Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KHARTOUM1847
2007-11-26 08:19:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Khartoum
Cable title:  

NCP EAGER TO NEGOTIATE WITH SPLM, OPEN TO

Tags:  PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU 
pdf how-to read a cable
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P 260819Z NOV 07 ZDK CTG RUEHBM 5769 3310541
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9295
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001847 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: NCP EAGER TO NEGOTIATE WITH SPLM, OPEN TO
DISCUSSIONS ON ABYEI

REF: A. KHARTOUM 1794


B. KHARTOUM 1780

C. KHARTOUM 1761

KHARTOUM 00001847 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001847

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: NCP EAGER TO NEGOTIATE WITH SPLM, OPEN TO
DISCUSSIONS ON ABYEI

REF: A. KHARTOUM 1794


B. KHARTOUM 1780

C. KHARTOUM 1761

KHARTOUM 00001847 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: NCP negotiator Dirdeiry Mohammad Ahmed told
polchief November 25 that the NCP is eager to resume
discussions with the SPLM. He claimed SPLM sources told him
that First Vice President Kiir would be open to an invitation
to meet with President Bashir by the end of the week, when
the two would discuss the terms under which the six-member
committee would resume their discussions. The NCP position
is that the six-member committee should leave the question of
Abyei to the two Vice Presidents, but commit themselves to
moving forward on all other CPA implementation issues.
Dirdeiry said the NCP is open to the Abyei Boundary
Commission presenting its report so that the parties may
discuss options for resolving their differences. The NCP
preference is for arbitration to resolve their differences.
He said Abyei should not block progress on other areas of the
CPA. End summary.

NCP EAGER TO RESUME TALKS
--------------


2. (C) NCP insider Dirdeiry Mohammed Ahmed told polchief
November 25 that the NCP is eager to find a way for the SPLM
to resume negotiations with the NCP and rejoin the Government
of National Unity by the end of the year. He claimed
President Bashir had invited First Vice President Kiir to
attend a ceremony in his home town of Shendi on November 23
but that Kiir had declined. Dirdeiry said Luka Biong Deng
would travel to Khartoum November 25 to request a
Presidential meeting (Bashir, Taha, and Kiir) to discuss the
terms under which the NCP-SPLM six-member committee would
resume its discussions. (Note: According to press reports,
Luka did arrive in Khartoum November 25 to initiate
discussions with the NCP. End note.) Dirdeiry said the NCP
position is that the six-member committee should leave the
question of Abyei to the two Vice Presidents, but move

forward on implementation plans for all other aspects of
their November 2 agreement - the census, redeployment of
forces, demarcation of the border, and ministerial
appointments, among others. In the meantime a temporary
administration for Abyei should be put in place and both SPLA
and SAF forces should be redeployed immediately.

NCP THINKING ON ABYEI
--------------


3. (C) Dirdeiry said the NCP's preferred option to resolve
the Abyei dispute is arbitration. He claimed the NCP will
never accept the Abyei Boundary Commission (ABC) report but
is open to having the ABC experts present their report so
that the two parties may respond to it. Dirdeiry who was the
NCP representative to the ABC, said the experts exceeded
their mandate and went way beyond what was stipulated in the
Abyei Protocol, which called on them to define the nine Ngok
Dinka kingdoms in 1905. Dirdeiry showed polchief numerous
scanned maps and written references to Abyei from 1905 (taken
from references in libraries in England, almost eighty
documents in total) several of which describe the northern
Ngok border as the Bahr al Arab.


4. (C) Dirdeiry said the NCP is irritated by First Vice
President Kiir's statements in the media following his visit
to Washington that the U.S. Administration will insist on
implementation of the ABC report. They are very suspicious
of possible American-SPLM collusion to "internationalize" the
issue through IGAD or some other fora.(Comment: Some of these
media reports seem exaggerated, but it would be useful to
know what Kiir was told regarding the U.S. position on the
ABC report. End Comment.) Kiir said the NCP would be willing
to allow the experts to present their report, but that both
sides should be allowed to respond with their own documents
and then decide on a mechanism to resolve the dispute. He
said the experts have no credibility because they exceeded
their mandate, were paid consultants to the SPLM on other
matters (in the case of Johnson, he claimed),and had
recently made public statements regarding the ABC report that
rendered them impartial. Dirdeiry suggested that an
"ultimate" arbiter from another region would be preferable if
the two sides are not able to negotiate a settlement between

KHARTOUM 00001847 002 OF 002


themselves. Alternatively, if the goal is to respect the
terms of the CPA, the ABC panel could be reconstituted and
could issue a final report that has been agreed to by the
parties.

CONCERNS ABOUT JIU
--------------


5. (C) Dirdeiry said the NCP is very concerned about recent
events on the ground in Abyei. He claimed that there has
been an increase in the number of SPLA troops near Heglig, an
area which should be demilitarized. He also accused the SPLA
of illegally demanding that the Misseriya nomads turn their
weapons over to the SPLA before crossing the Bahr al Arab
with their cattle. Dirdeiry said the NCP has received a
letter from SRSG Qazi requesting an emergency session of the
Ceasefire Political Commission (CPC) for November 27 due to
the failure of the Ceasefire Joint Military Commission (CJMC)
to reach agreement on redeployment. He said the NCP is
demanding that the SRSG clearly define why the CJMC meeting
failed, which Dirdeiry claimed was due to the SPLA's
inability to provide a detailed plan for redeployment from
South Kordofan (the SPLA is in no hurry to redeploy from
South Kordofan while SAF units are still in the South).

COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) The NCP will benefit from the continuing delays in
respolving the Abyei issue, both financially (it is not yet
paying the SPLM, Misseriya, or Dinka their share of oil
revenues for Abyei while the dispute remains unresolved) and
politically (Abyei delayed progress on other aspects of the
CPA). However the NCP is keen for the SPLM to rejoin the GNU
so it can regain some of the credibility it lost when its
Southern CPA partner withdrew its ministers. This provides
the SPLM some leverage but not enough to gain what it wants
on Abyei. The SPLM will likely have to settle for an
arbitration mechanism or a reconstituted ABC panel, which
would have the benefit of following more closely the terms of
the CPA. While Dirdeiry's analysis sounds plausible, the
problem remains the deep lack of trust the SPLM (rightly) has
on the NCP's intentions and the SPLM's inability to date to
map out an effective endgame strategy that would allow both
sides to claim victory in this standoff. End comment.
FERNANDEZ