Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KHARTOUM984
2007-06-21 15:27:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Khartoum
Cable title:  

DENG ALOR SEES CHANGES IN NCP POSITIONS

Tags:  PREL PGOV KPKO UN AU SU ER 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2105
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0984/01 1721527
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 211527Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7682
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000984 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND SHORTLEY
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO UN AU SU ER
SUBJECT: DENG ALOR SEES CHANGES IN NCP POSITIONS

Classified By: CDA A. Fernandez, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d)

-----------------------------------
NCP Slowly Recognizing "New Reality"
------------------------------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000984

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND SHORTLEY
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO UN AU SU ER
SUBJECT: DENG ALOR SEES CHANGES IN NCP POSITIONS

Classified By: CDA A. Fernandez, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d)

--------------
NCP Slowly Recognizing "New Reality"
--------------


1. (C) In an introductory meeting with CDA Fernandez,
Minister of Cabinet Affairs Deng Alor characterized the
National Congress Party (NCP) as split between those who
acknowledged the "new reality" of Sudan--where the NCP could
no longer make unilateral decisions and needed to engage in
dialogue with the international community--and those who
opposed a robust UN peace-keeping force in Darfur. While
President Bashir was trying to bridge this divide, Alor said
that it was clear from the recent acceptance of the hybrid
that momentum had shifted to the first, more moderate camp.
Though the hawks in the Government maintained that the UN/AU
hybrid could deploy without UN command and control, Alor said
"that this is not a serious thing now that Bashir has made a
decision to allow the UN in."


2. (C) The CDA said that the NCP "should not be paralyzed" by
a distrust of the West. The U.S. had no conspiratorial
intentions in Sudan, and the international community had
reasonable demands: an end to the crisis in Darfur and the
implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
The U.S. was not asking for the NCP to relinquish power or
"commit suicide" but constant delays in choosing the
reasonable course risked realizing the NCP hard-liners' worst
fears. A solution to the Darfur conflict is in its
interests, the CDA explained. Noting the growing
militarization of the internally-displaced persons camps, he
predicted that the NCP could ultimately lose control if the
crisis is not solved.


3. (C) Alor concurred and said that the Darfur "rebellion"
could expand into Kordofan. In addition, the "internal
opposition" exploited the NCP's mistakes. The hard-liners'
policies were counterproductive and could inadvertently bring
down the Government. There was always a chance of an

internal coup by hard-liners. Alor asserted, however, that
the NCP was changing, "slowly, but it's changing." Several
influential NCP members had asked for the assistance of the
Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in defusing
tensions with the West and with the U.S. in particular. Alor
has told them that the SPLM would facilitate dialogue but
that the NCP should realize that its policies have created
enemies. The CDA suggested that both the U.S. and Sudan
should look at each other's actions, not their public
comments, as an indication of their intentions and noted that
Amb. Khalilzad had said during his recent visit to Khartoum
that positive actions from Sudan would be reciprocated by
positive responses from the international community.

--------------
Abyei Discussions Gain Focus
--------------


4. (C) Abyei has dominated recent discussions between the NCP
and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM),said Alor.
While the NCP still rejects the findings of the Abyei Border
Commission, Vice President Ali Osman Taha suggested that the
two parties set aside the report and come to a "political
solution." After discussions on this track yielded no
results, Alor accused the NCP of being "separatists in their
thinking" if they refused to resolve the Abyei dispute
because of their fear of losing the North's only major source
of oil in 2011. Taha conceded that the NCP would acquiesce
on the border if the oil issue was addressed. He recommended
the establishment of a four-member commission, to include
himself and Alor, to examine a two-pillared approach to
overcoming the dispute: 1) A percentage of Abyei's oil
revenues would be transferred to the Government of National
Unity (GNU) from the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) and
2) Either a joint fund or two separate funds would be
established for development projects in both Abyei and for
the Masseriya to which the GNU, the GoSS, and the
international community would contribute. Though GoSS Vice
President Riek Machar referred to this as "buying the land,"
Alor said that discussions were ongoing.

--------------
SPLM Darfur Conference
--------------


5. (C) Alor reiterated the SPLM's efforts to organize a
conference in Southern Sudan to prepare the Darfur Peace
Agreement (DPA) non-signatories for a constructive peace

KHARTOUM 00000984 002 OF 002


process as well as the SPLM's support for the United Nations
and African Union to lead final negotiations. He said that
the SPLM was trying to regroup after its conference was
postponed but was optimistic about it occurring within the
next few weeks. Alor reported that First Vice President
Salva Kiir had met with Eritrean officials in recent days.
He said that Eritrea intended to exclude the international
community from the negotiating process and that the NCP
supported the Eritrean initiative because Khartoum valued its
relationship with Asmara. CDA responded that Sudan should be
more concerned about its relationship with the U.S. and urged
Alor to underscore the importance of Sudan supporting the
UN/AU peace process. Alor heartily agreed.
FERNANDEZ