STATE OF DARFUR: THE POLITICAL PROCESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000275

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND SHORTLEY
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO AU UN SU US
SUBJECT: STATE OF DARFUR: THE POLITICAL PROCESS


Classified By: CDA Cameron Hume, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: CDA Hume traveled to Darfur from February
19-21 to gauge the status of the political process, monitor
the conditions for humanitarian operations, and assess the
status of the peace-keeping operation stipulated in the Addis
Ababa and Abuja agreements of November 2006. In visits to
Nyala, Zalingei, El Geneina, and El Fasher, he met with
Sudanese government officials, UN agency heads, and
representatives of international non-governmental
organizations (INGOs). This message--the first of three
cables on these meetings--focuses on the political process,
which is suffering due to ethnic fragmentation, the Sudanese
government's premature decision to establish the Transitional
Darfur Regional Authority (TDRA),and the negative influence
of neighboring countries. End summary.

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Ethnic Fragmentation
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2. (C) The fragmentation of ethnic groups is a growing
obstacle to advancing the political process in Darfur. UN
officials and INGO representatives in the three state
capitals of Darfur characterized the situation as one of
ever-changing intra-tribal alliances. They emphasized that
the crisis is no longer simply armed Arab groups, with the
support of the Sudanese government, fighting African tribes.
These tribes have splintered into rival factions that "shift
almost daily"--due to the personal ambitions of individual
rebel leaders, attempts by the Government to cause divisions,
and the influence of neighboring governments. This
splintering makes it impossible to identify consistent
interlocutors to guarantee humanitarian access or participate
in a constructive political process. The ongoing
fragmentation has delayed the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA)
non-signatory commanders conference in North Darfur. "The
international community needs to put equal political pressure
on the rebel movements as it does on the Government," said
the head of the UN Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Nyala.


3. (C) The disconnect between the political leaders and the
populations they purport to represent was a common
frustration among the UN and NGO representatives in Darfur.
Fur leader Abdul Wahid al-Nur continues to command
significant public support in his home region of Jebel Marra,
despite having been outside of Sudan for at least 17 months.
Some civil society leaders recognize the destructiveness of
this disconnect. In a meeting with CDA Hume in El Fasher,
members of the Darfur Forum criticized the majority of
non-signatory leaders who were in Europe, Chad or Libya
rather than in Darfur.


4. (C) UN officials in El Fasher recommended delaying the
Darfur Darfur Dialogue and Consultation (DDDC) due to an
inability to identify a reasonable number of participants.
They added that, with support for the DPA lagging, public
opinion is against the DDDC, which is tainted by its
association with the agreement. Similar fragmentation has
occurred within the Arab tribes. The UNOCHA head in Zalingei
said that the Arabs had divided into three groups: 1) Those
that remain independent from external forces, 2) Those that
have allied with the National Redemption Front, and 3) Those
that remain allied with the Sudanese government. Minawi told
CDA Hume that Arab tribesmen in the Muhajeria area of South
Darfur have reached out to him to express grievances against
Sudanese government policies.

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Transitional Darfur Regional Authority
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5. (C) The Sudanese government's decision to initiate
appointments to the TDRA, without the prior concurrence of
Senior Assistant to the President and Sudan Liberation
Movement (SLM) leader Minni Minawi, will exacerbate the
intra-ethnic divisions, according to UN and NGO leaders. In
all three states, the Government has begun to divide
localities according to tribal control and to appoint DPA and
Declaration of Commitment (DoC) signatories to both state and
local positions. Overall, the SLM/Minawi will hold an
estimated 50 percent of the positions in the government,
lessening the incentives for the non-signatories to join the
peace process. DoC signatory and SLM/Free Will leader
Abdulgassem Imam was appointed governor of West Darfur on
February 21. Rumored for weeks, UN and INGO officials
predicted that Abdulgassem's appointment would further divide

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the Fur community, as he has led regular attacks on the
forces allied with Abdul Wahid al-Nur.

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Influence of Outside Actors
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6. (C) Sudanese government officials, UN agency heads, and
INGO leaders were unanimous in their condemnation of Chad,
Eritrea, and Libya's negative influence on the political
process. Given Sudanese-Libyan tensions and the lingering
disunity of the rebel movements, they were skeptical of a
Libyan-sponsored dialogue for non-signatories in Tripoli. On
the eve of this initiative, the chief of the UN Department of
Safety and Security (UNDSS) in El Fasher said that the
non-signatories "give you the answers that you want to hear"
and were unlikely to commit to a political process at this
time given the plethora of regional agendas.

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Comment
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7. (C) The fragmentation of rebel groups makes it difficult
to launch a political dialogue that the Sudanese government
says it wants. The Sudanese government has fostered
divisions within the rebel movements, but it now complains
about the consequences. Sudan's policy of the past six
months has shown again that Darfur cannot be stabilized
through military action. No solution will be found in a
single meeting of the non-signatories. UN Envoy Jan Eliasson
and AU Envoy Salim Ahmed Salim have to create a process and a
structure that engages rebel leaders in sustained talks. End
comment.
HUME