SUDAN/UGANDA/DRC: LORD'S RESISTANCE ARMY FORCES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000839

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF/SE NATSIOS AND AF/SPG, NSC
FOR PITTMAN AND SHORTLEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR PHUM KPKO SU UG CG
SUBJECT: SUDAN/UGANDA/DRC: LORD'S RESISTANCE ARMY FORCES
GATHER AT SUDAN/CONGO BORDER

REF: KHARTOUM 749

Classified By: CDA R. Powers a.i., Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: "Most" Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) forces
east of the Nile in southern Sudan have now crossed to the
west and gathered in the vicinity of Garamba National Park in
the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),according to the head
of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA). Peace talks
are due to resume in Juba May 31. End Summary.

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LRA Cross the Nile
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2. (C) "Most" LRA forces east of the Nile in southern Sudan
have crossed to the west and are now in the vicinity of DRC's
Garamba National Park, SPLA Chief of Staff Oyai Deng told
Acting CG Juba May 26. Deng declined to estimate the number
of LRA who crossed, but said the groups consisted of
combatants, captives and "wives." The movement began on
approximately May 17, following a May 7 ultimatum from
Ugandan and South Sudanese officials demanding that the LRA
relocate to the Ri-Kwangba assembly point on the Sudan-DRC
border within seven days, and identifying corridors for their
movement (reftel).


3. (C) UN sources report that "hundreds" of LRA have been
seen west of the Nile, moving toward Garamba. Uganda's
well-informed Consul General in Juba, Ambassador Busho
Ndiyenka, said he believed only 150-200 had crossed.
However, Ndiyenka said, this group represented most or all of
the LRA groups that had been operating east of the Nile in
southern Sudan. An ex-LRA combatant captured in January by
SPLA forces, and later interviewed by ConGen staff, told us
there were about six LRA groups operating east of the Nile.
SPLA sources estimate the strength of each group at 10-15
fighters.

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Lootings and Abductions En Route
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4. (C) The LRA groups moving west did not follow the
corridors prescribed by Sudanese and Ugandan military
officials and engaged in looting and abductions en route.
The LRA also rebuffed offers of food and transportation
assistance. An estimated 75 LRA attacked villages north of
Lainya in Central Equatoria State (about 25 miles west of
Juba) on May 19, looting food and other material and
abducting four people. Two of the abductees were
subsequently released. One of the looted houses reportedly
belonged to Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) Minister of
Information Samson Kwaje, a mediator in the peace talks.
Presumed LRA elements also attacked and looted foodstuffs
from Tore, a village about 80 miles west of Juba, on May 22.
According to an unconfirmed UN report, an LRA group engaged
an SPLA unit at Tore on May 23 and killed two SPLA soldiers.


5. (C) Under the latest renewal of the Cessation of
Hostilities Agreement in the long-running Juba peace talks,
GOSS and the Government of Uganda (GOU) representatives met
with LRA leadership on April 13 and acceded to LRA demands to
assemble all their forces at Ri-Kwangba, a short distance
from the redoubt of LRA chief Joseph Kony in Garamba National
Park. Subsequent efforts to arrange the LRA movement bore
little fruit, however, and SPLA officials reported that they
did not believe LRA forces east of the Nile were serious
about assembling. SPLA forces and elements of the Uganda
People's Defense Forces (UPDF) carried out a series of
anti-LRA operations east of the Nile prior to the May 7
ultimatum, which SPLA officials believe contributed to the
LRA's final decision to move.

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Peace Talks Set to Resume
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6. (C) Peace talks are set to resume in Juba May 31, and
focus on issues of justice and accountability. Ugandan
Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Henry Oryem Okello
traveled to Juba May 24 for consultations with senior
officials of the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) and the
SPLA. SPLA chief Deng told us Okello's visit was very
useful. He also said that GOSS is continuing to push for
closer military and intelligence links with Uganda and DRC to
contain, if not eliminate, the LRA threat.


7. (C) Ugandan CG Ndiyenka reported that LRA

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second-in-command Vincent Otti had demanded that the
multi-national Cessation of Hostilities Monitoring Teams
(CHMT) avoid the Ri-Kwangba assembly point. Instead, Busho
said, Otti has insisted that the CHMTs base their operations
in the town of Maridi, about 20 miles away. The newly
beefed-up CHMTs have monitored recent LRA movements and are
expected to be deployed soon east of the Nile to determine
whether or not all LRA units have departed the area. UN
officials also report that Otti has provided direct
assurances that LRA forces will not attack UN vehicles. SPLA
officials say LRA elements remaining east of the Nile will be
deemed to be in violation of the Cessation of Hostilities
Agreement.

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Comment
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8. (C) The consolidation of LRA forces on the DRC/Sudan
border is a significant milestone. It is too early to say
whether this is a positive or negative development, however.
While assembly at a single location is consistent with
agreements reached in the peace process, the manner of
movement and the LRA's behavior en route raise questions
about the group's intentions. The LRA may be preparing to
cut a final peace deal as a unified, coherent force. Or they
may merely be consolidating their strength in the relative
safety of the DRC while plotting the next chapter in this
long conflict.
POWERS