JAMAICA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP NO. 4

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 001252

SIPDIS

SIPDIS, SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (KHARNE/RBUDDEN)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI ECON ASEC CPAS SNAR KCOR JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP NO. 4

REF: KINGSTON 1194 (021929Z AUG 07)

Summary and Analysis
--------------

1.(SBU) In this fourth round-up of election-related developments:

-- Leaders debate social, economic, and leadership issues;

-- On balance, an election still too close to call;

-- Sporadic violence continues, as Director of Elections warns of
possible postponements in two volatile constituencies;

-- Risk of an even 30/30 split of parliamentary seats?

-- Wild cards: Candidates not having renounced U.S. citizenship
could face disqualifications from Parliament.

2.(SBU) Large-scale, orchestrated political violence of the kind
which plagued the 1980 campaign, during which hundreds were killed,
remains unlikely. Nevertheless, random incidents involving
grass-roots supporters of the two parties could still escalate out
of control in some areas; this is particularly true in the
closely-contested constituencies, and, immediately after the
election results are announced the night of August 27, in those
which may change hands. After 18 years in power, if the PNP loses,
its grass-roots supporters in some constituencies are unlikely to
slip quietly into the night.
End Summary and Analysis.

First Debate:
Phillips projects steadiness on social issues
--------------

3.(SBU) Minister of National Security and Vice President of the
ruling People's National Party (PNP) Dr. Peter Phillips is generally
perceived to have won the first of three debates to be held in the
run-up to the August 27 national election. In a forum focusing on
social issues and broadcast nationally the evening of August 8, the
telegenic Phillips bested Dr. Ken Baugh, the opposition Jamaica
Labour Party (JLP)'s shadow cabinet minister for Health and the
Environment. Health, education, crime, and job creation were the
principal themes. Phillips stoutly defended the PNP's 18-year
record, acknowledging that much remained to be done but maintaining
that the PNP continued to make steady progress. Baugh, a
universally respected physician, decried the poor state of Jamaica's
health services and schools, while Phillips dismissed the JLP's
manifesto proposals for free health care and abolition of school
tuition fees as fiscally irresponsible.

Second Debate:
Shaw persuasively outlines Opposition's economic plan
-------------- --------------

4.(SBU) Minister of Finance Dr. Omar Davies and JLP shadow minister
of finance and public service Audley Shaw squared off on economic
issues the evening of August 10. Shaw persuasively outlined the
JLP's proposals to:

-- attract international investment to create jobs, enhance
productivity, and boost Jamaica's anemic growth to 6-10 percent;

-- improve debt and deficit management, to include full cooperation
with the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank;

-- root out endemic corruption in government contracting;

-- abolish hospital user and education tuition fees;

-- dismantle the Ministry of Local Government.

5.(SBU) For his part, Davies seemed uncharacteristically lackluster
as he:

-- emphasized the PNP's success in bringing inflation under
control;

-- insisted the country already was on track for higher growth and
productivity;

-- dismissed Opposition proposals on health and education as "wild
promises" that would necessitate more taxes and/or borrowing.

Final Debate:
Opposition Leader outshines Prime Minister
--------------

6.(SBU) JLP Leader Bruce Golding turned in one of his more

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impressive performances within memory in debating the charismatic
PSM the evening of August 11. Armed with a formidable arsenal of
facts and figures, and projecting an image of confidence and calm
commitment, Golding:

-- objectively depicted Jamaica's anemic growth, high unemployment
and crime, endemic corruption, and heavy debt burden after 18 years
of PNP rule;

-- convincingly outlined the JLP's strategies "to lead Jamaica out
of this slump," with emphasis on attracting investment and
stimulating growth by reducing the debt burden. ((Note: Septel will
compare the recently-released manifestos of the two major parties.
End Note.))

7.(SBU) PSM derided the Opposition's health and education
proposals, claiming that "this new Jamaica has no time to waste on
wild experiments....there is no time to listen to negative voices."
She reiterated her claim "to balance the books, and also to balance
people's lives," and depicted Golding as unreliable because of his
history of breaking with, and subsequently returning to, the JLP.
She had difficulty in responding to the Opposition Leader's pointed
queries regarding her retention of the controversial Minster of
Industry, Technology, Energy, and Commerce Phillip Paulwell, who has
been at the center of a series of alleged imbroglios (reftel).
Addressing a group of supporters on August 13, PSM tacitly
acknowledged that she had been bested in the debate by dismissing
Golding as a "profiler," claiming that "the people of Jamaica will
be sending him into official political retirement on August 27."

On Balance: Still Too Close to Call
--------------

8.(SBU) The ruling PNP continues to hold a narrow 3.5 percentage
point lead over the opposition JLP, according to the latest
Observer/Don Anderson poll taken July 27-30. Speaking on the radio
talk show "Breakfast Club," Anderson reiterated that all signs point
to a tight race in which as many as 25 of Jamaica's 60 parliamentary
seats may be won by narrow margins. Research for the "Sunday
Gleaner" newspaper published August 12 suggests that 20 seats will
determine the outcome, of which 11 are concentrated in the central
county of Middlesex, in the parishes of St. Ann, St. Catherine, St.
Mary, Manchester, and Clarendon. Post continues to believe the race
is too close to call.

Sporadic violence; warning by Director of Elections
-------------- --------------

9.(SBU) Sporadic violence, with allegations of political
motivations, continues to mar the campaign:

(A) After a series of violent incidents in West Central St. Andrew
and South East St. Elizabeth, the respected Director of Elections
Danville Walker has warned publicly that, if he deems necessary, he
will postpone the elections in these two closely contested, volatile
constituencies. In the former, JLP incumbent Andrew Holness is
challenged by the PNP's Patrick Roberts, while in the latter the
JLP's Franklyn Witter and PNP's Norman Horne vie to succeed the
outgoing MP Lenworth Blake.

(B) In St. Thomas, Trelawney, and elsewhere across the country, a
number of recent shootings and stabbings have led to allegations and
denials between PNP and JLP supporters and/or officials that such
incidents were, or were not, politically motivated. In some cases,
rather than "politically motivated," these incidents may well have
been gang-related violence involving persons of known political
affiliations.

10.(SBU) In Post's estimate, a return to the large-scale,
orchestrated political violence that plagued the 1980 campaign,
during which hundreds were killed, remains unlikely. Nevertheless,
random violent incidents involving grass-roots supporters of the two
parties could still escalate out of control; this is particularly
the case in closely-contested constituencies, and, immediately after
the election results are announced the night of August 27, those
which may have changed hands.

A 30/30 Split?
--------------

11.(SBU) With the election widely perceived as likely to be the
closest Jamaica has seen in many years, speculation has mounted
regarding the possibility of an even split of the 60 parliamentary
seats between the PNP and JLP ((Note: the much smaller: (a) National
Democratic Movement (NDM),(b) a Rastafarian party, and (c) a
handful of independents are widely given no chance of winning seats.
End Note.)) The Constitution contains no provisions specifically
addressing a hung Parliament. The Chairman of the local observer
group Citizens for Free and Fair Elections (CAFFE),Dr. Lloyd

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Barnett, has criticized the country's leaders for neglecting to
minimize this risk by redistricting to ensure an odd number of
seats. However, Governor General Prof. Kenneth Hall has assured the
nation that, should it arise, he has (unspecified) plans for dealing
with such a contingency.

Wild Cards: Possible Disqualifications of Candidates for Parliament
who retain U.S. Citizenship?
-------------- --------------

12.(SBU) Meanwhile, media speculation has intensified concerning at
least six (6) candidates for Parliament (3 PNP, 3 JLP) who
previously may have sworn allegiance to the U.S. and have not yet
renounced such allegiance - and who thus, under Section 40 of the
Constitution, may be disqualified for membership in the House of
Representatives (or the Senate.

13.(SBU) ((Note: Post has received several inquiries from candidates
concerning renunciations of U.S. citizenship, and the Consulate
General has provided the standard applicable information; however,
to date no candidates actually have completed the renunciation
process. Some commentators have asserted that, in order for such
candidates to avoid disqualification, they would have had to
complete renunciations prior to Nomination Day (August 7),rather
than by Election Day (August 27). Poloff has inquired with a
respected constitutional authority; speaking off the record and on
condition of anonymity, the authority confirmed that the answer
depended on the interpretation of the "Representation of the Peoples
Act," and that to date no court had ruled on this point-- thus
leaving the question open. End Note.))

14.(SBU) Comment: If the election is as close as many observers
believe it will be, the disqualification of only one or two
candidates, possibly entailing protracted court cases, conceivably
could be a factor in shaping, or in eventually re-shaping, Jamaica's
next Government. Particularly if prospective disqualification(s)
would result in the ruling party losing power, the risk of violence
would be serious. End Comment.
JOHNSON