AEC CHAIRS DISCUSS NEXT CHAIRMAN/POSSIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001828

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: AEC CHAIRS DISCUSS NEXT CHAIRMAN/POSSIBLE
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

REF: A. KHARTOUM 1803

B. KHARTOUM 1813

Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez for reasons 1.4 b/d


1. (C) SUMMARY: At a November 20 urgent AEC working group
chairperson meeting called by the UK Ambassador, Attendees
(US, UK, Netherlands, Norway, Italy) discussed the draft UK
paper on "Future Direction" of the AEC, a possible UK nominee
for the AEC chairmanship, and the proposed Rome preparatory
meeting for an international conference on the CPA. On the
latter, the Italian Ambassador said Rome does not want to
hold the conference unless both parties (SPLM and NCP) agree
to it. The Italians don't want the NCP to perceive the
meeting as an opportunity for the international community to
pressure them over the current stalemate in Khartoum between
themselves and the SPLM. Coordinators agreed to try to
secure higher-level representation from capitals for the
December AEC plenary (rather than outgoing AEC Chairman
Vraalsen's idea of doing this on November 27). Post requests
that the Department consider sending a senior representative
to the mid-December Plenary (Office Director or higher) to
demonstrate U.S. commitment to a strengthened AEC. End
summary.

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Intl Conference: Italians avoid confrontation with NCP
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2. (C) The Italian Ambassador briefed on the status of
planning for the international conference on the
Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). He said he spoke
November 19 with his MFA Director General, and planning is
proceeding for a preparatory conference in Rome o/a December

17. The aim of the prep conference will be to discuss the
idea and timing of an international conference on the CPA,
and what might be achieved and whether the time is right for
such an event. Invitations are going out not/not to the IPF
(IGAD Partners Forum) countries, but rather to the Sudan
"Contact Group" countries. He suggested that the earliest
feasible date for the actual international conference would
be toward the end of January 2008, if not later. The Italian
Ambassador said he had an initial positive reaction to the
conference from the SPLM, but is now awaiting a formal
response (the SPLM will almost certainly be eager to attend,
especially if the current crisis continues). The Ambassador
said he discussed the idea of the conference with the NCP
before the current political crisis (with then FM Lam Akol
and Minister of State Al-Samani al-Wasila),and subsequently
had presented a brief concept paper on the conference to
Presidential Adviser Mustafa Osman Ismail. Mustafa's
immediate reaction was that this might not be an opportune
time for the conference because of the ongoing crisis between
the NCP and the SPLM. CDA Fernandez observed that the NCP
doesn't want the conference during the crisis because they
expect it would be used to pressure the NCP to make
concessions to the SPLM. The Italian Ambassador said because
of that consideration, his government was not eager to hold
the conference unless both parties agree to attend.
(Comment: This condition would effectively give the NCP veto
power over the international conference, which it will use
since it seeks to avoid international meddling in CPA
implementation. End comment)

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Paper on AEC: Pass to other observers, then to parties
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3. (C) The UK Ambassador asked for ideas on the UK-drafted
white paper "Assessment and Evaluation Commission: Future
Direction." The UK Ambassador noted the consensus on the
paper, and said the next question is "how do we act on it?"
The consensus among those present was that a "sanitized
version" of the paper would be prepared to be passed to the
other AEC international observers (Kenya, Ethiopia, AU, UN,
Arab League, EC) to seek their thoughts on it without
subjecting it to any sort of extensive revision. The paper
would then be presented to the two parties as a "discussion
document," to people like the NCP's Said al-Khatib and the
SPLM's Kosti Manibe. CDA Fernandez said this version should
be drafted so as not to cause difficulties "if it were to
appear on the front page of a Sudanese newspaper." The aim
of the document is to lay out to the NCP the need for a more
independent and empowered AEC chairman. Of those present,
only the Italian expressed misgivings, saying his MFA is not

KHARTOUM 00001828 002 OF 002


convinced that the best approach is to work the subject with
the NCP before a new chairman has been appointed. The other
Coordinators support the idea of trying to resolve the
question of the Chairmanship's powers before a new chairman
is named. CDA Fernandez noted that this approach would be
performing a real service for the new chairman, so he/she
would not have to perform this dirty work as the first order
of business on arrival in Khartoum. The Italian Ambassador
agreed to seek clearance from his government so that action
on the paper can move forward.

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New Chair: In absence of candidates, UK has a candidate
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4. (C) The UK ambassador said her government has a possible
candidate for the next chairman, and asked whether others
were thinking of nominating anyone. The Netherlands
ambassador said they had stopped looking when they heard the
UK had a candidate, the Norwegian added that "my impression
is that Oslo is happy that the UK is seeking someone." Thus
it appears that the UK candidate will have a clear field for
the nomination, assuming no local party has objections to the
individual.

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December Plenary should have high-level representation
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5 (C) The final agenda item was the level of representation
at the next AEC Plenary meeting, tentatively scheduled for
either November 26 or 27. However, at a previous meeting AEC
Chairman Tom Vraalsen requested that the working groups all
be represented by higher-ranking officials from capitals (Ref
A). The Italian Ambassador said his country would probably
be represented by the MFA Director for Sub-Saharan Africa.
After others indicated they probably would not have
representation from capitals, it was recommended to suggest
to the AEC Chairman that this high-level presence take place
in a plenary during the first half of December. Moreover,
several reps noted that there was insufficient time before
the late November date to permit higher-level representation.
The meeting would have to be scheduled before December 15,
Vraalsen's departure date.


6. (C) Other news to emerge from the meeting: Italy has not
decided whether it will replace its AEC researcher, and the
Germans apparently have not decided whether to replace the
AEC legal adviser. Both incumbents are due to depart
Khartoum about the same time as the Chairman. The Ethiopian
observer at the AEC recently died, and is expected to be
replaced at meetings by someone from the embassy for the time
being.


7. (C) Comment: The discussion revealed a broad consensus
among members that the post of AEC Chairman must be beefed up
now with increased independence as the best hope of
revitalizing the AEC, although the Italian wobbliness is
worrying. The mid-December Plenary will be Chairman
Vraalsen's swan song, after which it appears that the AEC may
be leaderless for some time, due to the departure of the
entire non-Sudanese staff as well as the Kenyan
vice-chairman. Post suggests that Department give serious
consideration to sending a senior level representative to the
mid-December AEC plenary (Office Director or higher) as a
means of boosting the institution and impressing on the NCP
the importance that the U.S. places on an effective AEC. It
may also allow for further discussion of the AEC paper with
Sudanese officials.
FERNANDEZ