JAMAICA: KEY FIGURES PREDICT OPPOSITION LABOUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 001317

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS TO EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE

DEPT ALSO PASS TO CENTRAL AMERICAN CARIBBEAN BASIN COLLECTIVE

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (JOE TILGHMAN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC PINR ECON SOCI EFIN KCOR JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: KEY FIGURES PREDICT OPPOSITION LABOUR
PARTY TO WIN SEPTEMBER 3 ELECTION; LATEST OPINION POLL
RESULTS BEAR THEM OUT

REF: A. KINGSTON 1288 (232000Z AUG 07)


B. KINGSTON 1193 (021929Z AUG 07)

C. KINGSTON 1301 (291156Z AUG 07)

Classified By: Charge' James T. Heg, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
--------------

1.(C) Bruce Golding's Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is poised
to defeat Prime Minister (PM) Portia Simpson Miller (PSM)'s
ruling People's National Party (PNP) in elections on
September 3, thus regaining power after 18 years in
Opposition, according to both a key veteran JLP Senator and
one of the country's most respected economic analysts and
editorialists. Presciently, the latter predicted a
forthcoming opinion poll would show the JLP ahead, and was
vindicated on August 30, when a survey published by the
"Jamaica Gleaner" newspaper showed the Opposition party had
opened up a 4-point lead in the fiercely contested race
(septel). End Summary.

Senior Opposition JLP Senator confident of victory, but not
complacent
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2.(C) Over a private luncheon with PolOff on August 28, the
Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP)'s business
spokesperson, Senator Anthony Johnson, a veteran political
operative and key advisor in the Party's campaign for
national elections to be held September 3, made the following
observations:

(A) The JLP now was convinced it had "sewn up" 34 of Jamaica
s 60 parliamentary constituencies, and had a chance of
victory in 12 others. The election thus would yield a JLP
government with anything from a narrow (34) to very strong
(46) majority in Parliament.

(B) While he saw little chance that Prime Minister (PM)
Portia Simpson Miller (PSM)'s ruling People's National Party
(PNP) could regain momentum in the final days of the
campaign, the Opposition could not afford complacency. He
recalled all too well that, in the three previous consecutive
elections, the JLP had run effective campaigns and been
confident of victories, only to have the PNP surge ahead in
the home stretches.

(C) In his view, the risk of violence had grown in recent
weeks. The PNP now recognized that momentum favored the
Opposition; after 18 years in power, the ruling Party's
grass-roots supporters and rogue elements faced an imminent
loss of perks and privileges. Particularly in marginal PNP
constituencies which the JLP might capture, outbreaks of
post-election violence were likely.

(D) In the aftermath of Hurricane Dean (Reftel A),the JLP
had adjusted its campaign effort to focus on smaller groups
which may have suffered damages or losses. He believed this
strategy had been effective.

(E) Pervasive corruption had been a problem in Jamaica for
many years, but had yet to resonate with the electorate as a
high priority; therefore, the JLP's campaign had not dwelt
upon it. However, once in power, Golding would do his utmost
to clean up crooked contracting and other government abuses.


Respected economist believes JLP has held the lead for over a
month
-------------- --------------

3.(C) Respected economic analyst, editorialist, and leading
figure in the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce and Private Sector
of Jamaica (PSOJ) Keith Collister shared his views with
PolOff over lunch the next day. Collister began by
predicting that, in the upcoming election, the JLP would
capture 37-40 seats. Momentum definitely had shifted in the
Opposition's favor, and this shift actually had occurred
several months ago. He doubted the objectivity and
impartiality of recent polls showing the two parties in a
statistical dead heat, and was convinced the JLP enjoyed a
solid lead. He expected the next Stone poll, scheduled to
appear in the "Jamaica Gleaner" on August 30, to reveal that
the JLP had gained further ground: in order to retain their


credibility, the pollsters had a vested interest in ensuring
that their final surveys before Election Day were as accurate
as possible.

5.(C) Even as we spoke, Collister received cellular phone
calls from economist and editorialist John Rapley and from
PSOJ Chairman Chris Zacca asking whether, through his
editorial connections with the "Gleaner," he might have any
inside information regarding the Stone poll to be released
the next day; Collister replied that he had no inside
information, but nevertheless had little doubt the new survey
would reflect a further strengthening of JLP support.

JLP's Plans for Economy
--------------

6.(C) In other areas, Collister made the following
observations:

(A) The JLP manifesto's economic proposals for deficit
reduction, debt realignment, increased foreign investment,
and full independence for the Bank of Jamaica to set monetary
policy (reftels B,C) were right on target.

(B) He was very concerned about the long-term effects of
"CashPlus" and other Ponzi schemes operating in Jamaica.
Thousands of lower income people were being lured into
investing their meager savings. When, inevitably, this scam
eventually collapsed, widespread unrest could ensue; the risk
of violence would be even greater than on Election Day.

(C) The potential collapse of such Ponzi scams, together with
a slowing U.S. economy and diminishing growth in remittances
to Jamaica, made the economic outlook very doubtful. He
expected continued pressure on the Jamaican dollar.

(D) He was a proponent, and indeed among the architects, of
plans to establish an international financial services center
as part of the restoration of Kingston's waterfront.
Jamaica's international center would be modeled on that of
Ireland, and well-regulated; the JLP had no intention of
setting up a shady offshore sector.
HEG