Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KHARTOUM216
2007-02-14 03:56:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Khartoum
Cable title:  

Darfur Security Update, February 8

Tags:  PGOV KPKO ASEC SOCI AU UN US SU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0002
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKH #0216/01 0450356
ZNR UUUUU ZZH (CCY AD7E4FFD MSI7932 538)
P 140356Z FEB 07
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6108
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000216 

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (TEXT)

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/SPG, AF/RSA, AND S/CRS
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KPKO ASEC SOCI AU UN US SU
SUBJECT: Darfur Security Update, February 8

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000216

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (TEXT)

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/SPG, AF/RSA, AND S/CRS
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KPKO ASEC SOCI AU UN US SU
SUBJECT: Darfur Security Update, February 8


1. (SBU) Summary: UNDSS characterizes the security situation in
Darfur over the past week as "calm but unpredictable." The threat
of carjackings persists, especially in areas with increased Arab
militia activity, and there remains the possibility of military
confrontation between Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and non-signatory
forces in East Jebel Marra. UNDSS is considering, in consultation
with the local NGO community, measures to impede future vehicle
thefts. End summary.

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Darfur Security Landscape
--------------


2. (SBU) In its weekly security briefing on February 8, UN
Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS) officials described
conditions throughout the region as "calm but unpredictable." In
North Darfur, things remain quiet in El Fasher, while Sudanese Armed
Forces (SAF) continue to maintain a heavy presence in the vicinity
of Kutum, Kebkabiya, and Mellit. Tribal fighting near Kebkabiya on
February 4 resulted in a mobilization of Arab militia, though
tensions have since dissipated with the intervention of community
leaders. In Tawila, friction between SAF and SLA-Minawi elements
(over police station manning and water point access) led to
heightened states of alert and low-level confrontations on both
sides, though their respective leaders have since ordered forces to
stand down. (Note: A February 8 UNDSS ground assessment of Tawila
concluded that the situation was sufficiently stable for
humanitarian organizations to continue operating there. End note.)



3. (SBU) In South Darfur, UNDSS estimates that the most likely area
of military activity is East Jebel Marra, where SAF troops have been
reinforced for a possible attack against SLA-Abdel Wahid elements.
UNDSS posited that the Sudanese government intends to clear East
Jebel Marra of all rebel elements in its ongoing effort to control
this strategic terrain, and advised NGOs to exercise extreme caution
if operating in the area. There have also been unconfirmed reports,
according to UNDSS, of Arab militia movement originating near

Gereida and heading to North Darfur, which could create tensions as
the armed group encounters the local and humanitarian communities en
route. In separate conversations with S/CRS Poloff, UN officials
speculated that the Arab militia displacement may be the result of
high level discussions in Khartoum between Minni Minawi and the Wali
of South Darfur to resolve the problem; UNDSS also reports that they
were informed by the National Intelligence and Security Service
(NISS) that Minawi agreed to withdraw his soldiers within two weeks
from Gereida and Muhajeria and re-position them in Sudanese
government-provided camps outside of the two towns.


4. (SBU) Near West Darfur, UNDSS highlighted periodic fighting over
the past ten days in and around Adre on the Chad side of the border.
In its daily report, the UN noted that on February 6, Chadian
National Forces (FANT) engaged Chadian deserters who had joined
Chadian Armed Opposition Group (CAOG) near Adre. UNDSS further
noted that "this is the second act of desertion in a week by the
Chadian military personnel. On 2 February 2007, a Chadian army
Colonel from the Goran tribe deserted the service with an assortment
of weapons and personnel and joined the rebel groups opposing the
Chadian Government."

--------------
Carjackings Continue
--------------


5. (SBU) The threat of carjackings continues throughout Darfur and
the rising incidence of vehicle thefts is further shrinking the
already narrow humanitarian space. UNDSS highlighted at least three
recent attempted or successful carjackings within the previous two
days, noting that there has been a steady trend of thefts taking
place within internally displaced person (IDP) camps and inside NGO
compounds. Based on its own analysis and input from the NGO
community, UNDSS assesses that the rise in carjackings is most
likely attributable to either: (a) armed groups (any affiliation)
deliberately targeting NGO vehicles to increase their transportation
capacity, perhaps in advance of renewed military operations; or (b)
criminal elements or bandits exploiting a security vacuum in many
parts of Darfur - particularly in IDP camps where there is
essentially no AMIS presence - for economic gain. With fewer
humanitarian agencies operating in the field and using the roads,
carjackers can no longer wait for the vehicles to come to them; they
appear to be more willing to break into NGO compounds to access the
vehicles directly.


6. (SBU) In consultation with the humanitarian community, UNDSS is
considering a variety of means to counter the threat of carjackings.
The UN is lobbying AMIS to increase its presence in and around IDP
camps. It is also considering the possibility of coordinated "NGO
convoys" where humanitarian agencies travel together to pre-arranged

destinations within a defined timeframe. Yet another option
mentioned during the briefing was installing GPS tracking devices in
humanitarian organizations' vehicles. (Note: UNDSS Chief Security
Advisor Stephen Gluning met February 10 with the humanitarian
community to discuss measures that might be taken to enhance vehicle
security while at the same time not stifling humanitarian
activities. Additional analysis on carjackings provided septel.
End note.)

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COMMENT
--------------


7. (SBU) The ever tightening humanitarian space in Darfur has become
even more constricted with the rise in carjackings targeting NGO
vehicles, though AMIS and PAE have also been victims. The most
obvious implications of increased vehicle theft are a reduction in
humanitarian agencies' capacity to move in the field and a
corresponding increase in the transportation capabilities (and
military capacity) of vehicle snatchers. Additionally, the rash of
car thefts - compounded by frequent Sudanese government harassment
and erratic humanitarian access provided by armed factions - has
stricken fear in many of the local NGO community, as evidenced by
shrinking staffs and down-scaled operations. There are no silver
bullets to address the problem. While the AMIS Force Commander
indicated a willingness to increase patrolling near IDP camps, he
can only spread his already-stretched Protection Force so far. NGOs
continue to engage at the field level with local commanders to
ensure both access and security, though this mechanism too appears
increasingly unreliable as areas of control shift and banditry
swells. GPS tracking devices, including models that allow remote
ignition disablement, are an attractive option, but are costly
(especially for NGOs operating on tight budgets) and susceptible to
tampering. A combination of heightened awareness and defensive
measures (such as convoys or increased AMIS patrolling) may be able
to mitigate the carjacking threat in the short term, though
insecurity - whether real or perceived - will continue to disrupt
the delivery of humanitarian services throughout the region.

HUME