Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KINGSTON1161
2007-07-25 20:25:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Kingston
Cable title:  

JAMAICA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP NUMBER TWO

Tags:  PREL PGOV SOCI ECON ECPS ASEC SNAR KCOR JM XL 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2455
PP RUEHGR
DE RUEHKG #1161/01 2062025
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 252025Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5102
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0348
RUMIAAA/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 001161 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS, SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (KHARNE/RBUDDEN)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI ECON ECPS ASEC SNAR KCOR JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP NUMBER TWO

REF: (A) KINGSTON 1126 (201159Z JUL 07)(NOTAL)

(B) KINGSTON 1144 (2329029Z JUL 07)(NOTAL)

Summary
-------
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 001161

SIPDIS

SIPDIS, SENSITIVE

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (KHARNE/RBUDDEN)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI ECON ECPS ASEC SNAR KCOR JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP NUMBER TWO

REF: (A) KINGSTON 1126 (201159Z JUL 07)(NOTAL)

(B) KINGSTON 1144 (2329029Z JUL 07)(NOTAL)

Summary
--------------

1.(SBU) In this second round-up of election-related developments:

-- Dissolution of Parliament

-- Jamaica's Closest Election in Decades?

-- Violent Incidents Continue

-- Fears of Violence May Favor Ruling Party by Suppressing Voter
Turnout

-- Debates Announced

-- Report on Controversial Cellular Licensing due July 30

End Summary.

Parliament to be Dissolved in Advance of Elections
-------------- --------------

2.(SBU) Prime Minister (PM) Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) has sent an
official request to Governor-General Professor Kenneth Hall to
dissolve the Jamaican Parliament effective July 25 in advance of the
August 27 general elections. The chief parliamentary counsel will
prepare the Proclamation for the Dissolution of Parliament for
signature and gazetting by midnight, July 25. At that time, a
proclamation for the holding of elections on August 27 will be
issued.

Jamaica's Closest National Election in Decades?
-------------- --

3.(SBU) The favorability ratings of parliamentary candidates of
both the ruling People's National Party (PNP) and the opposition
Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) have improved, according to the latest
Bill Johnson poll commissioned by the Gleaner newspaper and released
July 25. With a purported error margin of three percent, Johnson's
latest survey claims that only four points separate the favorability
ratings of both parties' respective candidates: PNP 40 percent, JLP
36 percent. (Comment: Recent polls by Johnson and others have met
with widespread skepticism because of doubts as to their
objectivity. Post continues to believe that:
-- the overall popular vote will be quite close;
-- in approximately 25 of Jamaica's 60 parliamentary districts, the

individual races are too close to call;
-- much may transpire between now and Aug. 27.
Further analysis will be provided via septels.
End Comment.)

Violent Incidents Continue:
Opposition JLP Calls for Calm; Ruling PNP Strangely Silent
-------------- --------------

4.(SBU) Sanjay Ebanks, the Office Manager for Opposition JLP
(Jamaica Labour Party) parliamentary candidate Joan Gordon-Webley in
the South-East St. Andrew constituency, who was shot as he was
locking-up the office the evening of July 19 (reftel A),died of his
wounds the next day. This constituency includes the volatile areas
of Woodford Park, Mountain View, Saunders Ave., and Jacques Rd.
Earlier, Gordon-Webley had reported that her motorcade had come
under fire. PNP (People's National Party) General Secretary Donald
Buchanan had dismissed her report as a "false accusation."

5.(SBU) The murder of Ebanks has provoked a strong response from
JLP leader Bruce Golding, who has written a letter to Prime Minister
(PM) Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) threatening to withdraw from any
further bipartisan talks involving Buchanan. Golding has called
Buchanan "indisciplined" and "uncontrollable," and has demanded that
PSM "reign him in." Golding also warned JLP members not to seek
retaliation, noting "every retaliation invokes a retaliation to that
retaliation and there is no point in going that way." Golding and
JLP Shadow Minister for National Security Derrick Smith have asked
Police Commissioner Lucius Thomas to establish a temporary security
post in the community.

6.(SBU) For her part, the PNP Member of Parliament (MP) for
South-East St. Andrew, Maxine Henry-Wilson, has expressed her
condolences to Ebanks' relatives and stated: "the recent flare-up of
violence in this constituency is not only most distressing, but
demands the strongest possible condemnation." Meanwhile, Buchanan's
comments on the murder have been limited to calling for a police
investigation and suggesting that the murder may not have been
politically motivated. PSM has not commented. (Note: Because of

KINGSTON 00001161 002 OF 003


the "cheek-by-jowl" proximity and dense concentration of both PNP
and JLP supporters, Mountain View, Saunders Ave., and Jacques Rd.
comprise a particularly volatile area of Kingston. Even in normal
times, the area is prone to non-political violent crime contributing
to Jamaica's high murder rate. South-East St. Andrew, and other
high-profile constituencies, will be the subjects of septels.)

7.(SBU) Thus far, the JLP appears to have received the brunt of the
political violence; however, it hasn't been limited to JLP
supporters. A reporter from Nationwide News Network (NNN) claims to
have received death threats following Buchanan's criticism of NNN as
biased against the PNP. NNN claims the PNP withdrew its
advertisements from the network following its broadcast of a recent
poll favorable to the JLP, and subsequent criticism by Buchanan.

Fears of Violence May Favor Ruling PNP
--------------

8.(SBU) Jamaica has a history of political violence, which peaked
in the 1980 election but since has diminished; unfortunately, the
current unusually long campaign appears to risk breaking this
downward trend. Two factors may explain the risk:

(A) As much as a third of the electorate has not committed to either
party. Jamaican political history suggests that these "undecideds"
usually tend to vote 2-to-1 in favor of the party in opposition.

(B) In years of violence, undecided (or not strongly committed)
voters tend to stay home. With recent polls consistently showing a
close race, and the ruling PNP's lead over the JLP smaller than the
percent of the population that has not committed to either party,
suppression of voter turn-out thus can only benefit the PNP.

National Debates Announced
--------------

9.(SBU) The Jamaican Debates Commission (JDC) has announced the
dates for national debates between the ruling PNP and the opposition
JLP:

-- The first of the three debates will be held on August 8 and will
feature PNP Minister for National Security Dr. Peter Phillips facing
JLP Shadow Minister for Health and Environment Dr. Ken Baugh
focusing on social issues such as crime and health.

-- The second will be held on August 10 and will feature the PNP's
Dr. Omar Davies (Minister of Finance and Planning) and the JLP's
Shadow Minister for Finance and Public Service Audley Shaw focusing
on economic issues.

-- The final debate will be on August 11 and will feature PM Portia
Simpson-Miller (PSM) squaring off against opposition JLP leader
Bruce Golding.

10.(SBU) Poloff and DCM recently met with Matt Dippell, Deputy
Director for Latin America and the Caribbean at the National
Democratic Institute for International Affairs, and Martin Slutsky,
Executive Producer, Commission on Presidential Debates. Both
organizations are advising the JDC on producing the three debates.
The JDC sponsored the country's first live, televised debates in
2002, during which the then candidates PM P.J. Patterson (PNP) and
Opposition Leader Edward Seaga (JLP) shook hands - thus sending a
powerful message of peace to the electorate. Dippell and Slutsky
reported that this year's debate will see the removal of sponsor
advertising, reduction in the number of commercials, and reduced
fees for television air time (Note: Jamaican television does not
provide free air time for debates or other political events. End
Note).

11.(SBU) The Aug. 11 debate between PSM and Golding has been the
subject of much anticipation and speculation. The two have
remarkably different styles, with PSM exuding charisma and
frequently alluding to God and "destiny," and Golding projecting a
much more technocratic and businesslike image. PSM has only
participated in one other debate: the 1992 PNP intra-party debate
for leadership. Both friend and foe alike judged PSM's performance
against P.J. Patterson a resounding failure. Since that time, she
has tended to avoid unscripted moments with the media. Her
disappointing performance, however, is well-known and she may very
well survive the debate due to low expectations from the electorate.
In private discussions with Ambassador, Golding has observed that
PSM need only give the media one memorable sound-bite to look good,
while he must perform well over the entire course of the debate.

Report on Controversial Cellular Licensing due July 30
-------------- --------------

12.(SBU) Meanwhile, Minister of Information Donald Buchanan has
announced that a report on recent controversial sales of cellular

KINGSTON 00001161 003 OF 003


telephone licenses by Minister of Industry, Technology, Energy, and
Commerce Philip Paulwell (Reftel B) will be delivered to Cabinet on
July 30. Alleged mismanagement of Jamaica's Universal Access Fund
(UAF) is only the latest imbroglio involving Paulwell, a close
advisor of PSM, and may give political ammunition to the opposition
JLP during the campaign.
JOHNSON