
Burma and parts of Nagaland. The NSCN-IM's objective is to
establish Greater Nagaland (Nagalim) consisting of all Naga
inhabited areas in Northeast India. The outfit has links in
Burma, Bangladesh, Thailand and the Netherlands. General
Secretary Thuingaleng Muivah and Chairman Isak Chisi Swu are

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negotiating for a peace settlement with GOI, and have virtually
given up the demand for sovereignty. During the previous
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA national government, the
GOI acknowledged the "unique history" of the Nagas, something
that Nagas interpreted as a positive direction in the
negotiations. But with a Congress government in New Delhi since
May 2004, the peace negotiations appear to be deadlocked. While
the GOI is believed to have unofficially agreed to the
insurgents' demand for greater autonomy in all departments,
barring currency, external affairs, communication and defense,
the NSCN-IM leadership is unwilling to compromise on inclusion
of Naga inhabited areas in neighboring states of Assam, Manipur
and Arunachal Pradesh into a greater Nagaland. New Delhi has
made it clear that it is not in favor of creating unrest and

KOLKATA 00000382 002 OF 003


resentment in other Northeast states simply to appease Nagas.

--------------
Efforts at Naga Unity
--------------


5. (SBU) During the time of ConGen and PolCouns' visit, Naga
Hoho representatives and individuals from the insurgent groups
were attempting to create a consensus among the independence
factions. On December 3 some NSCN-IM and NSCN-K members formed
an NSCN (Unity) faction. Speaking to ConGen, Naga Hoho General
Secretary Krome initially dismissed the new unity group as being

SIPDIS
primarily from the Sumi Naga tribe and not representing a broad
cross section of the dominant tribes such as the Angami, Ao,
Lotha and others. However on December 14, the Naga Hoho issued
a statement in support of the unity efforts and on December 17,
the NSCN-IM, NSCN-K and the NNC agreed to a six-month cease fire
agreement.


6. (SBU) The recent unity efforts have reduced the internecine
factional fighting that had been increasing in the run-up to the
state assembly elections scheduled for February 2008. The
Institute for Conflict Management's provisional data for 2007
indicates that of the 108 people killed by insurgency violence,
88 deaths were from intra-factional insurgent fighting. The
NSCN-IM is closely linked with CM Rio, his Naga People's Front
(NPF) and the NDA and the NSCN-K is linked with the state
Congress Party. The political parties use the Naga factions to
support candidates in the constituencies by intimidating voters
and extorting funds. The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR)
reported in December that the Naga insurgents operate
"unhindered in the townships and country-side, enforcing their
groups' diktats across Nagaland. Intelligence reports indicate
that the cadre strength of the NSCN-IM has increased from 800 to
about 2,500 since the July 1997 cease-fire announcement. The
outfit's well-oiled `finance department' engages in wide-spread
`tax-collection' activities and its `home department' virtually
runs the State administration. Its `crime suppression
department' ensures control of its areas of dominance,
administering a selective `justice' over various `offences.'"
In November, Congress party official, former Nagaland Chief
Minister and present Goa Governor S. C. Jamir alleged he was
ambushed by the NSCN-IM while visiting Nagaland. Although
unhurt in the attack, Jamir claimed that he was targeted by the
NSCN-IM because of his Congress affiliation. As Goa Governor,
Jamir could not officially campaign; however, many contacts
believed that Jamir was in Nagaland to prepare for the state
assembly election.

--------------
State Assembly Elections
--------------


7. (SBU) In his conversation with ConGen and PolCouns, CM Rio
expressed confidence that his NFP-led DAN coalition would retain
power in the February 2008 state assembly elections. However,
his government has seen a number of departures and defections to
the opposition Congress party. In November, Minister for Roads
and Bridges, and Works and Housing Tokheho Yepthomi resigned
from the DAN council of ministers and two Independent MLAs -- P.
Chuba Chang and Jongshilemba - withdrew their support to the DAN
government and also resigned as Parliamentary Secretaries.
Possibly reflecting Rio's efforts to compensate for his weakened
position, he has sought to reach out to the NSCN-K faction. On
December 2, the CM asked the GOI to pressure the Burmese junta
to grant autonomous status to the Naga tribes in Burma. The
NSCN-K faction's greatest support is among the four Naga tribes
and 49 clans located between the northern Chindwin and the
Indo-Burma border. However, senior state Congress Party leader

I. Imkong was equally confident in his conversation with
PolCouns that Congress would form a coalition government in the
next state elections. Other contacts were split as to the
possible election results in February. Many noted that Rio's
support has diminished and that Congress has an advantage with
the backing of the Congress-ruling national government, but the
contacts were not certain that Congress would necessarily win
enough votes to form a new government.


8. (SBU) Comment: Recent efforts by Naga insurgents to stop
factional fighting may will reduce violence prior to the state

KOLKATA 00000382 003 OF 003


assembly elections in 2008. However, the insurgents continue to
maintain excessive influence in the Nagaland, running shadow
governments in the areas under their control. What may have
started as a political movement for Naga independence has
devolved into something more akin to organized crime supported
by extortion and intimidation. The local political parties'
willingness to align themselves with the insurgents and to use
them for their political ends means that no effective efforts
are being taken to reduce the insurgents' grip on Nagaland.
The GOI sees Nagaland as remote and of limited economic or
political significance and so is willing to let the lawlessness
fester, anticipating that the profiteering will corrode the
desire for Naga independence. End Comment.


9. (U) Reftel reports on HIV/AIDS in Nagaland. This message
was coordinated with AmEmbassy New Delhi.
JARDINE