LRA ENTERS CAR, SPLA AND UPDF PLAN MILITARY ACTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000309

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER AND AF/SE NATSIOS, NSC FOR
PITTMAN AND SHORTLEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR SU CG UG CT
SUBJECT: LRA ENTERS CAR, SPLA AND UPDF PLAN MILITARY ACTION

AGAINST WHILE GOSS PURSUES PEACE TALKS

Classified By: DCM R. Powers, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Reports have proliferated in southern Sudan
that Ugandan rebel leader Joseph Kony of the Lord's
Resistance Army (LRA) has entered the Central African
Republic (CAR) with a small force. However, the senior Sudan
People's Liberation Army (SPLA) official with responsibility
for the LRA says while some LRA elements have crossed into
CAR, Kony's presence there is unconfirmed. According to SPLA
Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Oyai Deng, SPLA and the Ugandan
People's Defense Forces (UPDF) are planning anti-LRA actions
east of the Nile in southern Sudan after the current
Cessation of Hostilities Agreement lapses February 28. The
Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) is nevertheless
persisting in efforts to restart peace talks between the LRA
and the Government of Uganda (GOU). End Summary.

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Movement into CAR
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2. (C) SPLA Maj. Gen. Wilson Deng told PolOff February 27
that LRA elements have "definitely" entered CAR over the last
week. A senior advisor to GOSS VP Riak Machar, mediator in
the stalled LRA peace talks, reported the same February 24.
Deng estimated that there are 200-300 LRA personnel now in
CAR. Machar's advisor, Prof. George Achor, said SPLA and
civilian authorities in remote southwestern Sudan had
confirmed the movement of LRA forces into CAR, including an
"advance party" and subsequent groups who transported arms
and provisions.


3. (C) Although there are widespread reports that LRA leader
Joseph Kony has also moved to CAR from his previous base in
the DRC's Garamba National Park, Maj. Gen. Deng cautions that
Kony's whereabouts have not been established definitively.
Deng nevertheless said he "suspects" Kony is in CAR, and said
the LRA is attempting to establish a base somewhere near Obo
in southeastern CAR. Kony has operated from southern Sudan
for most of the last two decades. In November 2005, however,
he and other senior LRA leadership relocated from southern
Sudan to northern DRC.


4. (C) On February 24 SPLA forces observed a "small" LRA
group near the Ri-Kwangba assembly point on the DRC-Sudan
border, Deng said. This group was probably acting as a cover
for a larger movement into CAR, Deng said. As of February
28, UNMIS security personnel were also attempting to verify
an unconfirmed report of an LRA group camped approximately 30
kilometers from Nagero in southern Sudan's Western Equatoria
State, approximately 100 kilometers from the CAR border.
Local officials have reportedly closed the road between
Tambura, in Western Equatoria, and the CAR border. The UN
has imposed new restrictions on the movement of UN personnel
in parts of the area. The UN also reports "credible
information of LRA movement northwards between Nazara and Ezo
and then westwards into CAR bypassing Tambura to the north."

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End of Cessation of Hostilities Agreement
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5. (C) With the February 28 expiration of the Cessation of
Hostilities Agreement, SPLA Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Oyai Deng
says his forces are ready to remove against remaining LRA
elements east of the Nile in southern Sudan. It is unclear
how many LRA bands remain in those areas. Maj. Gen. Deng was
in Nimule, near the Uganda-Sudan border, on February 27 to
review operational plans and consult with the Uganda People's
Defense Forces (UPDF). The UPDF have operated against the
LRA in southern Sudan since 2002, and collaborate with the
SPLA in securing the Nimule-Juba road, a vital transportation
link for southern Sudan and frequent venue of attacks by the
LRA and other armed groups (OAGs). The LRA have also carried
out extensive food raids in ethnic Acholi areas east of the
Nile since last December.


6. (C) Sources in the SPLA also claim to have verified that
some LRA groups have moved "deeper" into DRC. These sources
do not specify the location of the LRA groups. In late
January, SPLA Maj. Gen. Bior Ajang attended a meeting with
senior defense and intelligence counterparts from the UPDF
and Congo's FARDC at Arua in northwestern Uganda. Bior told
us that the meeting focused only on the LRA, and that the
parties attempted to agree on a strategy to contain or
eliminate the Ugandan rebel group. The meeting was useful,
Bior said, but FARDC continues to object to the participation
by UPDF or SPLA in anti-LRA actions in DRC.

KHARTOUM 00000309 002 OF 002


AGAINST WHILE GOSS PURSUES PEACE TALKS


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Chissano Back to the Region
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7. (C) A Sudanese official attached to the stalled LRA peace
talks told us February 27 he expects former Mozambique
president Joaquim Chissano to come to Juba in early March.
Chissano is the UN's special representative for the LRA
problem. The Sudanese official said he had also been advised
that Chissano might also be considering a visit to Kinshasa.

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Attempts to Restart Peace Talks
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8. (C) Despite the end of the Cessation of Hostilities
Agreement and other negative developments, GOSS officials
persist in efforts to re-start peace talks. These efforts
are hampered by reported splits within the LRA delegation,
with some prepared to resume talks in Juba and a group of
hardliners opposed. GOSS VP Machar said February 24 he was
still hopeful talks could resume, and an aide told us GOSS
had purchased airplane tickets for an LRA delegation to
return to Juba. The aide was also hopeful that the LRA
delegation would participate in a large meeting for ethnic
Acholi leaders planned for Juba March 2-4. Most LRA members
and captives are ethnic Acholi, drawn from a population that
straddles the Uganda-Sudan border.


9. (C) Comment: The spread of the LRA problem into a fourth
country is indicative both of the difficult circumstances
facing the group and the continuing danger they pose to
regional stability. GOSS efforts to broker peace talks
deserve support. So do other efforts that would make peace
attractive to the LRA's obdurate leadership. End Comment.
HUME