Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KINGSTON186
2007-02-07 16:52:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kingston
Cable title:  

JAMAICA: PRIME MINISTER'S POPULARITY FADES AMONG

Tags:  PGOV PINR PREL SOCI ECON SNAR KCOR JM XL 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0033
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKG #0186/01 0381652
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 071652Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4292
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000186 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (RBUDDEN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SOCI ECON SNAR KCOR JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: PRIME MINISTER'S POPULARITY FADES AMONG
PARTY LOYALISTS

REF: A. 06 KINGSTON 402


B. 04 KINGSTON 1259

C. 04 KINGSTON 1342

Classified By: DCM James T. Heg for Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000186

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (RBUDDEN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SOCI ECON SNAR KCOR JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: PRIME MINISTER'S POPULARITY FADES AMONG
PARTY LOYALISTS

REF: A. 06 KINGSTON 402


B. 04 KINGSTON 1259

C. 04 KINGSTON 1342

Classified By: DCM James T. Heg for Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).

1.(U) SUMMARY: A long-time People's National Party (PNP)
operative A) reports widespread disillusion with PNP leader
and Prime Minister Portia Simpson-Miller (PSM); and B)
predicts that when general elections are called
(constitutionally due in October),unless the PNP wins at
least 40 of the 60 seats in Parliament (they currently hold
34),PSM will face an internal party leadership challenge.
END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) Poloff met with Karen Cross on February 5 to discuss
internal PNP dynamics. Cross is a long-time PNP organizer
and party-insider who has developed and maintained a
long-standing relationship with the Embassy. Cross supported
current Minister of Finance Omar Davies during the PNP
internal elections in his bid to replace party leader and
former Prime Minister P.J. Patterson (ref A). Despite the
loss of Davies to PSM, Cross fully supported PSM and has
continued her work for both PSM and the PNP. In previous
meetings with poloff, Cross has maintained her enthusiastic
support of PSM and has defended her against all allegations
raised by opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader Bruce
Golding and the media. During this meeting, however, Cross'
enthusiasm for PSM clearly had evaporated.


3. (SBU) Cross reported that there is widespread
disappointment with PSM among both party loyalists and
current PNP Members of Parliament (MPs); during a recent
National Executive Council (NEC) meeting of the PNP, party
members of the PNP had walked out of PSM's two hour speech
and that the room was nearly empty by the time she had
finished. Cross said that the speech itself was dedicated to
two topics: an attack against Golding and a defense of her

foreign travel (NOTE: PSM has been criticized in the media
for spending nearly 10 million USD on foreign travel in the
last year). Cross noted that the PNP are tired of her
attacks against Golding stating "whenever Portia opens her
mouth, bile about Golding spills forth."


4. (SBU) Cross explained that the middle-class members of the
PNP had generally put aside their differences with and
suspicions of PSM after her election to party leader. These
PNP party faithful believed that PSM was "too socialist" and
"too uneducated" to effectively serve as Prime Minister.
However, in the one year since her election they believe that
she has accomplished nothing to improve Jamaica, the
government, or the party itself. Cross stated that it is
"unforgivable that in all these years Portia's been in
government, she hasn't bothered to learn how government
operates." PNP members, according to Cross, have returned to
their original belief that PSM does not have the mental
ability to effectively serve as either a party leader or as
the Prime Minister.


5. (SBU) Cross has maintained in past meetings with poloff
that the delay in holding general elections has been a result
of PSM wanting to make sure the right people were running in
the right constituencies. This time, however, Cross stated
that the delay in calling elections is due to PSM's fear that
the PNP will lose, and she will, consequently, lose all
power. Cross reported that PSM may lose power irrespective
of general election victory or defeat: should the PNP fail to
win 40 seats in the next general election, party members may
mount an internal war against PSM. (COMMENT: Winning
two-thirds of the seats may be impossible, given the nearly
50-50 split in public support between the PNP and JLP).
Although a Davies supporter, Cross said that the most likely
challenger will be current Minister of National Security
Peter Phillips who, like Davies, sought to succeed P.J.
Patterson (ref A). Cross also suggested that there were some
PNP loyalists who hope that the party will lose the general
elections so that the party could avoid an internal battle
for power all together believing PSM would either step down
voluntarily or be easily ousted.


COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) Cross has spent her adult life organizing and
campaigning for the PNP. She has traveled all over Jamaica
to support her party. This year, however, she reported that
she will confine her campaign activities to St. Thomas
(Western) in her effort to oust current JLP MP James
Robertson who, she alleged, is a drug trafficker and money

launderer (ref B and C). (NOTE: She also alleged that JLP
candidate for Portland (Western) Daryl Vaz is also a drug
trafficker). Cross' openness regarding her dissatisfaction
with PSM is highly unusual for her. She seems particularly
concerned that the PNP is in danger of losing its vision and
its path under PSM. She also voiced her concern that the
formerly dominate PNP is losing supporters to the JLP. In
particular, Cross is troubled by the willingness of PNP
members to lose a general election in order to get rid of
PSM. Openly discussing the walk-out of PNP members during a
PSM speech is also highly unusual for Cross. Her willingness
to discuss the PNP's internal problems may indicate the
problems within the party are much deeper and more persistent
than the chattering classes realize. An additional blow to
PSM may come following the Cricket World Cup (CWC);
infrastructure repair and improvement for the upcoming event
have lagged far behind schedule. The British Deputy High
Commissioner has reported that major improvements at Norman
Manley International Airport in Kingston aren't scheduled to
begin until the end of February (the CWC starts at the
beginning of March). Short of the West Indies winning the
CWC (unlikely),or PSM undertaking a major government
initiative or reform, her tenure as the first female Prime
Minister of Jamaica may come to an end much sooner than most
expected.


Biographic Background on Karen Cross
--------------


7. (SBU) Karen Cross is a long-time Embassy contact. She
has a history of aggressive visa requests; however, she has
not approached emboffs in the last year with specific
requests. She has been a member of the PNP her entire adult
life. She is unmarried and has one daughter and one
grandson. She comes from a large family (5 sisters and 2
brothers). Both brother are dead - one died when he was
caught in cross-fire between two warring gangs. The other
brother died from HIV/AIDS. She lives with one sister and a
collection of nieces and nephews. Her other four sisters
live overseas (in the U.S. and U.K.). She works tirelessly
to make sure her nieces and nephews receive the best
education in Jamaica.


8. (SBU) Cross is not highly educated herself and speaks with
a medium-thick accent and intersperses Patois with English.
She does not hide her opinions on any topic and has been
generally reliable with information. She is well-versed on
American politics and is familiar with all the current
candidates and current political issues. She is a
self-professed fan of "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and
"The Colbert Report" noting that both satirical programs are
often better able to capture the essence of political
dialogue in the U.S. than the mainstream media. Unlike most
PNP members, she openly admires President Bush. She
disagrees with his policies; however, she admires and
respects what she terms his directness and beliefs, noting
"when im makes is mind up, im stick wit it." She hopes
Hillary Clinton becomes the next President.
HEG