JAMAICA/VENEZUELA: FORMER PRIME MINISTER WARNS OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000215

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (RANDALL BUDDEN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR ECON SOCI CARICOM KCOR JM
VZ, CU, XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA/VENEZUELA: FORMER PRIME MINISTER WARNS OF
CHAVEZ'S INFLUENCE IN IMPENDING NATIONAL ELECTIONS

REF: A. 06 KINGSTON 2251

B. 06 KINGSTON 2021

C. KINGSTON 89

D. KINGSTON 158

E. KINGSTON 133

Classified By: Ambassador Brenda L. Johnson, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------

1.(C) In impending national elections, the opposition
Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has "good reason to fear"
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's provision of cash to fund
the reelection campaign of current Prime Minister (PM) Portia
Simpson Miller (PSM),according to former PM Edward Seaga.
In his estimate:

-- PSM will call elections if the upcoming Cricket World Cup
(CWC) series and/or the Government's budget presentation in
April/May lift the spirits of the electorate; if not, she
will delay until the end of the year.

-- With its formidable public relations machinery, PSM's
ruling People's National Party (PNP) may well come from
behind to defeat the JLP.

-- a terrorist attack against the upcoming CWC is unlikely;
transportation difficulties between Kingston and Jamaica's
north coast are a greater worry.

-- Venezuela is "moving in the direction of bitterness among
the people, who face shortages of the basics."
End Summary.

2.(SBU) Edward Seaga served as the Member of Parliament
(MP) for Western Kingston for nearly 43 years, as Leader of
the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) from 1974 until 2005, and as
Prime Minister (PM) 1980-89. He is widely credited with
having stabilized the Jamaican economy in the 1980s after
years of high inflation and deficits. Still alert and active
at 77, Seaga remains highly influential among JLP supporters.
Ambassador (accompanied by Poloff) paid a courtesy call on
February 9 in his office on the Mona Campus of the University
of the West Indies (UWI),of which he is one of only four
Distinguished Fellows.

3.(SBU) Seaga began by expressing satisfaction that the
Peace Corps was celebrating its 45th anniversary, noting that
he had played a role in bringing the first volunteers to
Jamaica back in 1962; for decades the organization had done
superb work in the country, and he wished it might receive
more recognition from the media. The Ambassador observed
that the last year had been an eventful one in Jamaica, with
a new PM and Governor General taking office, preparations for
the upcoming Cricket World Cup (CWC) series underway, and
widespread speculation about the timing of national elections
(which must be held within the next year).

Impending National Elections
--------------

4.(C) Seaga said Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller (PSM)
had had a brief "window of opportunity" to call elections for
February, but that she now was unlikely to do so until after
the conclusion of CWC in April. Historically, he observed,
in order to capitalize on the "feel good factor" in the
nation, PNP (People's National Party) governments had called
elections in the wake of major successful events. However,
whether CWC would generate such feelings was uncertain: this
would depend on the performance of the West Indies team, the
economic benefits derived from hosting the series, and
whether it all had gone smoothly. The Government also might
shape its budget presentation in April/May to generate public
gratitude, and then call elections in June. But if neither
CWC nor the budget presentation lifted the spirits of the
electorate, PSM would delay the elections as long as
possible. Seaga said the most recent polls showing the JLP
2-3 points ahead of the PNP in popularity "don't count too
much." He recalled that in 2002 the JLP had been ahead until
June, but that the PNP Government had used a massive World
Youth Cup Festival in July to boost its standing-- and then
had gone on to win the elections. At present, the JLP should
be further ahead; at least a ten-point lead was needed. The
JLP had used a huge annual conference (Reftel A) and
revelation of the Trafigura scandal (Reftel B) to boost its
support. However, with its formidable public relations
machinery, the PNP might well come from behind to win the
elections; they had done so before.

Chavez Providing Cash to PNP?
--------------

5.(C) In response to Ambassador's inquiry regarding JLP
Leader Bruce Golding's recent allegations that Venezuela's
Hugo Chavez was providing cash to finance the PNP's
reelection campaign (Reftels C, D),Seaga said Golding "had
good reason to fear this." In socialist societies, no
distinction was drawn between the government and the ruling
political party; donations thus flowed easily. Chavez wanted
to broaden Venezuela's influence in the Caribbean, but this
was not a new policy: he himself had faced the same problem
back in 1980, when Carlos Andres Perez (CAP) had funneled
support to PM Michael Manley (fortunately, CAP had been out
of power before the Jamaican elections). A strong interest
in the Caribbean had been part of Venezuela's foreign policy
for decades.

6.(C) In response to the Ambassador's observation that much
of the available information regarding Cuba's Fidel Castro
seemed to come from Chavez these days, Seaga noted that the
latter had an interest in portraying himself as an ally and
close confidant of the former. Venezuela now was "moving in
the direction of bitterness among the people, who face
shortages of the basics." Interestingly, Seaga then
described a recurring pattern among authoritarian socialist
regimes: (a) as in Zimbabwe, misguided economic policies
eventually led to chronic shortages; (b) then, the ruling
party blamed shopkeepers and merchants for "sabotaging the
revolution;" (c) the regime then used this "sabotage" as a
pretext to justify further political repression and amass
more power.

Crime and Tourism
--------------

7.(SBU) Ambassador then inquired about the alarming rise in
Jamaica's murder rate over recent months. Seaga pointed out
that, historically, whenever the police had focused special
attention and cracked down on crime in Kingston, the
criminals quickly had moved to other areas of the country;
this pattern now was being repeated. The Ambassador noted
that some 72 percent of Jamaica's tourists were from the
U.S., and the police needed to curb crime to avoid serious
disruption of the vital tourism industry. Seaga observed
that "in Jamaica there always has been an underlying
understanding: don't interfere with tourism;" this was why
few serious crimes were committed against tourists.

Cricket World Cup (CWC)
--------------

8.(U) Ambassador then mentioned that the U.S., U.K., and
Canada were cooperating with the Caribbean nations in
counter-terrorism preparations for CWC. Seaga said he didn't
"see the motive for terrorism;" the logistics of a terrorist
attack would be difficult, and there would be "only limited
damage to the U.S." He was more concerned about the
difficulties and delays that many fans would face in
traveling back and forth between Kingston and the Jamaica's
north coast: from Montego Bay, it may take up to five hours
to reach Kingston's Sabina Park stadium; this would cause
great frustration among visitors. In his view, a ring road
around Montego Bay should have been completed long ago, but
certainly in preparation for CWC. Ambassador said she had
enjoyed her recent visit to the new stadium in Sabina Park,
which was most impressive. Seaga wondered how the new
Trelawny stadium would be used after CWC; Ambassador noted
she had discussed this question recently with former PM P.J.
Patterson (Reftel E),and that perhaps it could become a
multi-purpose facility. Seaga said he recently had suggested
to the Spanish Ambassador that the Trelawny stadium be used
as a soccer camp by visiting Spanish trainers in order to
improve the level of play among teams in the north of the
island.
JOHNSON