Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KHARTOUM1894
2007-12-02 10:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Khartoum
Cable title:  

NCP AND SPLM READY TO RESUME TALKS BUT DIFFERENCES

Tags:  PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1303
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDU RUEHKUK RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #1894/01 3361025
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 021025Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9396
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001894 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: NCP AND SPLM READY TO RESUME TALKS BUT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN

REF: A. KHARTOUM 1882

B. KHARTOUM 1890

C. KHARTOUM 1709

Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001894

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: NCP AND SPLM READY TO RESUME TALKS BUT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN

REF: A. KHARTOUM 1882

B. KHARTOUM 1890

C. KHARTOUM 1709

Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: President Bashir and First Vice President
Kiir will meet again December 3 to try to clear the way for
the NCP and SPLM to resume negotiations to end their
political stalemate, representatives of both parties
confirmed. The SPLM is still holding out for a negotiating
agenda that includes resolving Abyei, however, while the NCP
would like to remove Abyei from the agenda and leave it for
the Vice Presidents to discuss separately. The SPLM has
confirmed that Salva Kiir, Luka Biong Deng, and possibly
Pagan Amum and Deng Alor will attend the December 5 Sudan
Ministerial with Secretary Rice in Addis Ababa. The NCP
declined (via the MFA) but NCP contacts say it is not out of
the question that the NCP will send a delegation, depending
on the outcome of the Bashir-Kiir meeting. End summary.

SPLM Holding out on Abyei
--------------


2. (C) SPLM Northern Rep Yasir Arman told polchief December 1
that First Vice President Kiir will meet with President
Bashir December 3, which could clear the way for the Sudan
People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) to resume "six-member
committee" negotiations with the National Congress Party
(NCP). However the SPLM wants Abyei to be on the agenda,
while the NCP is insisting that the matter be negotiated
separately. Arman claimed the SPLM has "presented several
options" to the NCP on Abyei, and lack of progress on the
issue proves that the NCP does not want to solve the issue
(some of these options will be waiving some or part of the
Abyei arrears, an oil revenue sharing package, and a
readjusted border closer to what was discussed in early
November - reftel c) . Arman said the SPLM will attend the
December 5 Ministerial with Secretary Rice in Addis, but at a
higher level than previously reported (Ref A). First Vice
President Salva Kiir will attend along with Presidential

Advisor Luka Biong Deng and possibly Foreign
Minister-designee Deng Alor and Secretary General Pagan Amum.


3. (C) Yasir confirmed that former SPLA Commander (from the
Nuba Mountains) and Garang confidante Abdul Aziz Helou has
mended relations with Salva Kiir following a meeting between
the two in Washington and will return to Juba this week to
take up a portfolio in the SPLM Politburo. Meanwhile, Kiir
has convened a Board of Investigation to decide what
penalties to impose on several members of the SPLM who have
undermined the movement. Lam Akol is accused of receiving
funding from the NCP to create a splinter faction within the
SPLM, Tillar Deng is accused of attempting to divide the SPLM
by spreading false rumors that Pagan Amum wanted to overthrow
Salva Kiir. Alieu Ayiey is accused of spreading false
information about the death of John Garang (claiming that the
crash in Uganda was not an accident) in order to divide the
movement.

NCP Warns of Dire Consequences
--------------


4. (C) NCP insider Dirdeiry Mohammed Ahmed confirmed the
December 3 Bashir-Kiir meeting and reported that the
six-member committee has already begun work behind the scenes
to lay the groundwork for both the Presidential meeting and
the negotiating agenda for the six-member committee. He said
the NCP believes it is useless for the committee to discuss
Abyei because that will leave no time to discuss
implementation timelines for border demarcation, troop
redeployments, JIU deployment, and the census, among others.
Dirdeiry said the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) had committed
in the Ceasefire Political Commission (CPC) December 1 to
fully redeploy all forces by January 9.


5. (C) Dirdeiry questioned why the SPLM remains outside the
government when "everything has been solved except Abyei" and
there is critical legislation that must be passed by the
Council of Ministers and the Parliament, including the
national budget which he said will be approved with or
without the SPLM by December 15. Dirdeiry predicted dire
consequences if the SPLM does not commit to resolve all
issues except Abyei and rejoin the government before January

KHARTOUM 00001894 002 OF 002



9. He predicted that if the SPLM does not send its Ministers
back to their posts by January 9, the movement will be under
intense pressure from within not to rejoin the government
until the Abyei issue is solved, "and this could take a long
time." He pointed out that this will only increase the
divisions within the SPLM, and suggested it also carries a
risk for the NCP (for once, we agree, it will increase risks
for both). Dirdeiry said that there are probably many senior
officers in the SAF who, just like President Bashir in 1989,
will become impatient with the incessant NCP-SPLM haggling,
especially if there are not timely elections.


6. (C) Dirdeiry said the NCP is "not opposed in principle" to
attending the December 5 Ministerial in Addis with Secretary
Rice, but he said its attendance will depend on the December
3 Bashir-Kiir meeting. If there is general agreement by the
two parties on the way forward, then the meeting in Addis
could be useful. (Note: This is the second indication by NCP
party officials outside of the GNU that the NCP might attend
the Addis Ministerial (Ref B) though the official response is
still "a polite no" and we have informed the MFA that the
Sudan Ministerial will go forward without them. End note.)
Presidential Assistant Dr. Mustafa Othman Ismail refused on
December 2 to comment publicly on the December 5 Ministerial
which shows the extreme caution the NCP is taking with this
event, despite the MFA's private rejection. In fact, no
Sudanese NCP official has publicly said a word about it.


7. (C) Comment: Despite internal divisions within the SPLM
over negotiating strategy and intense emotions on the Abyei
issue from Ngok Dinka such as Deng Alor and Luka Biong Deng,
the SPLM should seriously consider putting the CPA ahead of
Abyei to ensure that other aspects of the agreement move
forward. It is certainly in their interests to do so for a
host of reasons, including avoidance of further internal
division. If the U.S. reassures the SPLM at a high level
(perhaps at the Addis Ministerial) that the U.S. will engage
on Abyei, they can be convinced to rejoin the GNU and move
forward on the rest of the CPA. The problem is that the SPLM
rightly fears that if they don't get a solution on Abyei now
to their satisfaction, they may never do so. The SPLM is
also considering reasserting the January 9, 2008 deadline to
keep the pressure on. But that pressure works both ways. End
comment.
FERNANDEZ