KABILA ALLIES WITH APPARENT MAJORITY IN

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: GOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: KABILA ALLIES WITH APPARENT MAJORITY IN
PRELIMINARY SENATE TALLY


1. (U) Summary. Allies of President Joseph Kabila look to
be able to form a majority in the DRC Senate elected by
indirect vote January 19. Transitional Vice Presidents Bemba
and Yerodia won seats, as did several transitional ministers
and a number of insiders from the Mobutu and Laurent Kabila
eras. Independents accounted for the largest number of seats
with 26, followed by Kabila's PPRD with 22, and Bemba's MLC
with 14. Strong showings by the parties of ministerial
hopefuls Nyamwisi, Endundo and Ruberwa strengthened their
cases for positions in the as-yet-unannounced government.
End summary.


2. (U) Parties aligned with President Joseph Kabila's
electoral coalition appear to have won a majority in the DRC
Senate voted by provincial assembly deputies January 19. The
108 senators, together with the 500 National Assembly
deputies elected July 30, will constitute the DRC's first
democratically-elected legislature in over 40 years. The
Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) announced preliminary
results January 20 pending final review by the Supreme Court
January 22. The Senate is scheduled to commence work
February 3.


3. (U) Early estimates indicate Kabila's AMP coalition won a
slight paper majority of seats. In fact, it should be able
to count on close to 60 of the 108 seats after factoring in
known supporters running as independents. The totals should
enable the governing coalition to choose the president of the
Senate, who would be first in line of succession if President
Kabila were unable to complete his term.


4. (U) Two Transitional Vice Presidents, Jean-Pierre Bemba
and Abdoulaye Yerodia, were among those elected, from
Kinshasa and Bas-Congo respectively. The vote will provide
Bemba an institutional platform to lead a political
opposition. Yerodia, comrade-in-arms of Laurent Kabila, is a
leading candidate in early speculation regarding possible
Senate presidents.


5. (U) Other prominent names include a number of ministers
of the Transition, including Foreign Minister Raymond
Ramazani, Economy Minister Moise Nyarugabu and Lands Minister
Venant Tshipasa, former Finance Minister Andre-Philippe Futa,
the heads of the transitional media and human rights
oversight bodies, respectively Modeste Mutinga and Mwamus
Mwamba Mushikonke, and the president of the transitional
Senate, Monsignor Pierre Marini. The vote will also return
to government almost a dozen figures from Mobutu's inner
circle, notably former prime minsisters Leon Kengo wa Dondo
and Vincent Lunda Bululu, as well as "Mobutu's Foccart,"
Edouard Mokolo wa Mpombo, in company with a large handful of
other senior intelligence and internal security officials
from the Mobutu and Laurent Kabila eras.


6. (U) The Senate will include a number of former provincial
governors, traditional chiefs, a Katanga journalist, at least
two parastatal CEOs, and Francois Kaniki, the brother of
Kisangani's influential Catholic Archbishop Monsignor Laurent
Monsengwo. Only five women were elected, two of them MLC
candidates from Kinshasa: former governor Bernadette Nkoy
Mafuta, and Bemba coalition spokeswoman and unsuccessful
National Assembly candidate Eve Bazaiba, an ex-UDPS militant
who gained notoriety for incendiary rhetoric during the
presidential campaign. Kabila chief of staff Leonard She
Okitundu, also rumored as a candidate for Senate president
along with Marini and Futa, and the fathers of MLC leaders
Bemba and Delly Sesanga, were also elected.

7 (U) Two of the new senators have unusual American
connections: Bishop Pierre Ntambo Nkulu Ntanda, a leading
international figure in the United Methodist Church from
President Kabila's home region of North Katanga, who heads
Africa University of Nashville, Tennessee, and Edouard
Mwangachuchu, a one-time Tutsi refugee to the United States
who has become a leading Congolese trader and exporter of
coltan.


8. (U) Independents accounted for the largest number of
seats with 26, followed by the PPRD with 22 and MLC with 14.
PPRD candidates won seats in all provinces but South Kivu,
while over two-thirds of MLC senators will come from just two
provinces, Equateur and Kinshasa. The Forces du Renouveau of
ministerial hopeful Mbusa Nyamwisi won seven seats, former
minister Jose Endundo's PDC took six, and Azarias Ruberwa's
RCD picked up five. No other party, including Antoine
Gizenga's PALU and Mobutu Nzanga's UDEMO, won more than three

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seats.


9. (U) Detailed reports to follow septel.


10. (U) Comment: From all reports, the vote in the eleven
provincial assemblies appears to have gone smoothly. The
Senate will have far less power than the National Assembly,
but its members will bring a depth of experience to
legislation that the Assembly currently lacks. End comment.
MEECE