JAMAICA: OPPOSITION LABOUR PARTY ON COURSE TO VICTORY IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 001326

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (JOE TILGHMAN)
INL (KBROWN)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI ECON ASEC CPAS SNAR KCOR JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: OPPOSITION LABOUR PARTY ON COURSE TO VICTORY IN
SEPTEMBER 3 NATIONAL ELECTION?

REF: KINGSTON 1288 (232000Z AUG 07)

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The passage of Hurricane Dean has failed to dampen the
momentum of the Jamaica Labor Party (JLP),with Opposition Spokesman
on Information Dwight Nelson predicting a landslide victory. Nelson
told EmbOff that the People's National Party (PNP)'s attempt to gain
lost ground through hurricane related handouts will fail, as the die
has been cast. The JLP will be even more buoyed by latest opinion
polls, which show the JLP moving ahead of the PNP. A number of
analysts also have predicted a win for the JLP, given its superior
election campaign. But despite the apparent odds, campaign member
and former youth leader of the PNP Basil Waite maintains his Party
will be returned to office. While his position may reflect bias, no
one should write off the PNP: the Party has a history of coming from
behind to win. End summary.

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Hurricane Will Not Disrupt Victory
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2.(SBU) In the wake of Hurricane Dean, the Opposition Jamaica Labor
Party (JLP) is certain it will reap electoral success when all the
votes have been count on the evening of September 3. This
confidence initially was subdued, as the JLP worried about losing
momentum if the election were postponed well beyond the original
date of August 27. In fact, Opposition Spokesman on Information
Dwight Nelson told EmbOff that while the hurricane had not altered
the standings, it had slowed his party's momentum. He said that not
even the PNP's attempts to use the hurricane relief efforts to score
political points would work this time around, as people had come to
expect this kind of response after a disaster. "The whole element
of surprise is therefore missing," Nelson continued. The JLP
spokesman claimed the die had been cast, and not much would change
in the days leading up to the elections. He said the JLP would
spend the remaining days on the ground meeting with small groups and
tightening its organization.

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Perceived PNP Disunity and Polls Buoy JLP
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3.(SBU) The JLP's confidence also has been boosted by reports of
disunity in the senior ranks of the PNP. Andrew Holness, Opposition
Spokesman on Education, told EmbOff that one segment of the PNP, led
by Prime Minister Portia Simpson-Miller (PSM),made a valiant
attempt to have the election postponed long enough to make up lost
ground. He said PSM's efforts were only thwarted by the opposition
of senior Cabinet members led by Omar Davies, Peter Phillips, and
Maxine Henry-Wilson. Holness said this is not surprising, given
that, in addition to being battle worn and wanting to see an end to
electioneering, this grouping of the intelligentsia traditionally
has been opposed to PSM leading the party. Additionally, the JLP is
pleased with the 72.2 percent voter turnout by members of the
security forces and election workers, who voted on August 28; it is
not lost on the Opposition Party that a surge in voter turnout is an
indication the ruling PNP is in trouble (Note: In the last four
decades, no ruling party has won an election when voter turnout has
exceeded 70 percent. End Note.).

4.(SBU) The JLP will be even more buoyed by the results of the
latest opinion polls, particularly the one conducted by newspaper
and PNP internal pollster Bill Johnson. While Johnson consistently
has suggested that the momentum was with the JLP, his polls also
consistently have shown the party lagging behind the PNP. However,
his latest results show the JLP surging ahead. For the first time,
his polls also show that Opposition Leader Bruce Golding has moved
ahead of PSM as the person best suited to lead the country. Another
pollster reports a statistical dead heat, while yet another predicts
a landslide victory for the JLP. It is this poll which appears to
resonate most with the JLP; of Jamaica's 60 parliamentary seats,
Nelson's conservative estimate of the JLP's total has increased from
34 a month ago to 40. He said the poll results are no surprise, as
the JLP is gaining traction among younger voters and formerly
disenchanted JLP supporters. As far as Holness is concerned, the
PNP already has maximized support among its hard core, and will not
get much more going forward.

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Analysts Also Predicting JLP Win
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5. But the single biggest boost for the JLP seems to be coming from

KINGSTON 00001326 002 OF 002


analysts, who think only a huge blunder can change the JLP's course
to victory. Many analysts are united in the view that the PNP has
surrendered the election to the JLP because of its strategic
mismanagement of the campaign. The branding of the once popular PSM
as the face of the PNP, and the ruling party's use of the "not
changing course" slogan in the face of glaring problems such as high
crime and unemployment and low growth, have been identified as
fundamental errors. Perceptions of disunity following the bitter
internal elections 19 months ago have only served to exacerbate the
challenges. The bungling associated with the enactment of the state
of emergency following the hurricane and the divisiveness
surrounding the new date for the election also have been
highlighted. According to the analysts, the issue of incumbency,
and the prospect of the PNP extending its time in office to 23
years, is also a major militating factor.


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But PNP Not Perturbed
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6. Yet the PNP does not appear to be disturbed, at least publicly,
by the turn of events. In fact, the Party has beefed up its
advertising campaign in the last week, and now is matching or
outstripping the JLP for media coverage. Basil Waite, former PNP
youth leader and current campaign organizer, told EmbOff that he is
not perturbed by the apparent popularity of the JLP, and by all
indications his Party will be returned to office on September 3.
When asked about the polls, Waite said they had been monitoring the
trends and he therefore had not been surprised that the JLP had
moved ahead. That said, he thought this would only give the JLP a
psychological boost, for which the PNP had prepared. However,
Waite's position on the poll was not supported by campaign organizer
Danny Roberts of the PNP affiliated National Workers Union.
According to Roberts, Bill Johnson, the PNP internal pollster, lacks
credibility because of his poor track record in Bahamas and St.
Lucia. Roberts said that the party has done 77 constituency polls,
and the clear trend is a swing to the PNP. He said the PNP was on
track to recapture or surpass its 34 seats in Parliament. He even
downplayed the impact of the hurricane, despite admitting the slow
pace of the relief effort.

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Comment
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7.(SBU) From all indications, the JLP appears to be running a well
organized and strategic campaign, based on a clear message of
change. This message appears to resonate with the electorate, and
thus it is not surprising that the polls show younger voters, in
particular, gravitating toward the JLP, putting it in the
ascendancy. Unlike previous campaigns, in this one the JLP also
appears firmly united around its leader and, in a strange turn of
events, the traditionally more united PNP shows signs of
divisiveness. Against this background, unless the JLP makes a huge
blunder going forward, the momentum apparently will continue in its
favor. Nevertheless, with the PNP pumping up its election machinery
and with hurricane relief efforts improving, only a brave soul would
write off the PNP: the Party has a history of coming from behind at
the last moment to win. This time, the PNP's proverbial nine lives
will be severely tested; no ruling party has been able to win a
majority in any election following a hurricane.
End Comment.

HEG