CONGOLESE, MONUC OFFICIALS DISCOUNT THREAT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000417

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UG CG
SUBJECT: CONGOLESE, MONUC OFFICIALS DISCOUNT THREAT OF
ADF-NALU FORCES IN DRC

REF: A. KAMPALA 577


B. 05 KINSHASA 2103

C. KINSHASA 389

D. KINSHASA 411

Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) Summary: Congolese and MONUC military officials claim
elements of the Allied Democratic Forces and National Army
for the Liberation of Uganda (ADF-NALU) operating in the DRC
no longer pose a significant security threat. They contend
ADF-NALU numbers have been greatly reduced since joint
FARDC-MONUC operations against the group in December 2005.
This assessment follows recent fighting between ADF-NALU and
Ugandan forces. The GOU is calling for the GDRC and MONUC to
take "immediate action" against the group, saying Uganda
"cannot fold its arms when its security is threatened by
these negative forces operating from GDRC territory." End
summary.


2. (SBU) Ugandan ministers protested to Congolese authorities
and Western diplomats over alleged recent incursions by
ADF-NALU fighters into Uganda from the DRC (ref A) following
several clashes between the Ugandan People's Defense Forces
(UPDF) and ADF-NALU members near the Uganda-DRC border in
late March. In a diplomatic note to the GDRC, the GOU claims
it killed several dozen rebels in the fighting. Minister of
State for International Relations Henry Okello Oryem urged
the GDRC to take "immediate actions" to end the activities of
ADF-NALU in its territory. Ugandan Minister of Defense
Crispus Kiyonga called on MONUC to deal with the situation as
well.


3. (SBU) Following these appeals, Francis Butagira, Uganda's
Permanent Representative to the UN, sent a letter April 5 to
the UNSC stating the GOU viewed the recent fighting "with a
lot of concern." The letter charges that both the GDRC and
MONUC have done "nothing" to deal with "negative forces" on
DRC soil. Butagira warned that Uganda "cannot remain silent
or fold its arms when its security is threatened" by groups
such as ADF-NALU.


4. (C) DRC military and defense officials told us they do not
view ADF-NALU as a threat to security, and viewed Uganda's
demands as the "real threat." Vice Minister for National
Defense Nelson Paluku, a native of North Kivu province where
ADF-NALU elements are located, said April 6 he did not
consider the group particularly dangerous or a priority for
the military. Likewise, FARDC 8th Military Region (North
Kivu) Deputy Commander Col. Delphin Kahimbi told PolOff
during a February visit to Goma that ADF-NALU was not among
the military's more pressing security concerns in the
province. Paluku added that ADF-NALU no longer has many
members, as its ranks were decimated or chased out of the DRC
following joint FARDC-MONUC operations in December 2005 (ref
B). He said he considered Uganda's pronouncements as an
attempt to interfere in Congolese affairs.


5. (C) MONUC officials similarly downplayed the influence and
strength of ADF-NALU. MONUC Chief Intelligence Officer Lt.
Col. George Coutts told us April 9 that ADF-NALU has perhaps
500 to 1,500 fighters in the Grand Nord region of North Kivu,
northeast of Beni toward the borders with Uganda and Ituri
District. He confirmed FARDC assessments that the group took
heavy losses in the December 2005 fighting and has not been
particularly active since. He said most of the group's
members now engage in petty theft and extortion, but
otherwise do not threaten the local population. Coutts added
that as many as two-thirds of ADF-NALU members are believed
to be Congolese.


6. (C) MONUC North Kivu Brigade Chief Intelligence Officer
Colonel Mallik told us April 9 MONUC military observers in
the Grand Nord have reported only sporadic movements of small
groups (10-15 people) of suspected ADF-NALU members over the
past two months, none of them particularly threatening. He
said the region as a whole is now actually more stable, as
many of those displaced in the December 2005 fighting are
returning to their homes. Mallik said an early April
assessment mission in the Grand Nord found that nearly 75
percent of the 11,000 estimated displaced families in the
area have returned home.


7. (C) Comment: ADF-NALU forces have not posed a credible
threat to Congolese or Ugandan interests since the group took

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heavy losses in December 2005. While Congolese officials
would downplay the potential danger the group poses because
the FARDC lacks the capability to eliminate it, MONUC's
assessment of ADF-NALU's relative weakness appears more
reliable and accurate. GOU pronouncements indicate that
Kampala thinks otherwise. Some Congolese authorities, who of
course have their own agendas, claim that Uganda's recent
sabre-rattling may be connected to: the Group of Experts'
investigation into Ugandan arms trafficking; the discovery of
Ugandan-supplied weapons in an arms cache belonging to former
Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba (ref C); the disarmament of
Ituri's militias (ref D),long believed to have been
supported by certain Ugandan actors outside GOU control. End
comment.
MEECE