DARFUR: ERITREAN MEDDLING, TENSIONS BETWEEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 000307

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E NATSIOS, AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND SHORTLEY
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO AU UN SU ER CD LY EUN
SUBJECT: DARFUR: ERITREAN MEDDLING, TENSIONS BETWEEN
CHAD/SUDAN

REF: KHARTOUM 00287

Classified By: CDA Cameron Hume, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) At the February 27 meeting of the Darfur Partners
Group, two European political officers who had attended the
recent summit in Tripoli said that Eritrea had pressed the
Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) non-signatory leaders to join a
political process outside the joint UN and African Union (AU)
effort endorsed by the USG and the international community.
The non-signatory leaders had told Eritrean officials that
they would not participate in any negotiations until the
conference of commanders in North Darfur resulted in a more
unified rebel movement. According to Norwegian Poloff Asmund
Skeie (please protect),Sudanese officials did not meet with
any non-signatory leaders at the summit.

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Pressure from Asmara
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2. (C) Addressing the UN and AU representatives, the Partners
recommended that the new Joint Mediation Support Team (JMST)
work to channel Eritrean action into a more constructive and
internationally-recognized process. The Director of
Political Affairs at the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) said
that UN Envoy Jan Eliasson had been scheduled to visit Asmara
this week but had fallen ill. The AU official claimed that
the Tripoli summit had not focused on the non-signatory
political process but was an attempt to defuse tensions
between Chad and Sudan. The UK Deputy Chief of Mission noted
that this was also the Sudanese government's public position.
(Comment: Norway's good bilateral relationship with Eritrea
would make it a natural interlocutor in support of the UN/AU
team. The leadership of the Sudan People's Liberation
Movement (SPLM),which has long-standing ties with Asmara,
might also be helpful given their renewed interest in
advancing the peace process for Darfur. End comment.)

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Chad/Sudan Tensions
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3. (C) AU representatives warned of the explosive situation
between Chad and Sudan. They said that the Sudanese
government had reinforced Chadian rebels led by Mahamat Nouri
while the Chadian government had contributed to a dramatic
increase in the strength of the Justice and Equality Movement
(JEM) in recent weeks. The AU estimated the JEM's current
capacity at between 2,000 and 3,000 fighters--up from 400
troops--and said that the movement's goals had "narrowed" to
a defense of President Deby's regime. The AU further claimed
to have "credible information" that Chadian rebels based in
Sudan had clashed with JEM forces in the last week.


4. (C) "You could say that the Government of Sudan has
successfully moved its war with Chad out of Sudan," said the
UK Defense Attache. He explained that there had been no
major fighting between Sudanese government forces and Darfur
rebels since early January. He characterized the security
situation in Darfur as an "ambient level" of violence, saying
"we've had a very, very quiet Darfur for the last two
months." This dramatic decrease in violence between the
Government and the rebels, however, was accompanied by an
increase in inter-tribal fighting, which had caused mounting
pressure on humanitarian operations.

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Inter-Rebel Clashes
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5. (C) In a pull-aside with Poloff after the meeting, EU
Poloff Umberto Tavolato (please protect) said that Sudan
Federal Democratic Alliance (SFDA) leader Sharif Harir was
acting under the complete control of Eritrea, which was
encouraging him and others to reject a political process
involving the AU. He also said that a fire-fight had ensued
between Harir's forces and fighters aligned with former G-19
commander Adam Bakhit in the days leading up to the Tripoli
Summit. (Note: Contacts in Khartoum have reported similar
accounts of clashes between Harir and Bakhit's forces. End
note.)


6. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.
HUME