NEPAL: PM SAYS NOVEMBER ELECTION LIKELY; POLICE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000858

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MASS PREF KDEM BT NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: PM SAYS NOVEMBER ELECTION LIKELY; POLICE
WILL ENFORCE LAW AND ORDER

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (C) Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala told the
Ambassador April 27 that the eight parties would set a date
for the Constituent Assembly election "very soon," likely for
late November 2007 following Nepal's autumn holidays. The
Ambassador stressed that an election date announcement was
key to keeping the peace process on track and also encouraged
the PM to work with relevant ministries to develop a timeline
of necessary pre-election tasks. The Ambassador implored the
PM to address the dire security environment in Nepal's
districts; the PM responded that he was confident the police
would begin to enforce law and order. The Ambassador
informed the PM that the 4,600 stored U.S. rifles planned for
the Nepal Army had to be redirected for use in Lebanon.
Expressing appreciation for the GON's support in moving
forward Bhutanese refugee resettlement, the Ambassador
requested the PM's continued assistance on exit procedures
for the refugees. In response to the PM's inquiries
regarding Chinese policy in Nepal, the Ambassador emphasized
that China's number one priority was Tibet, and that the U.S.
had no indication that the Chinese government was providing
support to the Maoists.

PM Anticipates November Election
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2. (C) The Ambassador stressed to Prime Minister Girija
Prasad Koirala on April 27 that to keep the peace process on
track, the GON had to work with the Election Commission (EC)
and announce a new Constituent Assembly (CA) election date.
The PM said the eight parties would announce the date "very
soon" and he thought the election would follow the conclusion
of Nepal's final fall festival, Chhat, on November 16. The
Ambassador stressed that, once the government had decided on
a date, the EC, Home Ministry, and Ministry for Peace and
Reconstruction, as well as the UN Mission to Nepal (UNMIN),
would have to set a series of milestones to ensure the GON
accomplished necessary pre-election tasks. First and
foremost, a dialogue with marginalized groups had to be
conducted to ensure their buy-in to the electoral process. A
constitutional amendment and election bill would have to be
passed, Phase II vetting of cantonments (e.g. expulsion of
non-combatants and minors) completed, and law and order
re-established across the country to ensure a secure
environment for the election.

Law-and-Order Crisis Continues
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3. (C) The Ambassador highlighted to the PM the continued
security crisis across Nepal's countryside, imploring the PM
to enforce law and order against Maoist abuses and address
instability across Nepal's southern Terai due to agitating
marginalized groups. The Ambassador said that, in recent
trips outside the capital, he and Emboffs had witnessed no
improvements in the security situation. Emboffs had heard
reports that the Maoist Youth Communist League were teaching
recruits how to steal ballot boxes; moreover Maoist
perpetrators of violence faced no legal ramifications. The
PM said he was confident that the police would now begin to
enforce law and order. The Ambassador stressed that the Nepal
Police needed more that just additional resources, they
needed strong leadership and a morale boost to carry out
their jobs.

Ambassador Asks PM for Messages to Carry to Washington
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4. (C) The Ambassador said he would be returning to
Washington for consultations and asked the PM if he had any
messages to convey. The PM said, "you know what is best,"
agreeing with the Ambassador that the focus had to be on
securing additional resources to support a successful CA
election. The PM asked whether the U.S. was reconsidering
its terrorist label for the Maoists. The Ambassador said the

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U.S. had no intention of reconsidering the terrorist label or
U.S. contact policy with the Maoists until they changed their
behavior and joined the political mainstream.

PM Pushing UNMIN to Begin Vetting Process
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5. (C) Dr. Suresh Chalise, the PM's Foreign Policy Advisor,
said he had been pushing Ian Martin, Chief of UNMIN, to begin
Phase II of arms management -- vetting of the 30,000
purported People's Liberation Army (PLA) combatants in 28
cantonment sites under UN monitoring. Chalise expressed
frustration that the Maoists were paralyzing the process and
stressed that Martin had to "assert himself" to encourage
forward movement in arms management. The Ambassador agreed
that the vetting process needed to begin and implored the PM
as well to pressure the Maoists to that end. The PM asked
the Ambassador what future options the GON might explore
beyond integrating Maoists into GON security forces. The
Ambassador said that the GON should look to the international
community for help in rehabilitation, such as vocational
training for agriculture and industry. If the Nepal Army
were downsized, the Ambassador added, former soldiers would
also need options for employment.

Ambassador Informs PM that Rifles Were Redirected
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6. (C) The Ambassador told the PM that the 4,600 U.S.
rifles planned for the Nepal Army that had been sitting in
storage facilities, had been redirected for use in Lebanon.
(Note: The PM had no immediate reaction to this news. End
note.)

Exit Permission Next Hurdle for Refugee Resettlement
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7. (C) The Ambassador expressed his appreciation to the PM
for the GON's cooperation in moving forward on U.S.
resettlement efforts for Bhutanese refugees. The Ambassador
emphasized that the next hurdle would be securing exit
permission for the approximately 1,000 Bhutanese per month
that would need to be processed, asking for the PM's and
Chalise's support in tackling this necessary step for
successful resettlement.

PM Curious on China's Priorities in Nepal
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8. (C) The PM asked the Ambassador for his thoughts on
China's policy in Nepal; Koirala appeared to imply that there
might be a regional rivalry between Indian and China in Nepal
and that China might be secretly supporting the Maoists.
(Note: The PM was scheduled to meet with the new Chinese
Ambassador later in the day. End Note.) The Ambassador
emphasized that China's number one priority in Nepal was
Tibet, which colored all other policies. While not pushing a
particular type of government for Nepal, China was interested
in stability at its border, the Ambassador said, and would
not want to see Nepal splinter along ethnic lines. The
Ambassador hypothesized that China wanted to keep
communication channels open with the Maoists in case they
were able to take over the government. However, the United
States had no knowledge of the Chinese government providing
support to the Maoists; any arms coming to the Maoists from
China were likely through black market and unofficial
channels. The Ambassador noted India's political, cultural,
economic and historic ties to Nepal; China appeared to
acknowledge India's dominance in Nepal.

Comment
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9. (C) While it is heartening to hear the PM will work
toward the announcement of a new Constituent Assembly
election date in November, the eight parties will have to
agree. This is always an arduous process and one fraught
with the potential for a variety of outcomes. Current calls
by the Maoists for a referendum on the monarchy or a

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declaration of a republic could easily undermine the search
for consensus. Without an official election date and a
timeline of necessary pre-election tasks, Nepal is not likely
to make much progress toward peace and democracy. We will
continue to push to end the ambiguity, highlighting the
importance of an election for Nepal's future as a democracy.
The PM's seeming passivity on enforcing law and order is
disturbing. We will keep up the pressure on the GON at the
highest levels to direct and support the Nepal Police to
counter Maoist abuses and deal responsibly with agitating
groups in Nepal's southern Terai. Without improved law and
order, the potential for a credible CA election will
disappear.
MORIARTY