JAMAICA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP NUMBER ONE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 001126

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR Randall c. BUDDEN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI ECON JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: ELECTION CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP NUMBER ONE

REF: KINGSTON 953

Summary and Analysis
--------------

1.(SBU) In this first edition of periodic round-ups of
election-related developments post hopes to provide over coming
weeks:

-- By delaying national elections until August 27, Prime Minister
(PM) Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) has given her ruling People's
National Party (PNP) time for grassroots, ground-level campaigning
in hopes of improving trends that PNP insiders say point to a very
close race.

-- Initially wrong-footed by PSM's election date announcement,
opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Leader Bruce Golding has
regained his balance and reiterated a longstanding call for fixed
election dates in the future.

-- With the historical specter of election-related violence hanging
heavily over the country, the leaders and supporters of the two
major parties send disparate signals. PSM and Golding jointly
condemn "any act of provocation, intimidation, or political violence
that has already smeared the campaign." However, whether either
party leader has real control over his/her supporters remains
unclear. Isolated acts of random violence are ominous, and could
escalate and then spiral out of control (reftel).

-- For their part, the police claim they systematically are
targeting communities troubled by political violence and will ensure
the safety of voters and election workers.

-- Former Prime Ministers P.J. Patterson (PNP) and Edward Seaga
(JLP) have taken on contrasting roles in the campaign: the former as
an active behind-the-scenes PNP strategist, the latter as a detached
observer and commentator.

-- Meanwhile, the powerful Minister of Industry, Technology, Energy,
and Commerce, Phillip Paulwell, a close advisor and confidant of
PSM, is at the center of yet another alleged scandal - this one
involving cellular telephone licenses.
End Summary and Analysis.

Election Date Catches Most by Surprise
--------------

2.(SBU) Prime Minister (PM) Portia Simpson Miller (PSM)'s
announcement that Nomination Day would be August 7 and the general
election would be held August 27 took most Jamaicans (including
members of her own ruling People's National Party - PNP) by
surprise. Speculation has been rife over the reason for the 7
week-long campaign with two plausible reasons gaining currency:
First, the Prime Minister is known to openly consult a self-styled
religious "Prophet" who may have advised her of the importance of
the number 7. Thus, Nomination Day will be on the 7th, the election
on the 27th, and there is a 7 week wait between the announcement and
the election. Second, and perhaps more credibly, the Prime Minister
was under pressure to call the election but knew her party had not
yet been able to unleash its "campaign machine" to full effect.
Therefore, she chose to call the election, but to delay the actual
date as long as possible to give the PNP time for grassroots,
ground-level campaigning in hopes of improving trends that PNP
insiders say point to a very close race.

Golding Wrong-footed?
--------------

3.(SBU) Upon hearing the announcement of the election date, the
opposition Jamaican Labour Party (JLP) leader Bruce Golding
initially reacted with annoyance (at best) and outright anger (at
worst). He since has regained his composure, but has consistently
pounded the PM for the lengthy campaign, alleging that the longer
Jamaicans wait, the more likely election violence will erupt between
the two parties.

JLP Calls for Fixed Election Dates in Future
--------------

4.(SBU) Golding also has reiterated the JLP's longstanding call for
fixed election dates in the future, maintaining that the PM's power
to arbitrarily call elections - when it is most convenient to the
ruling party - places an unfair burden on the opposition. He has
proposed changing the Constitution to adopt a fixed election date
within 100 days of assuming power. Some legal scholars, however,
maintain that: 1) this cannot be achieved in the promised 100 days
after elections, and, 2) it may not be legal. Constitutional lawyer
and Chairman of the electoral watchdog group Citizens Action for
Free and Fair Elections (CAFFE) Dr. Lloyd Barnett has commented that
the provisions in the Jamaican Constitution are "entrenched" and

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cannot be removed through ordinary legislation. He also has noted
that despite JLP's description of the parts of the Constitution
which they wish to amend or remove entirely related to calling
elections, the party has overlooked an important factor: the role
of the Governor General. Thus, while a JLP Government might be able
to remove the PM's discretion to set an election date, it is
actually the Governor General who has the authority to dissolve
parliament. Once parliament is dissolved, elections must be called
within 90 days.

Violence or Peace:
Party Leaders and Supporters Send Mixed Messages
-------------- --------------

5.(SBU) The historical specter of election violence hangs heavily
over Jamaica. The threat, based on incidents of violence including
the murder of hundreds during the 1980 elections, has been
compounded by the long campaign cycle. Both PNP and JLP candidates
as well as the leaders of both parties have publicly pleaded with
Jamaicans to refrain from violence. Despite this, sporadic acts
have increased, including at least four shootings (resulting in two
deaths) and one arson as well as stoning of motorcades, shooting at
political party members, and vandalism.

6.(SBU) Parliament agreed to a "Political Code of Conduct" in
September 2005 governing the conduct of elections. The Code, among
other things, rejects political tribalism, violence, and voter or
party intimidation. If a party feels there has been a violation,
they are required to first speak directly with the appropriate
person in the other political party to reach a resolution. Failing
that, they may take their grievance to the Political Ombudsman -
Bishop Herro Blair. If the Ombudsman is unable to resolve the
conflict, parties may take their case to court. As of July 17, the
Ombudsman had received 39 complaints since February (27 since June
alone). The Ombudsman can also call candidates or party leaders to
meet with him if he feels it necessary. He summoned both PSM and
Golding to his office on July 13; following their meeting, the two
leaders issued a joint statement condemning "any act of provocation,
intimidation, or political violence that has already smeared the
campaign. We want no further politically connected injury, loss of
life or loss of property."

7.(SBU) Yet even as the leaders plea for peace and calm, they also
convey their feelings that the other party is responsible for
violence. Golding has made several statements suggesting that PSM
is responsible for the violence because the campaign period is too
long. Simpson Miller, on the other hand, suggests that Golding's
frequent references to violence in a long-campaign period may become
a self-fulfilling prophecy. Whether either party leader has real
control over his/her supporters remains unclear. A long-time
Embassy contact who is normally quite insightful regarding party
politics, has dismissed all violence against the JLP as having been
instigated by the JLP itself to gain sympathy; when asked why either
side would resort to violence, she replied "the PNP will not draw
first blood, but we have to respond."

Shootings in Mountain View
--------------

8.(SBU) Over recent days, three persons have been wounded by gunfire
in the volatile Mountain View neighborhood in the urban constituency
of Eastern St. Andrew, a traditional JLP stronghold. One man
reportedly was attacked and shot after objecting to political
banners being posted in front of his house. The Jamaica
Constabulary Force (JCF),augmented by the Jamaica Defence Force
(JDF),deployed a large contingent of police and troops to the
neighborhood the night of July 17; they have set up buffer zones in
an effort to prevent the conflicting parties from coming together to
attack each other. Ombudsman Bishop Blair led a "peace walk"
through the neighborhood on July 18 in an effort to dampen
tensions."

JLP Candidate's Vehicle Hit by Gunfire
--------------

9.(SBU) In a separate incident, the JLP's outspoken candidate for
the hotly contested Southeast St. Andrew seat, Joan Gordon Webley,
claimed that her vehicle had been sprayed with gunfire. Police
reportedly are investigating.

10.(SBU) Deputy Commissioner of Police Linval Bailey has announced
that the JCF will increase its presence in a number of communities
troubled by political violence in the run-up to the August 27
election date. He maintains the police will ensure voters have free
passage to polling stations, and that election workers and observers
will be safe. Among the "hot spot" areas to receive special police
attention are Woodford Park, Mountain View, Central Village in
South-Central St. Catherine, and Stony Hill and Brandon Hill in West
Rural St. Andrew.


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Contrasting Roles of Former Prime Ministers
--------------

11.(SBU) For his part, former PM and respected political father
figure P.J. Patterson appears to have assumed an active
behind-the-scenes role in advising PSM and organizing the PNP's
campaign. He reportedly has opened a campaign strategy office in
the Liguanea area of Kingston, and is likely to play a low-profile
but pivotal role as the PNP's senior strategist. In contrast,
former PM Edward Seaga has chosen not to become directly involved in
the JLP's campaign. In a detached and reflective editorial
published in the "Jamaica Gleaner," Seaga noted that Jamaican voters
were influenced more by catchphrases, slogans, and street language
than by party manifestos or detailed logical argument, concluding
that: "Those who are seeking a more straightforward issue-oriented
electoral system, less colorful and less 'folksy', must encourage
the development of a more successful education system capable of
dealing with issues. Otherwise, the country will continue to
operate on a fiction of democracy."

12.(SBU) Meanwhile, the powerful Minister of Industry, Technology,
Energy, and Commerce (MITEC) Phillip Paulwell, a close advisor and
confidant of PSM, is at the center of yet another controversial
scandal. Paulwell noted that the sale of the country's fourth
cellular license would go, after extensive due diligence, to a
company known as Solutrea Jamaica, Limited. Solutrea was to pay JMD
510 million (approximately USD 7.5 million) for the license. When
it became unclear that Solutrea had, in fact, paid the full sum, the
Opposition JLP seized upon the case. Shadow spokesman for Mining,
Energy, and Telecommunications, Clive Mullings, discovered that the
license was sold without all required agencies agreeing to the sale.
It was further uncovered that Minnette Palmer, and advisor to
Paulwell, owns a company which is a shareholder of Solutrea. While
this kind of practice is common in Jamaica, its timing (just six
weeks before the election) gives the JLP something into which to
sink its teeth.
JOHNSON