SUDAN - SECRETARY TO CONVENE A MINISTERIAL ON THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001858

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF/SPG, AF SE NATSIOS, NSC
FOR BPITTMAN AND CHUDSON, ADDIS ABABA PLEASE PASS TO USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2017
TAGS: KPKO PGOV PHUM PREL UN AU IGAD SU
SUBJECT: SUDAN - SECRETARY TO CONVENE A MINISTERIAL ON THE
CPA IN ADDIS

REF: A. STATE 159362


B. KHARTOUM 1852

Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The American invitation to the National
Congress Party (NCP) to participate in a Comprehensive Peace
Agreement (CPA) Ministerial on December 5 in Ethiopia with
Secretary Rice and regional countries has caused

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consternation for NCP officials who are unsure exactly how to
react to an initiative they instinctively fear but don't know
how best to respond to or blunt. End summary.


2. (C) Charge Fernandez notified Sudanese officials on
November 26 of the invitation to the NCP and SPLM by
Secretary of State Rice to attend an Addis Ababa ministerial

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on CPA implementation in Ethiopia. While CG Juba delivered
the message in Juba and CDA notified key SPLM insider Luka
Biong Deng in Khartoum (reftel b),the same message was
delivered to National Congress Party officials in the
Sudanese capital. SPLM leaders received the invitation
positively and promised a formal answer of who will attend by
November 28. The Northern Sudanese are still not quite sure
how to respond to an initiative they fear "would put them on
public trial."


3. (C) CDA first spoke to Presidential Advisor Dr. Mustafa
Othman Ismail about the message. Ismail said that while he
personally welcomed the initiative as a sincere American
effort to be helpful and balanced, others in the Sudanese
regime would not be so charitable. He noted that the MFA,
currently controlled by hardliner Ali Karti, would almost
certainly recommend against attending since this initiative
does two things the NCP wants to avoid: it
"internationalizes" the ongoing crisis between the SPLM and
NCP, and serves as an informal IGAD summit in all but name.
CDA encouraged Ismail to keep an open mind about the
ministerial. He responded that a better way for the
Secretary to exert her influence would be to come to Khartoum

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and Juba, "we would never turn down such a visit" and "it
would look less like a show trial". But he also asked if
there was any time in Addis for a pull-aside bilat between
the NCP and the Secretary.


4. (C) Ismail suggested that the US try to get the message to
often sidelined moderate Vice President Ali Osman Taha even
though he believed that neither President Al-Bashir, nor
Taha, would attend such an event. CDA called Taha's office
where a clearly flustered office director Dirderi said "we'll
let you know if we have any feedback." Once seen as
"America's man" within the NCP, Taha, the architect, with
John Garang, of the CPA, has been marginalized for quite a
while in the party and has kept a low profile but last month
met with SE Natsios - his first formal contact with an
American official in a very long time. Surprisingly
Ambassador Dirderi called back to set up an appointment for
Charge with Taha sometime during the December 3-5 timeframe.


5. (C) The same surprise was to be seen at the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs. Upon reception of the demarche, Protocol
Director Ali Yusuf excused himself to brief acting Foreign
Minister Karti. Ambassador Yusuf then returned and noted that
Karti would give a formal response "either today or tomorrow"
(November 26 or 27) but cautioned CDA to review what the GOS
have been saying recently, criticizing efforts to
internationalize the CPA at this time "in favor of the SPLM".
CDA noted that the CPA is already "international" and that
the US was a witness to it that had actively helped bring it
about, especially with the compromise on Abyei which was an
American effort. In a perhaps related move, a representative
for Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Al-Samani al-Wasila
contacted Charge on November 27 suggesting a return trip to
Washington with the promise of an Al-Bashir letter to
President Bush.


6. (C) Comment: Not surprisingly, the Ministerial proposal
has pleased the SPLM and worries the NCP. For them, the
question is what is the best way to respond to the Americans,
outright rejection or counter-proposal? While the NCP has
been quite open in seeking to blunt recent possible CPA
initiatives by the UN, IGAD and the IGAD Partners Forum, the
American dimension of this initiative is something else. The
NCP both fears American power but also longs for American
attention and approval. Our sense is that the NCP will not
seek to be openly confrontational but try to come up with
counter-offers - meetings in Sudan, visits to Washington,
letters - to avoid an open forum where it could be isolated
and attacked. The aim is the same, to prevent giving its
counterparts in the SPLM a stronger hand to play in the

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ongoing tortuous political confrontation between the two
partners to the CPA. End comment.
FERNANDEZ