LOCAL ELECTION RESULTS IN W. BENGAL MAY MEAN LEFT FRONT GRIP

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000228

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON EAGR EIND IN
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTION RESULTS IN W. BENGAL MAY MEAN LEFT FRONT GRIP
IS LOOSENING

REF: KOLKATA 88, KOLKATA 92, KOLKATA 95, KOLKATA 104


1. (SBU) Summary: Left Front leaders welcomed the July 22
Haldia municipal election results as indicative of support for
their policy of industrialization in W. Bengal. However, of the
26 seats up for grabs, the Left won 19 and the opposition 7,
compared to the 2002 elections when the Left won all the seats.
Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) strongman Lakshman Seth
has transformed Haldia into an urban industrialized hub, but
adjacent to urban Haldia lies rural Nandigram, a politically
turbulent zone resisting the state's policy of land acquisition
for industry. The March 14 police shooting that killed 14
people in Nandigram raised CPM concerns about the Left's
possible loss of support from farmers and Muslims. Although the
Haldia results indicate support for Seth and the government's
industrialization drive (including promotion of a chemical hub
in the area),it may not be indicative of the mood of the entire
state, and the agriculture versus industry issue will remain
significant at the polls. End summary.


2. (SBU) The Left Front victory in the July 22 Haldia
municipality elections was hailed by West Bengal's
pro-industrialization Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya as
"a victory for the people," while Left Front Chairman Biman Basu
observed that it was a verdict in favor of the W. Bengal
government's policy of industrialization. Of the 26 seats in
the municipality, the CPM won 17, its ally the Communist Party
of India (CPI) 2, opposition party Trinamul Congress 6 and the
People's Democratic Conference of India (PDCI) 1. For many
pundits in the state, the verdict represents a shift in the
nature of public opinion on the "land for industry" policy and
for Bhattacharya's industrialization drive in W. Bengal. This
policy has led to widespread violence and resistance to the
administration in the Nandigram area bordering Haldia (reftels).
Notably, in the 2002 municipal polls, the Left won all the
seats. This time, though, what has been called a "grand
alliance" - including Trinamul, Congress and the Jamiat Ulema e
Hind's political front PDCI - managed to capture 7 seats. The
Congress did not win any. Significantly, the opposition gains
were in rural areas, while the urban centers favored the Left.



3. (SBU) CPM MP and Haldia Development Authority Chairman
Lakshman Seth is largely responsible for transforming Haldia
into an urban hub. Easily the most powerful leader in the area,
the municipal verdict is being interpreted by some as support
for Seth's aggressive pro-industry stance. Seth told Post that
the poll results have established the people's opinion in favor
of industry and urbanization in the entire zone. He emphasized
that people, including farmers, realize that agriculture cannot
sustain the economy - and their livelihoods -- in the long run.
Seth's wife Tamalika has been re-nominated as Chairperson of the
Haldia municipality.


4. (SBU) Haldia, in the East Midnapore district of southern W.
Bengal, is situated on the banks of the Haldi river on the other
side of which lies Nandigram, a politically turbulent zone.
While Haldia town is an industrial hub, the surrounding
countryside is populated mainly by agricultural communities.
Since January, a resistance movement organized by Nandigram's
Bhumi Ucched Pratirodh Committee (BUPC) against proposed
acquisition of agricultural land for industrialization virtually
cut off the area from administrative control by the elected
government. BUPC's confrontation with the administration on
March 14 led to the police killing at least 14 people and
injuring 71 others. The BUPC is composed of local CPM
defectors who are opposed to the government's land acquisition
policy, opposition party workers and ultra-Left elements.
Nandigram's local population is largely Muslim and the economy
is agrarian. The Nandigram incident and continued violence
between the local CPM and opposition workers continues to give
rise to speculation that the Left is losing its traditional
vote-bank of farmers and Muslims.


5. (SBU) Haldia holds an important place in the state's
industrial development plan and is an emerging hub of chemical
and petrochemical industries. For the Left Front government,
Haldia is the potential site for a major chemical Special
Economic Zone (SEZ),and the GOI selected the area for setting
up a Petroleum, Chemical, Petrochemical Investment Region

KOLKATA 00000228 002 OF 002


(PCPIR) covering more than 62,000 acres. Existing chemical and
petrochemical units in Haldia cover part of this area, and the
state government was in the process of preparing a detailed
project report to identify 10,000 acres more for submission to
GOI when the Nandigram killings took place. The municipal
elections victory boosted the government's confidence, and Seth
told Post that the government is moving forward with its plans
regarding the 10,000 acre project.


6. (SBU) Comment: Prior to the Haldia municipal elections,
Seth's detractors in the CPM emphasized that his arbitrary,
thuggish tactics were responsible for alienating farmers, and
led to the Nandigram incident. In contrast, Seth's supporters
insisted that his contribution to developing Haldia and
organizing the party at the local level was key to the CPM's
complete control over the area. The poll results indicate
Seth's continued grip on East Midnapore and Haldia's industrial
core of workers and entrepreneurs. However, the Opposition's
gains show that the industry versus land issue continues to be a
dividing line at the polls, and demonstrates the continuing
challenge for India to bring its poorer, marginalized sectors
into the industrialization and modernization movement.
JARDINE