RWANDA: LEVELING THE POLITICAL PLAYING FIELD?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIGALI 000746

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM RW
SUBJECT: RWANDA: LEVELING THE POLITICAL PLAYING FIELD?

REF: KIGALI 743

Classified By: Ambassador Michael R. Arietti, reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (SBU) Summary. With the advent of a new law on
political parties on June 1, the two largest independent
parties have begun organizational efforts at the grassroots
level, and report renewed interest among average Rwandans in
party politics. With just over a year to the 2008
parliamentary elections, both the Liberal Party (PL) and
Social Democratic Party (PSD),see an expanded playing field,
and opportunity to make gains in elections. Meanwhile, the
RPF has conducted its own internal party elections, which
appeared to be open and democratic, and had some surprising
results. Key to acceptable national elections next year will
be both the ability of parties such as the PL and PSD to
campaign freely, and an accurate vote count by election
authorities. As both local officials and local populations
realize that other parties can and will make appeals to them,
unlike 2003, the playing field may become a bit more level.
End Summary.


2. (SBU) On June 1 a new law on political parties went into
effect, allowing the establishment of offices at "all the
country's administrative entities." The prior law allowed
offices only at the national and provincial levels. In
Rwanda's administrative structure, below the capital of
Kigali and the four provinces lie districts (30),sectors
(416),cells (2148) and villages (7000 ). Both the Liberal
Party (PL) and Social Democratic Party (PSD) anticipated the
change in the law and began initial organizational efforts in
the spring that culminated, after enactment of the law, in
local elections for the PL at the sector and district levels,
and for the PSD at the district level. (FYI: the PL also
conducted hotly-contested elections at the national level,
while the PSD's national officials, elected in 2005, remain
in office. End FYI). Both parties have told us that, while
the previous law did not actually forbid party organizers
from contacting members and electing officials at the local
level, in practice local government officials often frowned
on any form of organizational effort. Both parties report
that since June 1 the change in the law has been received
positively by local officials; the PL has taken to
distributing the text of the new law to local officials as
the occasion arises.


3. (SBU) Both parties also tell us that their formal ability
to organize at every administrative level is constrained by
their severe lack of resources. Looking toward the 2008
elections, both plan to open offices at the provincial level
and hope for offices at the district level; offices at
sectors, cells or villages are beyond their capacity. Said
Senator Odette Nyiramilimo, just elected as PL Vice
President, "local people are starting to realize that we can
now come to them, and local officials are becoming aware that
we are allowed to do so. But we don't have the money to
reach them." PSD officials make similar remarks, often
comparing their resource base to that of the ruling RPF. For
example, PSD Vice President Marc Rugenera told us recently,
"it comes down to which businesses will support you, and RPF
has many more companies than we do." Fund raising, say both
parties, "is everything."


4. (C) Both the PL and the PSD hope to increase their
respective parliamentary vote totals in 2008. In 2003, the
RPF won 74 percent, the PSD 12 percent, and the PL 11
percent; the other five parties split the remaining three
percent. The PL and PSD each believes it can roughly double
its totals, to something approaching twenty percent or more.
Said Rugenera, "bringing the PRF under fifty percent is
probably impossible, but we can reduce its margin." Each
also hopes for an accurate tallying of the vote. "We think
we already won 20 percent in 2003," asserted Rugenara, but
"votes were not counted properly." (FYI: an NDI assessment
of the 2003 elections cited "multiple instances of government
harassment of opposition parties," "blurred lines between the
ruling party and the State," and "inhibited political
discourse at the grassroots level," among other problems. End
FYI). The PL in particular claims that new supporters are
joining the party every day, including disaffected RPF
members, described by Nyiramilino as ambitious, educated men
and women who "are tired of the crowded field" in RPF
circles. "They are coming to us from a sense of frustration
-- they can't move up in the RPF."


5. (SBU) Both the PL and the PSD agree that a difficult task

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for their parties will be to distinguish themselves from the
RPF. With senior members of both parties serving within a
power-sharing government, as do other parties (such
power-sharing required by the constitution),they also share
authority and responsibility for government policies and
programs. The high emotions generated at the recent PL party
congress reflected in part the tension between those who
advocated a more independent line from the RPF and those who
wish to continue the party's present cooperative course. In
the end, the election of Commerce Minister Protais Mitali as
president, and Odette Nyiramilimo as vice president, placed
party leadership largely in the hands of the cooperative
faction.


6. (C) Some party leaders, however, are concerned that
cooperation may not always be a two-way street. Days after
his election as PL president, Mitali found himself found
himself on the front pages of the government-aligned New
Times, his ministry accused of contract and tendering abuse.
While this investigation into ministry affairs is part of a
long-standing prosecutorial effort to pursue potential misuse
of funds by many GOR institutions (see reftel),the timing
looked suspicious to some within the PL. Speaking recently
to polchief, Member of Parliament and newly re-elected
treasurer of the PL Elie Ngirabakunzi said, "the RPF is not
above placing someone from another party in a high position
and then weakening them with continuing allegations." (FYI:
the on-going investigation and local headlines have featured
ruling party RPF members as well as Mitali. End FYI).


7. (SBU) The ruling RPF also held its own recent local party
elections at sector and district levels, with provincial
elections coming soon. By all reports, the elections were
open and democratic. To the surprise of many within the
party, most serving RPF members of parliament lost their bid
to secure local party positions. By contrast, most serving
RPF mayors (mayors are ostensibly non-partisan officials, but
the 30 district mayors are generally associated with one
party or another) won election. RPF General Secretary
Francois Ngarambe told polchief that the MPs, being elected
from a national list in 2003, with no local constituency
formally assigned to them under the law, rarely visited their
home areas, and were "completely unknown" to local residents.
Mayors, however, worked day by day in the districts, are
were well-known to the local populations. That made all the
difference, he said, and was a lesson to keep in mind for

2008. Acknowledging the RPF's preeminent position in Rwandan
politics, Ngarambe said that "parties have the right to
organize. But you have to work for support as well, not just
stay in the capital. We have the support of Rwandans and we
are going to keep it."


8. (C) Comment. The RPF dominates the political landscape,
and will continue to do so. Its powers of patronage, as the
leader of the power-sharing government, and its clearly
superior ability to raises campaign funds, means other
parties must play catch-up as they begin to organize in
earnest at local levels. However, both the PL and the PSD
cautiously report a new atmosphere underway, as both local
officials and local populations realize that other parties
can and will make appeals to them. This may be no small
change: the idea that the government and the RPF are more or
less the same has been widespread in the countryside. Unlike
2003, will there be a level playing field for all political
parties in 2008? The field has just become a bit more level.
End comment.
ARIETTI