CEASEFIRE COMMISSION UNDER UNAMID - LONGTERM PROSPECTS FOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 002045

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: CEASEFIRE COMMISSION UNDER UNAMID - LONGTERM PROSPECTS FOR
IMPROVEMENT

REF: KHARTOUM 1957


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Ceasefire Commission (CFC) needs reform and
the impending transfer of authority from AMIS to UNAMID provides the
opportunity for needed change. However, significant improvement in
CFC operations, which should result in better monitoring and
implementation of the ceasefire, is six months to a year away. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) The CFC is currently ineffectual and suffers from the
signatories' refusal to allow AMIS freedom of movement. Currently
the signatories require party rep presence on all patrols. It is
also ineffective because of: 1) AMIS reluctance to investigate
ceasefire violations robustly; 2) the splintering of the rebel
movements and proliferation of party reps at the sector and
sub-sector level; 3) CFC's striving for consensus for its violation
reports to the Joint Commission; and 4) the movements' reliance upon
Mission Subsistence Allowance (MSA). Everyone agrees the CFC is
broken, but a fix has yet to be found.


3. (SBU) CFC Chair and AMIS/UNAMID Force Commander GEN Agwai
recently proposed several changes to improve CFC operations and
effectiveness under UNAMID. He suggests consolidating signatories
and non-signatories into one chamber (vice two currently) and
reducing the number of reps to one per party. He further proposes
that CFC reps be stationed only at the CFC headquarters in El
Fasher. In addition, he recommends that MSA and all other support
to the party reps be halted, including AMIS/UNAMID ID cards, sleeve
badges or berets, vehicles, computers, cell phones, food and
lodging.


4. (SBU) Reacting to Agwai's proposals, GoS Advisor to President
Bashir, Nafi Ali Nafi, reportedly told Joint Special Representative
(JSR) Rodolphe Adada during a meeting on December 17 that:

- The GoS does not object to stopping MSA payments under UNAMID, but
insists upon the continuation of the CFC as a body;

- Any change in the composition of the CFC, even limiting it to HQ,
would require a review of the DPA. The GoS does not agree to limit
the CFC just to the HQ level in El Fasher and believes CFC reps
should be present at all team sites; and

- The GoS wants the "Second Chamber" of the CFC for non-signatories
closed. (NOTE: The GOS also continues to oppose non-signatory
participation in the "First Chamber").


5. (SBU) JSR Adada stated that UNAMID will not pay "one penny" to
any CFC member nor provide cars, phones or other equipment. He said
that Force Commander Agwai will soon convene a CFC meeting to
discuss the other issues and would then follow up with GoS General
Mohammad Dabi. Adada also promised to call a Joint Commission
meeting to discuss the future of the CFC under UNAMID.


6. (SBU) Note: The CFC's "founding" documents (the N'Djamena
Humanitarian Ceasefire Agreement and the Addis Ababa Agreement on
the Modalities for Establishment of the CFC and DPA) highlight that
it is supposed to have two party reps at CFC HQ and two liaison
officers per party at the Ceasefire Sub-Commission in each Sector.
There is no mention of reps at the sub-sector level. There is also
no requirement for the MSA. The Addis Agreement, however, says
"Observers participating in the monitoring, investigation and
verification exercise, as well as members of the CFC, shall be
funded through the budget of the CFC." Consensus on CFC reports is
not needed and party reps do not have to participate in CFC
investigations. The Joint Commission later created the "Second
Chamber" to inlVe!non-ricnatorusin0v(e#CBC(prg#uss aNd`prvlb$
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