S/E NATSIOS' MEETING WITH SPLA SENIOR LEADERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001723

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, S/E NATSIOS AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS SU
SUBJECT: S/E NATSIOS' MEETING WITH SPLA SENIOR LEADERSHIP

REF: A. KHARTOUM 1557

B. KHARTOUM 1709

Classified By: Charge Alberto Fernandez, reasons: 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (SBU) Summary: During a November 1 meeting in Juba, the
senior leadership of the Sudan People,s Liberation Army
(SPLA),told U.S. Special Envoy Andrew Natsios that the SPLA
is showing restraint in the face of provocations by the Sudan
Armed Forces (SAF) along the North-South border and avowed
the South,s commitment to peace. S/E Natsios said that the
U.S. supports the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the
Southern Sudan Transformation (SST) program. He will
continue his efforts to get Khartoum to accept his proposed
package of confidence building measures (reftel a). SPLA
Chief of Staff Deng also praised the recent high-level SPLA
visit to the U.S. Immediately after the meeting, Southern and
Northern negotiators reach a possible compromise to lower
these tensions between the two forces (reftel b). End
Summary.

--------------
Praise for U.S. Visit
--------------


2. (SBU) SPLA Chief of Staff Lieutenant General (LTG) Oyay
Deng Ajak began by praising the recent U.S. visit of senior
SPLA officers. S/E Natsios asked Deng to summarize what he
had gotten out of his visit. Deng replied that their tours
of U.S. Army training and academic centers had provided
insights that will help guide the SPLA,s transformation.
They also had been impressed with the quality of the U.S.
equipment they had seen. Finally, the SPLA delegation had an
opportunity to meet face-to-face with key USCENTCOM officers
who would be invaluable contacts in the future.


3. (SBU) S/E Natsios commented that 20 percent of the
peacetime U.S. defense budget is devoted to training,
demonstrating the importance of training and education in a
modern military force. He suggested that the SPLA follow the
U.S. example and emphasize training and education. He noted
that many SPLA soldiers today are illiterate and that General
Deng had identified this as a possible area of emphasis for
training. General Deng regretted that most of the SPLA
budget now is spent on salaries but said that "we will spend
what we can on training". S/E Natsios suggested that the
SPLA ask its soldiers if they would be willing to take a pay
cut to fund better training and education.

--------------
SPLM Wants Peace
--------------


4. (SBU) S/E Natsios said that the U.S. remains worried
about the North-South dispute and asked the SPLA commanders
for their assessment of the situation on the ground.
Minister of SPLA Affairs LTG Dominic Dim Deng replied that
SPLA actions are based on the decisions made by Sudan
People,s Liberation Movement (SPLM) political leadership.
The SPLM withdrew its Ministers from the Government of
National Unity (GNU) on October 11 to pressure the ruling
National Congress Party (NCP) to implement the Comprehensive
Peace Agreement (CPA) and is concentrating on a political
solution to the dispute. The SPLA is trying to keep the
situation on the ground under control and avoid a return to
war. The Minister emphasized that the SPLM has no interest
in returning to war. Rather, it seeks economic development,
which only peace can provide.

--------------
Two Incidents
--------------


5. (SBU) LTG Dim described two recent incidents along the
North-South border. According to LTG. Dim, on October 15 ten
people (1 SPLA and 9 SAF including an officer) were killed in
an incident at Numakel-Rumiker in Northern Bahr al-Ghazal
state. When an SAF unit had deployed to the border, the SPLA
had advanced to its side of the border in response. The SAF
attacked the SPLA unit as it advanced but was eventually
repelled and it fled. LTG Deng noted that he had attempted to
contact his SAF counterpart when the incident was happening
but was told "he is unavailable because it is a Friday." In
a second incident on October 24 at Kwek, in Upper Nile State,
the SAF had again advanced on the border preparing to attack
an isolated SPLA platoon. The SPLA had responded by ordering
its units to remain calm and show restraint and conflict had
been avoided. In the second incident, the SAF major in
charge of the advancing forces had apologized to the SPLA

KHARTOUM 00001723 002.3 OF 003


unit, noting that he had been told that "the SPLA was
mistreating and killing civilians."


6. (SBU) The Special Envoy praised this show of
self-restraint. He commented that these incidents
demonstrate why the two sides need to implement his earlier
proposals for a set of confidence building measures. There
must be a mutual withdrawal from the border, with UN
peacekeepers in between the two forces. If NCP is smart, he
commented, it will accept his proposal.


7. (SBU) Generals Dim and Deng objected that the SAF keeps
moving farther south, encroaching into South Sudan. A mutual
withdrawal would leave the SAF in possession of Southern
territory. S/E Natsios responded that the UN could be
allowed to establish a provisional border, from which the two
sides would withdraw. This would be temporary expedient
only, not the permanent North-South boundary.


8. (C) General Dim said that the solution to the dispute is
in the hands of the NCP. S/E Natsios commented that the NCP
is like an alcoholic and cannot control itself. It keeps
repeating the same self-destructive behavior that it has
practiced for the last twenty years.

--------------
Peace is the Right Policy
--------------


9. (SBU) The Special Envoy said he came to Juba to deliver
two messages. First, that peace is the right policy. He
disagreed with those who say CPA is dead or &on life
support.8 He agreed that the CPA is off track, but it still
is salvageable and action must be taken to restart it. Both
North and South will lose the benefits of peace if they
return to war. General Deng agreed that the CPA is good for
the South, and needs to be implemented. In this regard, he
said, much work needs to be done.

--------------
Problems with the SST Program
--------------


10. (SBU) The Special Envoy said that his second message is
that the U.S. supports SST program. He noted U.S.
disappointment with Kenya,s failure to support the program
to train the SPLA in South Sudan, to which the three
governments had agreed. U.S. and SPLA both have invested a
lot of money in the Kenya training program with te US
printing the training manuals. It may become necessary to
find a new country in which to carry out the training. Deng
reported that recently the Kenyans have been more
cooperative. S/E Natsios remarked that then perhaps the U.S.
complaints were being heard in Nairobi but feared that
Sudanese Intelligence had somehow gotten to the Kenyans.


11. (C) S/E Natsios then raised the need to rotate the two
U.S. Colonels who are advising the SPLA. S/E Natsios said
that the U.S. expects the NCP to attempt to prevent the
issuance of visas to their successors. In strict confidence,
he told the SPLA leaders that within one week of Deng Alor,s
taking office as GNU Foreign Minister, the U.S. will deliver
to him personally the passports of the two new U.S. advisors.
Minister Deng should then expedite the issuance of their
visas, before the NCP has an opportunity to block them. He
asked that Deng Alor be advised of this plan beforehand.

--------------
Pulling Back from the Brink
--------------


12. (SBU) Returning to the CPA, S/E Natsios warned the SPLA
to be wary of possible Northern provocation or a
miscalculation leading to conflict. He urged the SPLA
leadership to control their field level commanders, and to be
careful of the actions the SPLA takes in order to avoid
making a provocation or providing the SAF with an excuse.


13. (SBU) The Special Envoy said that the two keys to
pulling back from the brink are: first, resolving the Abyei
border and second, mutual withdrawal of forces from the
North-South border. He would continue to work to convince
the North to accept his proposals. If they refused, he was
prepared to go public with a strong statement. He asked if
there are now any UN Peacekeepers in Abyei. The SPLA leaders
replied that there is one company, but it is restricted to
its garrison. The Special Envoy commented that they need to
be able to get out and patrol.


KHARTOUM 00001723 003.2 OF 003



14. (SBU) Within hours of this meeting, during a six hour
meeting of the Ceasefire Political Commission (CPC) and with
UNMIS mediation, the SAf proposed a series of security
arrangements which could, if fully implemented and monitored,
decrease the tension along border regions between the two
armies.


15. (U) S/E Natsios did not have an opportunity to review
this message before his departure.
FERNANDEZ