JAMAICA: "SISTER P" MARKS ONE YEAR AS PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000434

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (RBUDDEN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SOCI ECON ENRG KCOR JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: "SISTER P" MARKS ONE YEAR AS PRIME
MINISTER

REF: A. 92 KINGSTON 2998

B. 06 KING 0402

C. 06 KINGSTON 1286

D. 06 KINGSTON 1298

E. 06 KINGSTON 1342

F. 06 KINGSTON 1579

G. KINGSTON 0089

H. KINGSTON 0215

I. KINGSTON 0393

J. 06 KINGSTON 2189

K. 06 KINGSTON 2021

L. KINGSTON 0342

M. KINGSTON 0413

N. 03 KINGSTON 0991

O. KINGSTON 0158

P. KINGSTON 0186

Classified By: AMB Brenda LaGrange Johnson for Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Portia Simpson Miller (PSM),the unelected
Prime Minister of Jamaica, rose to the head of the ruling
People's National Party (PNP) last February. As PNP leader,
she replaced the retiring elected Prime Minister P.J.
Patterson to become the country's first female Prime Minister
on March 30, 2006. During the past year, however, PSM has
been rocked by scandal and plagued by questions of her
overall competence, and regularly has avoided interaction
with members of the media. Additionally, her apparent
unwillingness to address corruption within the PNP has
contributed to a steady decline in her poll numbers.
Appearing to understand that she has failed to capitalize on
the sheer goodwill engendered by her rise to lead the PNP,
PSM has avoided all commitment to calling an election
(constitutionally due no later than October 2007). Whether
or not "Sister P" can retain the Prime Ministership depends
largely on her ability to rally the PNP faithful, as she has
done so skillfully in the past. End Summary.


The Birth of "Sister P"
--------------


2. (C) PSM's political career has always been full of
surprises. Born in rural St. Catherine, one of eight
children, PSM grew up in a poor, fundamentalist household.
She completed both primary and secondary school; however, her
highest level of education is a diploma in secretarial
skills. She insists that she did pass the Jamaican "O"
levels and could have attended a university if she had wanted
to. She worked as a secretary from 1965 through 1974 and was
named as the PNP candidate for a parish councilor position in
what was then a Jamaican Labour Party (JLP) stronghold.
Unexpectedly, she won and has since carried the aura of a
formidable grassroots organizer. In 1976, she ran for the
PNP against the sitting JLP in Southwest St. Andrew - another
long-standing JLP stronghold. Walking through the roughest
parts of town, meeting with anyone who would sit down with
her, she easily won the seat and cemented her reputation as
someone born of - and connected to - "the people." The
election was also notable for the number of over-votes cast.
Although no charges of ballot stuffing were filed (as the
constituency was won by a large enough margin),her
connection to corruption was born (ref A).


3. (C) By 1978, PSM was named one of four party Vice
Presidents and given the portfolio of women's affairs. She
also was named parliamentary secretary in the Office of the
Prime Minister that year. Despite the JLP's victory in
nation-wide elections and their return to power, she was
re-elected in 1980. Again, over-voting plagued her district,
with 106.6 percent of eligible voters casting ballots. PSM
boycotted the 1983 elections, but returned to government from
the same constituency in 1989 when the PNP returned to power.
PSM became Minister for Labor, Welfare and Sports. PSM has
been the President of the PNP Women's Movement since 1983 and
has supported equal pay for equal work, minimum wage for all
labor (particularly domestic helpers),the abolishment of
identifying children legally as "bastards," maternity leave,
and the elevation of the Bureau of Women's Affairs to
ministry level (ref A).


4. (U) Despite her accomplishments and the fact that she has
never lost an election, PSM has consistently fended off
criticism of her weak educational background by turning it to
her advantage, emphasizing her working-class roots and birth
in abject poverty. This, she argues, makes her more
accessible to all Jamaicans. Those who dwell on her lack of
education are routinely dismissed as wealthy elites who have
a strong interest in making sure the poor remain poor. Her
background has made her seem like an "anywoman" - someone who

could live next door or run a patti stand (a Jamaican
sandwich) - has spawned nicknames of endearment such as Aunti
Portia and more commonly, "Sister P."


5. (C) In February 2006, PSM's most impressive victory
unfolded when she defeated the PNP's heir apparent - Peter
Phillips - for control of the PNP and the Prime Ministership
in the wake of P.J. Patterson's retirement. Phillips is a
longtime party stalwart and was heavily favored to emerge
victorious. Her victory, another surprise, came despite the
fact that she skipped the only debate among the PNP
contenders. In fact, her last debate occurred in 1992
against Patterson when she challenged him for party
leadership (ref B). It appears that PSM learned a valuable
lesson regarding unscripted appearances, as her 1992 debate
performance was universally judged as poor.


6. (U) PSM's victory briefly united Jamaicans as they reveled
in the historic elevation of a woman to the Prime
Ministership. "It's woman time now," went the slogan. PSM's
ratings (and the PNP's) soared in response to her victory.
Her working-class background also provided a sense that she
would better understand the needs of the poor than any
previous Prime Minister.


Sister P Promises Hope for Jamaica - "Together We Can Make It"
-------------- --------------


7. (U) PSM's inaugural address on March 30, 2006, laden with
references to God, was based on hope for a new Jamaica.
Using her own life story as the backdrop to the overall
message that any Jamaican can become what they aspire to be,
the Prime Minister outlined her vision for Jamaica under her
leadership. She pledged adherence to human rights and
liberty for all, regardless of education, class, color, or
gender. This pledge stood in sharp contrast to the Prime
Ministers who came before her and as a pointed comment to
those who questioned whether her educational background had
fully prepared her for her new role. She pledged to attack
corruption and crime while increasing employment
opportunities and creating more opportunities for
wealth-creation. PSM also argued for increasing the quality
of education, stating that Jamaica will become a first-class
society only if/when Jamaica becomes an educated and
knowledge-based society. Finally, she pledged her support for
strengthening CARICOM and working closely with the JLP. She
stated that she would carry on the tradition of
consensus-building begun by P.J. Patterson and called on all
members of both parties to "...put the people's hopes and
aspirations before our own interests."


Hope Replaced by Scandal and Doubt
--------------


8. (U) PSM did not call general elections following her
elevation to Prime Minister and instead embarked on a series
of mis-steps and scandals. In June, an island-wide cement
crisis resulted in as many as 30,000 construction workers
becoming temporarily unemployed. While the tariff system
that served as an impetus for the scandal occurred prior to
her becoming Prime Minister, it was instituted by one of her
senior Cabinet members, and PSM was seen as protecting her
inner-circle from criticism instead of protecting "the
workers" she claimed to represent (ref C).


9. (C) The use (or misuse) of Petrocaribe funds has led to
allegations that Petrocaribe dollars are used as a giant
"slush" fund with little or no transparency or accountability
(refs D and E). There also have been public claims that
President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela is trying to influence the
outcome of the upcoming elections (as well as the direction
of the GOJ itself) (refs F, G and H). Perhaps sensing the
public perception, PSM deftly handled Chavez during the
latter's recent visit to Jamaica. He was denied tickets to
the opening ceremony of the Cricket World Cup (CWC) and was
only given a polite response to his request for Jamaica to
join ALBA (the Bolivian Alternative for the Americas or
Alternativa Bolivariana para las Americas) and forego the
FTAA (Free Trade Area of the Americas). Nevertheless,
allegations abound that the PNP is receiving funding almost
exclusively from Chavez for party functions, including PSM's
campaign for re-election (ref I).


10. (C) More minor scandals include an on-going probe into
irregularities in contracts with the government that was
prompted by the Whitehouse Hotel scandal (ref F). The
Director of Public Prosecutions has prepared 45 cases of
contract violations to date; more may follow. PSM also was

caught "doodling" by a cameraman during a parliamentary
debate. This, combined with her continued avoidance of press
conferences, media interviews, and the cancellation of
meetings with the EU Commissioner and the Vatican on a recent
trip to Europe has re-ignited the belief that PSM is a
"lightweight" who is not capable of effectively governing a
nation (ref J).


11. (C) Perhaps PSM's most damaging scandal has been
Trafigura. Prior to the PNP party convention, the PNP
accepted 31 million JD (approximately 475,000 USD) from
Dutch-based oil trading firm Trafigura Beheer. PSM had met
with an official of the company in NY previously. The money
subsequently was deposited in an account named CCOC - which
stood for Colin Campbell Our Candidate. Colin Campbell was
then-Minister of Information and Development. According to
the PNP, this was a campaign donation (ref K); according to
Trafigura Beheer, it was payment for future services. When
first disclosed (by JLP leader Bruce Golding),PNP again
insisted it was a donation. Gradually, the obvious could no
longer be ignored, and PNP promised to repay the money. That
repayment allegedly took place in February; however, the JLP
has questioned whether, and how, the payment was made. PNP
officials first insisted the payment was made in a
traditional way (from one bank account to another),but
Trafigura Beheer insisted it had been made by courier. Then,
no one could produce evidence that it had been made at all.
When specifically asked for documentary proof to show the
money had been returned, PSM refused to offer any details.
The Government of the Netherlands reportedly has suggested it
is willing to send investigators to Jamaica to look into the
dealings, but must have GOJ permission to enter the country;
permission has not been granted. And, while Campbell gave up
his Ministerial position, he remains in the Senate.
Recently, when Golding asked PSM to explain why Campbell
remained in the Senate, she responded, "that was within his
own guilt." This scandal will not fade away and there have
been suggestions from Golding that more damaging information
will follow (in all likelihood, whatever information remains
will be released by Golding after elections are called).

Pledges Fulfilled?
--------------


12. (U) Beyond the scandals, PSM has moved towards meeting
some of the pledges outlined in her inaugural address. She
committed herself to a market-driven economy while
maintaining the PNP's long-standing commitment to social
justice for the poor, a policy she refers to as "balancing
books while balancing lives." This, she believes, is a moral
imperative. She pledged to appoint a religious community
member to every public sector board for purposes of
"transparency" and due to her belief that "...it is from our
deep spiritual and moral base that we can develop the strong
economy..." Jamaica did maintain single-digit inflation and
witnessed a decline in interest rates in 2006.


13. (U) PSM also undertook an increase in the amount of
Government-provided services to Jamaicans. For example,
under the Inner-city Housing Programme, a total of 1086
housing units were handed out to residents in Trench Town and
Denham Town. The National Housing Trust revised its loan
terms to allow contributors to borrow against 100 percent of
their contributions. Sugar workers are being provided with
2,754 housing units. 160 new educational posts have been
created. There was a 100 percent increase in the number of
youths provided free training in the National Youth Service.
72,000 persons are now covered under the National Health Fund
with an additional 123,000 covered under the Jamaica Drugs
for the Elderly Programme. 183,000 persons participated in
the Programme for Advancement through Health and Education
(PATH),which provides conditional health and educational
grants for poor children ages 0-17. Beneficiaries are
required to make regular visits to health clinics and to
comply with 85 percent school attendance to maintain their
benefits. Finally, 27,000 Jamaicans have had water
connections to their homes.


14. (SBU) Evidence of strengthening CARICOM is more ethereal.
In preparation for the CWC, Jamaica along with other host
nations developed a common visa that allowed holders access
to any of the participating nations. This visa, however, is
only good through the CWC. The largest test for Jamaica's
aspirations in CARICOM and PSM thus far has been its ongoing
spat with Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) over the sale of
liquified natural gas (LNG). T&T originally promised to
supply LNG to Jamaica but subsequently reneged, leaving open
the possibility of Venezuela becoming the largest energy
supplier in CARICOM. PSM had personally traveled to T&T in
May 2006 to cement the deal for LNG, making T&T's withdrawal

a personal failure for PSM (ref L)


15. (C) Most disappointing of all is her performance (or
lack therefore) on combating crime and corruption. While the
murder rate did drop in 2006, the first few months of 2007
have been alarming. January witnessed an increase in murders
with a particularly disturbing number of police being killed.
On-going murders have captured the public's attention based
on their sheer shock value (such as a two-year-old being
killed) or their notoriety (Pakistan's cricket coach was
murdered following his teams elimination from the CWC, ref
M). Coupled with crime are the allegations of corruption at
the highest levels of government - including the close
association of criminals with members of the PNP, including
PSM. From her first election, PSM has been linked to
corruption. The long-standing collaboration between
political parties and "dons" has been well documented (ref
N). Allegations of "vote-buying" at the PNP national
convention (which saw the election of PSM as leader of the
PNP) are tame compared to the most recent suggestions of
corruption. Golding has alleged that any monies used to
repay Trafigura were obtained surreptitiously from Venzuela.


16. (C) Peter Phillips - PSM's one-time rival for party
control and now the Minister of National Security - has
undertaken a plan to attack the dons or, at least, selective
dons. In particular, Phillips appears to be targeting those
criminals more closely associated with PSM than with other
PNP members. The unintended consequence may well be to push
PSM closer to Venezuela and cash gifts from Hugo Chavez (used
to finance the upcoming election) (ref O).


COMMENT AND ANALYSES
--------------


17. (C) What a difference a year makes. PSM has watched her
poll numbers steadily fall to a point where her PNP is in a
dead heat with the JLP in popular support. (Although JLP
leader Bruce Golding noted to DAS Duddy on a recent visit to
Washington that the JLP is now 8 points ahead of PNP, this
number has not been published). The responsibility for this
drop rests largely with PSM. She is widely seen as being
more willing to protect her inner-circle than ordinary
Jamaicans, despite her image as a woman of the people. The
cement scandal saw PSM out front defending Industry,
Commerce, Science, and Technology Minister Philip Paulwell
instead of working towards a fair resolution that protected
industry, consumers, and construction workers. In Trafigura,
PSM has the power to oust Colin Campbell from the Senate, yet
she doesn't seem to want to even offer verbal criticism of
him. The protection of her inner-circle is a long-standing
charge. This charge is more potent when those she protects
are also linked to corruption and criminal enterprise.


18. (C) The inner-workings of PSM and her circle have come to
light via Golding. He has told the Ambassador that a
Phillips supporter in the inner circles of the PNP regularly
feeds him confidential information. If true, this
information supports earlier assessments that the PNP is
still split over who should lead the party and further
bolsters post's earlier report that, irrespective of which
party wins the upcoming election, there may be an intra-party
battle for control of the PNP (ref P). Post believes that
the JLP will report more incriminating information publicly
following the announcement of the elections, including more
damaging information on Trafigura.


19. (C) When that election will be called, however, is still
a mystery. Currently, the chattering classes have placed
their money on June or July - if the West Indies make it at
least to the semi-final round of the CWC. PSM's failure to
capitalize on her popularity and goodwill following her
elevation to Prime Minister is not a mistake she is likely to
repeat. A semi-final finish will negate some of the failings
of Jamaica's staging of the CWC, including the lingering
feeling that the country could ill-afford the monetary outlay
for cricket facilities, roads, the airports, et. al.
Granted, the successful opening ceremony at Trelawny on March
11 confounded expectations and filled many Jamaicans with
pride. However, against a backdrop of failing schools and
the continued crumbling of infrastructure, the CWC looks to
some like a luxury intended to impress foreigners. In
addition, the much-touted "One Love" Village - an area for
music events, small businesses, crafts vendors, etc. - has
failed to attract tourists. The GOJ currently is scrambling
to find a way to reimburse the vendors who purchased booths
for the event. Finally, attendance for the CWC games has
been unremarkable - except for games in which the West Indies
are playing; most games have been played for audiences of

less than 3,000. This is coupled with recent reports that
tourism arrivals have fallen during the CWC. On balance, the
CWC does not appear to be the financial windfall that PSM had
hoped.


19. (C) The PNP has remained in office since 1989. This,
ultimately, may be the only fact that will weigh on voters'
minds when deciding PSM's fate. Poloff recently discussed a
variety of issues with three working-level PNP members
including Karen Cross, Joseph "Bunny" Witter (perennial PNP
candidate against Golding),and Randy Mair (in charge of PR
and fundraising for the PNP in the Corporate area). Cross
had recently delineated concerns among PNP party faithful on
PSM's future (ref P). During this meeting, all agreed that
Jamaica does not have anything akin to an "independent"
voter. Instead, they have "undecided voters," i.e., voters
who have a party affiliation, but routinely change depending
on their assessment of which party will "deliver the most
goods." According to Cross, 13 to 14 percent of the
population (close to 20 constituencies in the rural area)
fall into this category. While neither the PNP nor the JLP
will need to put in anything more than token campaign efforts
in most constituencies, they will need to spend considerable
money and time in these undecided constituencies. Witter
noted that these undecided voters must be shrewdly handled by
party candidates saying "dem should get piece of cow, not the
whole cow." Witter pointed out that in the past, party
officials have given many things to undecided voters.
Eventually, the voter decides that the party can't give them
anything more, so they switch to a new party. Witter said
that the danger of the undecided voter was more acute now, as
the PNP has been in power for 17 years and has given away
most of what it can.


20. (C) Despite the scandals, the questionable record of
accomplishments, the ongoing corruption, and "PNP-fatigue,"
PSM may well emerge victorious. Her political history is one
of winning as an underdog. She should never have won her
first election - deep in the heart of JLP territory. She
should never have continued to win. She never should have
won the leadership of the PNP. Yet, she has emerged
victorious in all elections she has contested. She avoids
the media, avoids specifics, and performs her duties in a way
that lends credibility to charges that she does not possess
the mental faculties needed to run a nation. However, her
personal story and charisma consistently have trumped these
charges, leading her to victory by wide margins. Her
connection to "the people" can never be underestimated. A
handshake, a hug, and a walk in the most
economically-deprived areas keeps her in power and keeps
ordinary Jamaicans convinced of "Sister P's" power to deliver
them from hardship.
JOHNSON